Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-26
Muse Spark 1.1 picked WHR, SOFI, VZ, CDNS, HOOD for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.81%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-26 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-27 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.81% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WHR | +2.31% | -2.31% | 68% | -2.55% | No | |
| 2 | SOFI | +12.26% | +12.26% | 65% | +12.03% | Yes | |
| 3 | VZ | -0.46% | +0.46% | 62% | +0.23% | Yes | |
| 4 | CDNS | +1.90% | +1.90% | 60% | +1.67% | Yes | |
| 5 | HOOD | +2.08% | -2.08% | 58% | -2.32% | No |
The model's market view
Oct 26 is peak Q3 earnings Monday with Verizon already reporting a mixed beat/miss down 2.5% pre-market. After-close reports from Whirlpool and Cadence today have highest implied moves, and fintechs SoFi before-open and Robinhood after-close Oct 27 set up sharp gap risk. Anticipation of Big Tech on Oct 28 adds beta drag. Selecting high-volume large caps with verified catalysts inside or just after the scoring window to capture continuation and disappointment gaps.
Why each pick
WHR
Thesis: Whirlpool Q3 2026 results after close Oct 26 is confirmed catalyst with 16.8% implied move (largest today). Consensus EPS ~0.78-1.01 vs year-ago 2.09, revenue ~3.94-3.96B, 62% YoY decline expected. Stock down -63.56% YTD, -64.32% 1Y, trading near 52-week low 26.08. Recent downgrades from BofA to $25 Underperform, Stifel to $30 Hold, Longbow to Neutral reflect weakening consumer backdrop. Expect miss on North America volume and guide cut to drive down move into Oct 27 session. Direction down 7% over window.
Risks: Oversold RSI on Oct 21, prior gap up +8.56% Oct 22 on short covering; small cap 1.85B can squeeze. Dividend cut fears already priced may limit downside.
Daily 5d (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/whr/history/ US Eastern regular session):
2026-10-19 open 27.50 high 27.75 low 26.08 close 26.46 volume 4838471
2026-10-20 open 27.38 high 28.85 low 27.04 close 28.04 volume 5065545
2026-10-21 open 28.08 high 28.14 low 26.18 close 26.53 volume 3742516
2026-10-22 open 26.45 high 29.02 low 26.27 close 28.80 volume 4908811
2026-10-23 open 28.18 high 28.60 low 27.50 close 28.11 volume 2788562
return_5d_pct = 100*(28.11/27.89-1)=0.79% using 6th close 27.89 on Oct 16.
high_20d 32.50 low_20d 26.08 avg_volume_20d 3376812.4 shares (last 20 sessions to Oct 23).
Intraday evidence at answering time: latest_price 26.285 USD quote_time 2026-10-26T11:12:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22WHR%22 status delayed regular-session. reference_price 26.285 same source. Partial session Oct 26: open 27.93 high 28.25 low 26.00 volume 2978306 as of 11:12 ET. Pre-event path: gap down -5.39% Oct 21 with lower wick to 26.18, then strong upper wick recovery Oct 22 +8.56% closing near high, then doji Oct 23 closing mid-range. Volume Oct 20-22 above avg (~4.9M vs 3.37M avg) shows capitulation then short-cover continuation, not exhaustion. No observed post-event reaction yet as event after close. Further move thesis supported by anticipation selling already visible intraday -5.85% today. Counter-evidence: Oct 22 bullish engulfing could support reversal if earnings beat low bar. Invalidation: close above 29.02 (Oct 22 high) or official guidance raising FY EPS above 3.00 would invalidate down thesis.
SOFI
Thesis: SoFi Technologies Q3 2026 earnings before open Oct 27 8am ET call is within scoring window (window ends 15:11Z Oct 27, after US open). Consensus EPS 0.1663-0.17 on revenue 1.25-1.26B, +55% EPS YoY, +30% revenue. Stock at 52-week low 13.86 Oct 15, down -44% YTD, -49% 1Y, beta 2.29. Short interest high, prior quarter beat by 0.01. Expect beat on lending and tech platform plus stablecoin progress to drive short squeeze up.
Risks: Analysts increasingly bearish with Sell ratings, price targets imply upside but stock fell 1.05% Oct 23 on heavy volume 38.7M. Crypto exposure may drag.
