Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-26
DeepSeek picked CLS, WHR, NBR, HOOD, GLW for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.17%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-26 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-27 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.17% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLS | -0.48% | -0.48% | 65% | -0.71% | No | |
| 2 | WHR | +2.31% | +2.31% | 60% | +2.08% | Yes | |
| 3 | NBR | -3.66% | -3.66% | 60% | -3.89% | No | |
| 4 | HOOD | +2.08% | +2.08% | 70% | +1.85% | Yes | |
| 5 | GLW | +0.03% | +0.03% | 70% | -0.20% | No |
The model's market view
US equities enter a heavy earnings week with the AI trade under scrutiny and the FOMC meeting on 27-28 October adding macro risk. Several high-beta names have sold off sharply into their reports, creating asymmetric event-driven setups where options markets are pricing double-digit moves. I favour oversold quality names with identifiable catalysts and sufficient liquidity, while avoiding micro-caps that fail the price, market-cap or dollar-volume floors.
Why each pick
CLS
Celestica reports Q3 2026 results after the close on 26 October 2026, a scheduled event confirmed by the earnings calendar. The stock has collapsed from a 5 October high of $393.72 to $260.01 on 23 October, a 14.4% five-session decline that left it deeply oversold and below its 20-day range midpoint. Today's intraday rebound to $272.51 (+4.8%) suggests buyers are stepping in ahead of the print. The catalyst is anticipation of AI-driven demand for the company's hardware and connectivity products; a beat could trigger a sharp relief rally, while a miss could extend the sell-off. The strongest counter-evidence is the recent technical breakdown and the fact that the stock is still in a downtrend. A verified close below the 23 October low of $253.71 after earnings would invalidate the bounce thesis.\n\nCompleted daily bars (oldest to newest, regular session, split-adjusted OHLCV):\n2026-10-19: O 314.08, H 315.25, L 300.00, C 300.35, V 1,976,800\n2026-10-20: O 296.28, H 308.32, L 286.35, C 299.69, V 2,076,800\n2026-10-21: O 311.10, H 314.45, L 300.21, C 304.61, V 1,903,700\n2026-10-22: O 289.69, H 291.99, L 267.65, C 269.01, V 3,308,600\n2026-10-23: O 268.00, H 268.00, L 253.71, C 260.01, V 3,132,100\nreturn_5d_pct: -14.42%\nhigh_20d: 393.72\nlow_20d: 253.71\navg_volume_20d: 2,199,641\n\nIntraday evidence: latest_price $272.51, quote_time 2026-10-26T11:13:26-04:00, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLS/history/, quote is live regular-session. Today's partial-session range is $259.52-$273.10 on volume 1,231,771 shares; relative intraday volume versus a same-time baseline cannot be established. The stock is rebounding from an oversold condition, but the event risk remains binary. I forecast a further move up from the current quote over the remaining window.
WHR
Whirlpool reports Q3 2026 results after the close on 26 October 2026, a scheduled event. The stock is trading near multi-year lows at $28.11 and today's intraday price of $26.48 is even weaker, showing that sentiment is extremely negative ahead of the print. Options markets are pricing a 15.8% move, one of the highest in the large-cap universe, reflecting the binary nature of the event. The thesis is that a modest beat or cost-savings update could trigger a violent short-covering rally given the depressed valuation and high implied volatility. The strongest counter-evidence is the continued fundamental deterioration in appliances and the stock's inability to hold rebounds; a miss could easily push shares below $26. A verified close below the 19 October low of $26.08 after earnings would invalidate the upside thesis.\n\nCompleted daily bars (oldest to newest, regular session, split-adjusted OHLCV):\n2026-10-19: O 27.50, H 27.75, L 26.08, C 26.46, V 4,847,600\n2026-10-20: O 27.38, H 28.85, L 27.04, C 28.04, V 5,077,100\n2026-10-21: O 28.08, H 28.14, L 26.18, C 26.53, V 3,746,000\n2026-10-22: O 26.45, H 29.02, L 26.27, C 28.80, V 4,922,800\n2026-10-23: O 28.18, H 28.60, L 27.50, C 28.11, V 2,778,400\nreturn_5d_pct: +0.79%\nhigh_20d: 33.24\nlow_20d: 26.08\navg_volume_20d: 3,500,000\n\nIntraday evidence: latest_price $26.48, quote_time 2026-10-26 (time not available), source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WHR/history/, quote is regular-session but freshness cannot be fully verified. Today's partial-session range is $26.00-$28.25. The stock is already selling off ahead of the event, which may have pulled forward some negative expectations. I forecast a move up from the current quote over the remaining window, but confidence is lower due to the weak fundamental backdrop.
