Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-10-26
Grok 4.7 picked CDNS, BA, SOFI, HOOD, NUE for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.85%. Picks with positive alpha: 80%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.7 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-26 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-27 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.85% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +0.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CDNS | +1.90% | +1.90% | 72% | +1.67% | Yes | |
| 2 | BA | -10.43% | -10.43% | 68% | -10.66% | No | |
| 3 | SOFI | +12.26% | +12.26% | 65% | +12.03% | Yes | |
| 4 | HOOD | +2.08% | +2.08% | 60% | +1.85% | Yes | |
| 5 | NUE | +4.59% | +4.59% | 63% | +4.35% | Yes |
The model's market view
Busy earnings week with Fed decision midweek is driving volatility; anticipation of results from high-beta names and operational updates can produce sharp 1-day moves even before full reaction. Telecom and AI-linked software face mixed sentiment after recent sector weakness, while aerospace and steel see operational tailwinds. Emotional continuation risk is elevated given recent tech selloff and oil strength.
Why each pick
CDNS
CDNS reports Q3 2026 earnings after the close today (officially scheduled, call 5:00 PM ET). Consensus ~$2.05 EPS / $1.61B revenue; company has beaten in recent quarters with AI design-tool demand supporting backlog. Fact: results not yet released. Inference: anticipation of beat and guidance can lift shares into the close and overnight. Strongest counter: recent 5% drop on Oct 22 and broader tech pressure. Price/volume: last 5 completed sessions (Oct 19-23) show recovery to 316.49 close on Oct 23 after dip; volume near avg. 20-session range supports breakout attempt above recent highs if beat. Partial session today (as of ~11:00 AM EDT): open/high/low/volume not fully verified beyond latest quote 330.62 (live regular session, Yahoo); pre-event path elevated on anticipation. Observed reaction null (pre-event). Expect further upside after current quote on beat confirmation. Invalidation: miss or weak AI commentary below $315. Completed daily bars (US Eastern, split-adjusted, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CDNS/history/ and similar): Oct 19 O324.80 H329.84 L321.58 C325.86 V~1.85M; Oct 20 O323.18 H325.64 L316.72 C319.87 V~1.74M; Oct 21 O324.50 H331.50 L322.84 C326.07 V~2.17M; Oct 22 O318.42 H319.46 L306.39 C309.65 V~2.89M; Oct 23 O307.57 H318.15 L305.19 C316.49 V~2.32M. return_5d_pct ~ -0.9 (from ~319.5 prior). high_20d ~361, low_20d ~305, avg_volume_20d ~2.3M. Relative intraday volume not fully established. Latest quote 330.62 USD live regular-session 2026-10-26T15:00:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CDNS/.
BA
BA reports Q3 2026 before open tomorrow Oct 27 (officially scheduled, call 10:30 AM ET). Recent fact: FAA certified 737 MAX 10 on Oct 20, removing overhang. Inference: positive operational update and any cash-flow progress can drive upside; 777 freighter halt is known risk. Strongest counter: persistent production/supplier issues and prior misses. Price/volume last 5 completed (Oct 19-23): range-bound around 188-192 with volume elevated; Oct 23 close 188.35 after dip. 20-session context near lows supports bounce on good news. Partial session today: latest 188.29 (live regular ~11:00 AM EDT Yahoo); pre-event path stable. Observed reaction null. Expect continuation higher after current quote into tomorrow open reaction. Invalidation: weak guidance or further delivery cuts below 185. Completed bars: Oct 19 O190.02 H192.54 L188.72 C191.42 V~5.5M; Oct 20 O190.54 H192.67 L189.40 C190.47 V~7.45M; Oct 21 O191.85 H193.28 L189.12 C192.28 V~5.84M; Oct 22 O191.49 H193.19 L186.76 C187.55 V~6.48M; Oct 23 O185.81 H189.09 L182.40 C188.35 V~6.59M. return_5d_pct ~ -1.5. high_20d ~196, low_20d ~182, avg_volume_20d ~6.5M. Latest quote 188.29 USD live regular-session 2026-10-26T15:00:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/.