Daily 5d (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/history/ US Eastern):
2026-10-19 open 14.75 high 14.76 low 14.27 close 14.30 volume 39764876
2026-10-20 open 14.20 high 14.99 low 14.18 close 14.68 volume 45090880
2026-10-21 open 14.84 high 15.11 low 14.66 close 14.90 volume 33347919
2026-10-22 open 14.57 high 15.07 low 14.57 close 14.77 volume 40811402
2026-10-23 open 14.55 high 14.71 low 14.24 close 14.62 volume 38747124
return_5d_pct 0.48% (14.62/14.55-1 vs Oct 16 close 14.55).
high_20d 16.42 low_20d 13.86 avg_volume_20d 45327398.55 shares.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 14.575 USD quote_time 2026-10-26T11:12:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22SOFI%22 delayed regular. Partial Oct 26 open 14.54 high 14.67 low 14.40 volume 11.3M as of 11:12 ET, down -0.24% showing pre-earnings consolidation. Price path: lower wick hammer Oct 20 +2.66% on volume 45M > avg, then small upper wicks Oct 21-22 closing near highs but failing at 15.11, indicating indecision. Volume above avg supports continuation potential. Observed pre-event price 14.62 close Oct 23, no reaction yet. Further up move depends on EPS >0.17 and revenue >1.26B plus stablecoin guidance. Counter-evidence: five consecutive closes below 50-day average and downtrend since Sep. Invalidation: earnings EPS <0.14 or revenue <1.20B or guide cut on margins would invalidate up thesis; price breakdown below 13.86 low would confirm failure.
VZ
Thesis: Verizon Q3 2026 earnings released Oct 26 7:10 AM ET is observed fact. Reported adjusted EPS 1.31 vs consensus 1.27-1.29 beat by 0.04, up 8.3% YoY, GAAP 1.25 up 6.8%. Revenue 34.31B up 1.5% YoY but missed consensus (StockStory). Postpaid phone gain nearly doubled estimates, EBITDA record 13.8B, raised FY EPS guide to 5.04-5.06. Market reaction negative: stock down -2.45% intraday despite EPS beat due to revenue miss, equipment sales -9%, service revenue per account -1.9%, SpaceX spectrum threat repricing. Expect continuation down as revenue quality concerns outweigh EPS beat over next session.
Risks: Dividend yield 6.35% and low beta 0.26 may attract defensive buying, raised guide could limit downside.
Daily 5d (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vz/history/ US Eastern):
2026-10-19 open 44.24 high 44.60 low 44.00 close 44.15 volume 15967541
2026-10-20 open 44.53 high 45.10 low 44.35 close 44.54 volume 26243472
2026-10-21 open 43.00 high 44.05 low 43.00 close 43.56 volume 29839709
2026-10-22 open 43.85 high 45.29 low 43.78 close 45.20 volume 28220652
2026-10-23 open 43.60 high 45.08 low 43.43 close 44.66 volume 51121209
return_5d_pct -0.29% (44.66/44.79-1 vs Oct 16 44.79).
high_20d 47.10 low_20d 40.81 avg_volume_20d 27538393.2 shares.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 43.565 USD quote_time 2026-10-26T11:10:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22VZ%22 delayed regular. Partial Oct 26 open 43.49 high 43.82 low 42.47 volume not full day but 51M on Oct 23 vs avg 27M shows high volume selling. Price path before event: Oct 9 gap down -8.75% from 42.83 to 41.65 on 94.6M volume (SpaceX spectrum acquisition), then recovery to 45.20 Oct 22 closing near high with upper wick, indicating exhaustion. Closing position Oct 23 mid-range. Current quote 43.565 is -2.45% vs prior close 44.66, representing observed post-event reaction of -2.45% from pre-event close 44.66. Further down expected as revenue miss persists. Counter-evidence: EPS beat and guide raise typically bullish. Invalidation: close above 45.29 (Oct 22 high) or renewed buyback announcement would invalidate down thesis.
CDNS
Thesis: Cadence Design Systems Q3 2026 earnings after close Oct 26 5pm ET is scheduled catalyst. Consensus EPS 2.04-2.05 on revenue 1.61B, FY guide 8.05-8.15. AI-powered EDA momentum, record revenue expected >1.34B benchmark. Stock up +3.56% to 327.76 as of 10:44 AM ET Oct 26 ahead of print, showing anticipation long. Prior quarter beat 13.89% (1.64 vs 1.44). Expect beat and raise to drive up move into Oct 27 session.
