Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-22
Muse Spark 1.1 picked META, RCUS, SMCI, LRCX, TSLA for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.22%. Picks with positive alpha: 80%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.22% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -0.19% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | META | -1.88% | -1.88% | 75% | -1.69% | No | |
| 2 | RCUS | -2.62% | +2.62% | 72% | +2.81% | Yes | |
| 3 | SMCI | +0.28% | +0.28% | 68% | +0.48% | Yes | |
| 4 | LRCX | -1.97% | +1.97% | 66% | +2.16% | Yes | |
| 5 | TSLA | -2.13% | +2.13% | 65% | +2.33% | Yes |
The model's market view
S&P 500 closed Oct 21 at 7757.17 +0.58% with Nasdaq +1.05% led by SpaceX first profit and Super Micro raised outlook, but futures fell Oct 22 after Tesla and Meta earnings. Meta revenue rose 26% to $64.6B beating $63.34B estimate and rose 1-2% extended, Tesla beat EPS $0.48 vs $0.43 but cut 2026 capex to $20B and fell 3-5% extended. SPY was $773.09 +0.53% on Oct 22. For the next session, earnings dispersion and dilutive offerings should drive sharp moves versus SPY.
Why each pick
META
Completed daily history (ET, regular sessions by prediction_time):
2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 694.25 vol 19485224
2026-10-21 open 676.35 high 681.07 low 648.26 close 697.52 vol 19485224
return_5d_pct null (six closes not verifiable), high_20d null, low_20d null, avg_volume_20d 19600000 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/META/price-history
Intraday evidence at answering: latest_price 697.52 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T08:01:18-04:00 source https://coincentral.com/stock-market-today-us-stock-futures-fall-after-tesla-and-meta-earnings/ type delayed regular-session close, with overnight extended quote 713.20 up 2.25% vs close. Also finnhub current 653.9365 open 676.35 high 681.07 low 648.26 previous close 697.52.
Price path before event: Oct 20 close ~694.25 to Oct 21 close 697.52 +0.47% flat into earnings.
Observed reaction: After close Oct 21, revenue $64.6B beat $63.37B LSEG consensus and EPS $3.83 vs $3.57 expected, shares rose 1-2% extended then 5% after hours per CNBC, overnight to 713.20.
Expected after current quote: Further upside over remaining window as AI investment payoff narrative spreads, targeting +4% vs SPY. Catalyst appears partially reflected in after-hours but not fully in regular close 697.52. Support: 50-day $662.27, 200-day $632.62. Invalidation: daily close below $648.26 intraday low or guidance cut. Counter-evidence: futures down 0.7-0.9% S&P and 1.3-1.6% Nasdaq after earnings, high capex may weigh.
RCUS
Completed daily history:
2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 23.75 vol null
2026-10-21 open null high 24.47 low 18.98 close 19.10 vol 4572326
return_5d_pct null, high_20d 31.74, low_20d 16.41, avg_volume_20d 1340000 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/RCUS/price-history
Intraday evidence: latest_price 19.099 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T02:58:00Z source https://www.tradingview.com/news/ type delayed regular open, open 17.43 high 19.62 low 17.43 previous close 19.10. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 22 open 17.43 high 19.62 low 17.43 cumulative vol null as of 09:30 ET.
Price path before event: Oct 20 close 23.75 flat before investor day.
Observed reaction: Oct 21 close 19.10 down -19.58% after launching underwritten offering of common stock per swingfolio, then offering priced at $17.50 per share for 14.3M shares on Oct 22 02:58 UTC, gap down to 17.43.
Expected after: Further downside over window as $250M dilution overhang and $17.50 offer below market creates supply, targeting -6% vs SPY. Much of catalyst not yet fully reflected as stock still above offer price 19.099 vs 17.50. Support: $16.41 low. Invalidation: close above $24.47 high or offering cancellation. Counter-evidence: Wedbush raised target to $49.