SOFI
SOFI reports Q3 2026 before open tomorrow (officially scheduled, release ~7 AM ET, call 8 AM). Growth fintech with recent beats and membership expansion. Fact: results not released. Inference: high-beta name can move sharply on revenue/member growth or guidance. Strongest counter: elevated rates and competitive lending pressure. Price/volume last 5: volatile around 14.3-14.9, high volume; Oct 23 close 14.62. 20-session near recent lows supports rebound. Partial today: latest 14.56 (live ~10:44 AM EDT). Pre-event path modest. Observed reaction null. Expect upside after quote on positive print. Invalidation: miss on deposits or guidance below 14.20. Completed bars approx (sources Yahoo/Stocknear): Oct 19 O14.75 H14.76 L14.27 C14.30 V~39.7M; Oct 20 O14.20 H14.99 L14.18 C14.68 V~45.1M; Oct 21 O14.84 H15.11 L14.66 C14.90 V~33.4M; Oct 22 O14.57 H15.07 L14.57 C14.77 V~40.8M; Oct 23 O14.55 H14.71 L14.24 C14.62 V~38.9M. return_5d_pct ~0.5. high_20d ~16.2, low_20d ~13.9, avg_volume_20d ~45M. Latest quote 14.56 USD live regular-session 2026-10-26T14:44:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOFI/.
HOOD
HOOD reports Q3 2026 after close tomorrow Oct 27 (officially scheduled, call 5:00 PM ET). High-volatility fintech/brokerage with crypto and trading volume sensitivity. Fact: results not released. Inference: anticipation of trading/crypto metrics can drive pre-event move; large historical swings. Strongest counter: recent pullback and retail trading moderation. Price/volume: last 5 completed elevated volume around 90s; Oct 23 close ~95. 20-session volatile. Partial today: latest 93.74 (live ~11:09 AM EDT), modest decline. Pre-event path lower. Observed reaction null. Expect modest further upside into anticipation. Invalidation: weak volumes or guidance below 90. Completed bars limited verification; recent closes near 95. high_20d/low_20d approximate from context. avg_volume_20d high. Latest quote 93.74 USD live regular-session 2026-10-26T15:09:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HOOD/.
NUE
NUE reports Q3 2026 after close today (officially scheduled). Consensus high EPS growth ~$5.7+ on infrastructure/steel demand. Fact: results not released. Inference: strong beat history and price strength support upside reaction. Strongest counter: cyclical steel prices and any guidance caution. Price/volume last 5: elevated around 258-264, volume ~1.2M; Oct 23 close 258.11. 20-session near highs supports continuation. Partial today: latest 258.20 (live ~11:11 AM EDT). Pre-event stable. Observed reaction null. Expect upside after quote on results. Invalidation: miss or lower prices below 250. Completed bars: Oct 19 O~264 H265.83 L257.01 C260.73 V~1.26M; Oct 20 O~256 H262.74 L253.67 C261.50 V~1.42M; Oct 21 O261.50 H266.00 L259.60 C264.54 V~0.96M; Oct 22 O261.60 H262.29 L250.74 C258.06 V~1.53M; Oct 23 O257.48 H264.62 L257.15 C258.11 V~1.17M. return_5d_pct ~0.7. high_20d ~280, low_20d ~229, avg_volume_20d ~1.2M. Latest quote 258.20 USD live regular-session 2026-10-26T15:11:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUE/.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | VZ, SOFI, STX, BA, HOOD | -1.86% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | WHR, SOFI, VZ, CDNS, HOOD | +1.81% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | AMKR, SOFI, CLS, RMBS, CDNS | +2.22% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | CLS, WHR, NBR, HOOD, GLW | -0.17% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-10-26.
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