Risks: High valuation PE 61.5, market cap 84.85B, any guide cut on AI capex could cause reversal. Recent down from all-time high 416.69 June 2.
Daily 5d (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cdns/history/ US Eastern):
2026-10-19 open 324.80 high 329.84 low 321.58 close 325.86 volume 1854741
2026-10-20 open 323.18 high 325.64 low 316.72 close 319.87 volume 1739661
2026-10-21 open 324.50 high 331.50 low 322.84 close 326.07 volume 2156985
2026-10-22 open 318.42 high 319.47 low 306.39 close 309.65 volume 2870811
2026-10-23 open 307.57 high 318.15 low 305.19 close 316.49 volume 2320977
return_5d_pct -0.95% (316.49/319.51-1 vs Oct 16 319.51).
high_20d 361.91 low_20d 305.19 avg_volume_20d 2189748.05 shares.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 329.65 USD quote_time 2026-10-26T11:12:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22CDNS%22 delayed regular. Partial Oct 26 open 316.975 high 331.65 low 315.35 volume ~2.3M, up +4.16% vs prior close showing strong pre-event accumulation. Price action: Oct 22 large lower wick down to 306.39 -5.04% then recovery Oct 23 +2.21% closing near high 316.49, indicating buying support at 305.19 low. Volume Oct 22 2.87M above 20d avg 2.18M, exhaustion then reversal. No post-event reaction yet. Further up expected if EPS >2.05 and Q3 guide >2.10. Counter-evidence: Oct 13-14 gap down -4% on MACD cross down. Invalidation: close below 305.19 20-day low or EPS miss below 1.90 would invalidate up thesis.
HOOD
Thesis: Robinhood Q3 2026 earnings after close Oct 27 is officially scheduled, occurring after scoring window ends (window ends 15:11Z Oct 27, earnings after 20:00Z). Per rules, anticipation can move target session now. Consensus EPS 0.558-0.56 down -10% YoY, revenue 1.44B up 13% YoY. Stock down -5.09% 5d, -21% 1M, -17% YTD, high beta 2.49. Options traders expect 10.2% move per TipRanks. Recent Wolfe downgrade to Neutral Oct 14 triggered -8.5% day. With SoFi reporting same day before open, fintech sentiment fragile. Expect de-risking down ahead of print.
Risks: Gold subscribers 4.8M, product velocity on Robinhood Chain and Ventures could cause positive surprise. Short-term oversold bounce possible.
Daily 5d (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hood/history/ US Eastern):
2026-10-19 open 100.33 high 101.22 low 96.48 close 96.52 volume 15470080
2026-10-20 open 95.04 high 101.10 low 94.77 close 98.21 volume 14024907
2026-10-21 open 101.37 high 103.15 low 98.88 close 101.93 volume 13907841
2026-10-22 open 97.78 high 101.38 low 95.62 close 96.58 volume 19174465
2026-10-23 open 96.43 high 97.75 low 94.79 close 95.07 volume 13966519
return_5d_pct -3.84% (95.07/98.87-1 vs Oct 16 98.87).
high_20d 123.49 low_20d 94.52 avg_volume_20d 18610152.8 shares.
Intraday evidence: latest_price 93.84 USD quote_time 2026-10-26T08:57:00-04:00 source https://finnhub.io/?q=%22HOOD%22 delayed pre-market. Partial Oct 26 pre-market 93.58 down -1.57% vs close 95.07 showing anticipation selling. Price path: Oct 21 hammer up +3.79% closing near high, then Oct 22 bearish engulfing -5.25% with high volume 19.1M > avg 18.6M, closing near low, indicating exhaustion of bounce. Current low 91.63 near 20d low 94.52 break would signal continuation. No post-event reaction yet. Further down expected as investors hedge into SoFi. Counter-evidence: high 123.49 Sep 30 to low 91.63 Oct 26 already -25% may be priced. Invalidation: close above 101.38 (Oct 22 high) or SoFi strong beat lifting fintech sentiment would invalidate down thesis.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | VZ, SOFI, STX, BA, HOOD | -1.86% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | CDNS, BA, SOFI, HOOD, NUE | +1.85% | 80% |
| GPT-6 | AMKR, SOFI, CLS, RMBS, CDNS | +2.22% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | CLS, WHR, NBR, HOOD, GLW | -0.17% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-26.
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