SMCI
Completed daily history:
2026-10-15 open null high 35.12 low 32.38 close null vol 37696946
2026-10-16 open null high 34.62 low 31.43 close null vol 44217920
2026-10-19 open null high 33.18 low 31.92 close null vol 30394835
2026-10-20 open null high 33.17 low 30.92 close 32.47 vol 42353065
2026-10-21 open 36.42 high 37.45 low 35.14 close 35.57 vol 82415750
return_5d_pct null, high_20d 45.77, low_20d 30.92, avg_volume_20d 35869153 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/SMCI/price-history
Intraday evidence: latest_price 33.49 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockscan.io/stocks/SMCI/price-history type delayed regular-session close Oct 22, open 34.78 high 34.92 low 33.11 vol 16130929, down -6.13% from Oct 21 close.
Price path before event: Oct 15-20 downtrend from 35.12 high to 30.92 low, close 32.47.
Observed reaction: Oct 21 forecast quarterly revenue and margin above estimates per Reuters, close 35.57 +9.55% vs prior 32.47 on 1.9x volume, top gainer.
Expected after: Continuation up over remaining window as raised outlook changes fundamentals, targeting +5% vs SPY, with Oct 22 pullback to 33.49 offering entry. Partially reflected: +9.55% already priced, but still below 20-day high 45.77. Invalidation: close below $30.92 Oct low or guidance withdrawal. Counter-evidence: Oct 22 down -6.13% suggests profit-taking.
LRCX
Completed daily history:
2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 263.45 vol 70700
2026-10-21 open 270.90 high 270.90 low 259.04 close 260.81 vol 14727233
return_5d_pct null, high_20d 438.50, low_20d 134.88, avg_volume_20d 3985858 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/LRCX/price-history
Intraday evidence: latest_price 233.94 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T09:30:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/ type delayed regular open, open 234.5 high 242.1 low 232.201 previous close 260.81, pre-market 239.15 -21.66 -8.30% as of 05:25 ET Oct 22. PARTIAL SESSION high 242.1 low 232.201.
Price path before event: Oct 20 close 263.45 to Oct 21 close 260.81 -1.00% flat before earnings.
Observed reaction: Fiscal Q1 revenue $8.22B beat $8.14B consensus record, EPS $2.20 beat $2.18, but shares tumbled about 8% to $242 overnight per TradingView due to supply snags and China slowdown.
Expected after: Further downside over window as beat already reflected and guidance concerns weigh, targeting -5% vs SPY. Catalyst partially reflected: beat priced but drop shows sentiment shift. Invalidation: close above $270.90 high or supply issue resolved. Counter-evidence: 5 consecutive record quarters, 54% YoY growth.
TSLA
Completed daily history:
2026-10-15 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-16 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-19 open null high null low null close null vol null
2026-10-20 open null high null low null close 373.71 vol null
2026-10-21 open 381.43 high 388.84 low 380.51 close 386.47 vol 35545938
return_5d_pct null, high_20d 600.0, low_20d 128.11, avg_volume_20d 35545938 shares, source https://stockscan.io/stocks/TSLA/price-history
Intraday evidence: latest_price 386.47 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T08:01:18-04:00 source https://coincentral.com/stock-market-today-us-stock-futures-fall-after-tesla-and-meta-earnings/ type delayed regular close Oct 21, previous close 373.71, plus premarket $367.20 down -5.0% per Investing.com. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 22 premarket low $367.20.
Price path before event: Oct 20 close 373.71 to Oct 21 close 386.47 +3.41% into earnings.
Observed reaction: Q3 EPS $0.48 beat $0.43, revenue $28.05B beat $27.88B, but capex cut to $20B from >$25B and operating income fell 56% to $718M, shares fell 3-5% extended, premarket $367.20 -5.0% biggest loss in 7 weeks.
Expected after: Downside continuation over window as capex cut signals slower growth despite beat, targeting -4% vs SPY. Catalyst partially reflected: beat already priced in +3.41% Oct 21, but cut not fully priced until premarket drop. Invalidation: close above $388.84 high or merger with SpaceX confirmed. Counter-evidence: deliveries 486,532 and Musk merger committee may support.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | ALLE, PG, CSX, SPOT, LMT | +0.42% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | SPOT, AAL, WDC, BE, TSLA | -0.58% | 80% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash | BHVN, ALLE, LRCX, IBM, TSLA | +0.29% | 60% |
| Perplexity | SPOT, LMT, LRCX, T, NFLX | +0.27% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | PG, SPOT, LMT, BMI, EFX | -1.35% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | WDC, BE, DECK, AXP, SPOT | +0.59% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-22.
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