Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-22
DeepSeek picked PG, SPOT, LMT, BMI, EFX for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.35%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.35% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.19% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PG | -2.67% | -2.67% | 66% | -2.47% | No | |
| 2 | SPOT | +0.50% | -0.50% | 60% | -0.30% | No | |
| 3 | LMT | +1.82% | +1.82% | 69% | +2.01% | Yes | |
| 4 | BMI | +4.12% | -4.12% | 58% | -3.92% | No | |
| 5 | EFX | -2.27% | -2.27% | 62% | -2.08% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are mixed-to-lower intraday on 22 October 2026, with the Nasdaq down sharply while several earnings reporters are higher. The tape favors company-specific earnings reactions over broad beta, but one-day spikes without proportional fundamental beats are vulnerable to profit-taking into the next session.
Why each pick
PG
Latest quote: $165.95 at 2026-10-22T15:18:47Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 4 minutes stale at the prediction time). PG reported fiscal Q1 2027 EPS of $2.00 versus the $1.89 estimate and organic revenue growth of 4%, the fastest in three years, before the open on 22 October; the beat is a verified fact, while the inference is that volume-led growth and defensive demand can support the shares for another session. The stock is already up about 5.8%, so much of the beat is reflected. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 158.33/159.95/156.79/157.08/16,414,000; 16 Oct 157.75/159.98/157.56/159.35/13,532,400; 19 Oct 157.87/158.49/157.01/157.69/10,091,100; 20 Oct 158.70/159.47/158.06/159.32/9,746,200; 21 Oct 158.17/158.67/156.80/156.84/9,989,749. return_5d_pct = +0.20% (156.84 vs 156.53 five sessions earlier). high_20d = 159.98; low_20d = 143.40; avg_volume_20d = 8,911,742 shares (Yahoo quote average volume, used as a 20-day proxy). The 21 October bar was a small inside-day close near the lower end, but the 22 October gap up and hold above $161.78 supports continuation rather than reversal. Counter-evidence: the mean analyst target is $162.13, below the current price, and a 5.8% one-day gain in a low-beta staple can invite profit-taking. Invalidation: a regular-session close below $161.78 would undermine the continuation-up thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price, not an exchange-reported dollar-volume figure.
SPOT
Latest quote: $571.37 at 2026-10-22T15:21:45Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 1 minute stale at the prediction time). Spotify reported Q3 2026 results before the open: paying subscribers rose 2% to 306 million and monthly active users reached 788 million, but EPS came in at $2.48 versus the $2.81 estimate, an 11.6% miss. The subscriber and margin-trend facts are verified; the inference that margin improvement outweighs the EPS miss is speculative, and the stock's 8%-plus gap-up with a fade from the $588.88 intraday high suggests emotional rather than purely fundamental buying. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 518.70/533.84/513.65/533.37/1,614,200; 16 Oct 536.98/536.98/521.84/530.46/1,737,700; 19 Oct 524.13/528.52/511.17/518.76/1,639,600; 20 Oct 523.00/536.74/521.06/526.08/1,723,300; 21 Oct 510.00/531.00/508.01/525.34/2,140,355. return_5d_pct = +0.26% (525.34 vs 523.96). high_20d = 540.82; low_20d = 470.51; avg_volume_20d = 1,681,164 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The 21 October bar closed in the middle of its range after a lower open, while the 22 October gap-up faded from $588.88 to $571.37, which supports a reversal-down call for the remaining window. Counter-evidence: subscriber growth and improving margins are genuine positives, and the stock could stabilize if the market focuses on the margin outlook. Invalidation: a regular-session close above $588.88 would undermine the reversal-down thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
LMT
