Event Gaps: AI model experiment
Five event-driven gap calls per run, scored on the target session open-to-close return against SPY. Every model answers the same fixed prompt; the site runs it itself and publishes each run once it settles. Read the prompt · How scoring works.
The record so far
The site's own settled runs, by model. Every figure is shown with the number of runs behind it.
| Model | Horizon | Settled runs | Picks with positive alpha | Average alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | 1d | 1 | 60% | +0.50% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1d | 13 | 54% | +0.37% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 1d | 6 | 47% | +0.36% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | 1d | 1 | 60% | +0.29% |
| Perplexity | 1d | 20 | 49% | +0.03% |
| GPT-6 | 1d | 15 | 43% | +0.01% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1d | 22 | 49% | +0.01% |
| Grok 4.5 | 1d | 19 | 45% | -0.02% |
| Grok 4 | 1d | 1 | 40% | -0.09% |
| DeepSeek | 1d | 22 | 50% | -0.20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1d | 1 | 40% | -0.25% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1d | 6 | 57% | -0.31% |
| Grok 4.7 | 1d | 2 | 50% | -0.67% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1d | 10 | 38% | -1.01% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1d | 7 | 40% | -1.42% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | 1d | 1 | 40% | -1.84% |
| Kimi | 1d | 1 | 20% | -5.18% |
Runs
171 runs. Page 1 of 7.
| Model | Horizon | Session | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 1-day | 2026-10-27 | Open | |
| Grok 4.7 | 1-day | 2026-10-27 | Open | |
| GPT-6 | 1-day | 2026-10-27 | Open | |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1-day | 2026-10-27 | Open | |
| Perplexity | 1-day | 2026-10-27 | Open | |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1-day | 2026-10-27 | Open | |
| GPT-6 | 1-day | 2026-10-26 | AMKR, SOFI, CLS, RMBS, CDNS | +2.22% |
| Grok 4.7 | 1-day | 2026-10-26 | CDNS, BA, SOFI, HOOD, NUE | +1.85% |
| DeepSeek | 1-day | 2026-10-26 | CLS, WHR, NBR, HOOD, GLW | -0.17% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1-day | 2026-10-26 | WHR, SOFI, VZ, CDNS, HOOD | +1.81% |
| Perplexity | 1-day | 2026-10-26 | VZ, SOFI, STX, BA, HOOD | -1.86% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 1-day | 2026-10-23 | GGG, ALLE, CRS, DECK, MRNA | -1.40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1-day | 2026-10-23 | ROP, ALLE, POOL, TTMI, CRS | +2.03% |
| Grok 4.7 | 1-day | 2026-10-23 | AXP, SLB, VZ, BAH, META | -3.19% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1-day | 2026-10-23 | CCI, TSLA, TXN, IBM, T | +1.92% |
| GPT-6 | 1-day | 2026-10-23 | MRNA, WDC, LRCX, SLB, ALLE | -2.21% |
| DeepSeek | 1-day | 2026-10-23 | DECK, CCI, AMT, SKYD, NCLH | -1.56% |
| GPT-6 | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | WDC, BE, DECK, AXP, SPOT | +0.59% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | META, RCUS, SMCI, LRCX, TSLA | +1.22% |
| Perplexity | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | SPOT, LMT, LRCX, T, NFLX | +0.27% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | BHVN, ALLE, LRCX, IBM, TSLA | +0.29% |
| DeepSeek | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | PG, SPOT, LMT, BMI, EFX | -1.35% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | ALLE, PG, CSX, SPOT, LMT | +0.42% |
| Grok 4.5 | 1-day | 2026-10-22 | SPOT, AAL, WDC, BE, TSLA | -0.58% |
| GPT-6 | 1-day | 2026-10-21 | NFLX, SMCI, SPCX, TSLA, T | -1.82% |
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