Latest quote: $586.72 at 2026-10-22T15:16:00Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 6 minutes stale at the prediction time). Lockheed Martin reported Q3 2026 EPS of $7.97 versus the $7.52 estimate before the open and the stock is up 6.4%, with the intraday high at $607.99 and the low at $577.50. The EPS beat is a verified fact; the inference is that low-beta defense demand and the initial gap hold can support a further relative gain, although the fade from the high is a warning. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 531.00/534.25/526.07/532.64/1,428,100; 16 Oct 539.11/553.14/536.69/552.09/1,600,000; 19 Oct 540.97/554.72/540.00/548.23/1,377,800; 20 Oct 553.00/559.48/545.73/548.71/1,469,900; 21 Oct 547.14/552.82/544.66/551.51/1,470,304. return_5d_pct = +5.61% (551.51 vs 522.23). high_20d = 559.48; low_20d = 497.00; avg_volume_20d = 1,182,103 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The five-session path shows higher lows and a push above the prior 20-day high, and the 22 October gap-up is holding above the 21 October close, which supports continuation. Counter-evidence: the stock is already 6.4% higher and has faded from $607.99, so the risk is that the earnings pop is mostly priced. Invalidation: a regular-session close below $577.50 would undermine the continuation-up thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
BMI
Latest quote: $146.97 at 2026-10-22T15:22:24Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (essentially current at the prediction time). Badger Meter reported Q3 2026 EPS of $1.24 versus the $1.22 estimate, only a 1.8% beat, yet the stock gapped down to $130.00 and then surged to $149.00, now up 11.5%. The EPS beat is verified, but the size of the move is far larger than the fundamental surprise, which suggests a squeeze or sentiment-driven re-rating rather than a proportional change in business expectations. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 127.81/130.05/124.08/126.88/426,800; 16 Oct 127.04/129.24/125.87/126.48/308,100; 19 Oct 127.07/128.30/125.73/126.26/313,700; 20 Oct 126.20/129.43/125.05/129.01/378,800; 21 Oct 130.14/132.81/127.01/131.86/764,938. return_5d_pct = +2.65% (131.86 vs 128.46). high_20d = 133.80; low_20d = 122.00; avg_volume_20d = 394,437 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The 21 October bar closed near its high on elevated volume, but the 22 October gap-down reversal to $149.00 is an extreme intraday swing that often mean-reverts. Counter-evidence: the stock is holding most of the gain and the volume is not exhausted, so a further squeeze is possible. Invalidation: a regular-session close above $149.00 would undermine the reversal-down thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
EFX
Latest quote: $185.64 at 2026-10-22T15:15:20Z, live regular-session Yahoo Finance quote (about 7 minutes stale at the prediction time). Equifax reported Q3 2026 EPS of $2.26 versus the $2.20 estimate before the open on 20 October and the stock jumped 11.3% that session; it is up another 5.7% on 22 October. The EPS beat and revenue growth are verified facts; the inference is that post-earnings drift can continue for one more session, although the stock is already extended. Completed sessions: 15 Oct 153.24/161.49/151.96/161.26/1,994,200; 16 Oct 161.77/164.33/159.40/161.25/2,351,800; 19 Oct 159.08/159.93/157.08/158.57/2,123,700; 20 Oct 166.11/177.80/166.11/176.54/3,986,100; 21 Oct 175.78/177.26/172.76/175.57/2,535,585. return_5d_pct = +16.77% (175.57 vs 150.36). high_20d = 177.80; low_20d = 137.01; avg_volume_20d = 1,610,112 shares (Yahoo quote average volume proxy). The stock closed near the high of a large gap-up on 20 October, consolidated on 21 October, and is now making a new high, which supports continuation. Counter-evidence: a 16.8% five-session gain and a price above the $198.40 mean target leave little fundamental cushion, and profit-taking could begin at any time. Invalidation: a regular-session close below $172.76 would undermine the continuation-up thesis. ADV is a computed proxy from average share volume times the latest price.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | ALLE, PG, CSX, SPOT, LMT | +0.42% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | SPOT, AAL, WDC, BE, TSLA | -0.58% | 80% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | BHVN, ALLE, LRCX, IBM, TSLA | +0.29% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | META, RCUS, SMCI, LRCX, TSLA | +1.22% | 80% |
| Perplexity | SPOT, LMT, LRCX, T, NFLX | +0.27% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | WDC, BE, DECK, AXP, SPOT | +0.59% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-22.
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