NBR
Nabors Industries reports Q3 2026 results after the close on 27 October 2026, a scheduled event. Options markets are pricing a 16.3% move, among the highest for any US-listed common stock this week. The stock is up 4.2% today to $83.34, suggesting some positive anticipation is already building. The thesis is that strong oil-service activity and international drilling demand could produce a beat, and the high short interest amplifies upside. The strongest counter-evidence is the commodity-sensitive nature of the business and the fact that the stock has been volatile around earnings historically; a miss or weak guidance could reverse today's gains. A verified close below the 22 October low of $74.67 after earnings would invalidate the upside thesis.\n\nCompleted daily bars (oldest to newest, regular session, split-adjusted OHLCV):\n2026-10-19: O 78.22, H 80.26, L 77.38, C 80.06, V 147,100\n2026-10-20: O 80.87, H 81.00, L 77.98, C 80.01, V 179,600\n2026-10-21: O 79.66, H 81.30, L 78.67, C 81.02, V 141,100\n2026-10-22: O 80.41, H 80.41, L 74.67, C 77.80, V 216,500\n2026-10-23: O 78.09, H 82.01, L 78.00, C 81.03, V 248,400\nreturn_5d_pct: +3.62%\nhigh_20d: 84.25\nlow_20d: 74.67\navg_volume_20d: 322,128\n\nIntraday evidence: latest_price $83.34, quote_time 2026-10-26T11:11:33-04:00, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBR/history/, quote is live regular-session. Today's partial-session range is $79.60-$83.89 on volume 29,040 shares; relative intraday volume versus a same-time baseline cannot be established. The stock is already moving up ahead of the event, which may reflect positioning. I forecast a further move up from the current quote over the remaining window.
HOOD
Robinhood reports Q3 2026 results after the close on 27 October 2026, a scheduled event. Options markets imply a 10.2% move, and the stock is down 3.8% over the last five completed sessions, closing at $95.07 on 23 October. Today's intraday price of $93.86 is testing the lower end of the recent range, reflecting cautious positioning. The thesis is that revenue growth of ~13% and continued product expansion could drive a beat, and the stock's high beta and retail-heavy ownership base can amplify a positive surprise. The strongest counter-evidence is the declining crypto-trading environment and the stock's failure to hold above $100; a miss could break the $94.52 support. A verified close below the 15 October low of $94.52 after earnings would invalidate the upside thesis.\n\nCompleted daily bars (oldest to newest, regular session, split-adjusted OHLCV):\n2026-10-19: O 100.32, H 101.21, L 96.47, C 96.52, V 15,470,100\n2026-10-20: O 95.04, H 101.10, L 94.77, C 98.21, V 14,024,900\n2026-10-21: O 101.37, H 103.15, L 98.88, C 101.93, V 13,907,800\n2026-10-22: O 97.78, H 101.38, L 95.62, C 96.58, V 19,174,500\n2026-10-23: O 96.43, H 97.75, L 94.79, C 95.07, V 13,879,700\nreturn_5d_pct: -3.84%\nhigh_20d: 123.49\nlow_20d: 94.52\navg_volume_20d: 18,397,305\n\nIntraday evidence: latest_price $93.86, quote_time 2026-10-26 (time not available), source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HOOD/history/, quote is regular-session but freshness cannot be fully verified. Today's partial-session range is $91.63-$94.19 on volume 6,646,680 shares; relative intraday volume versus a same-time baseline cannot be established. The stock is drifting lower ahead of the event, which may have reduced expectations. I forecast a move up from the current quote over the remaining window.
GLW
Corning reports Q3 2026 results before the market open on 27 October 2026, a scheduled event. Options markets imply a 10.1% move. The stock has fallen from a 6 October high of $170.63 to $123.69 on 23 October, a 6.3% five-session decline, and is now rebounding to $126.98 today. The thesis is that AI-driven demand for optical connectivity and specialty glass remains strong, and consensus EPS growth of 31% could support a relief rally after the recent sell-off. The strongest counter-evidence is the sharp technical breakdown and the possibility that guidance disappoints on solar or display segments; a close below the 23 October low of $121.80 after earnings would invalidate the rebound thesis.\n\nCompleted daily bars (oldest to newest, regular session, split-adjusted OHLCV):\n2026-10-19: O 136.50, H 137.36, L 130.77, C 132.74, V 6,866,800\n2026-10-20: O 129.77, H 133.97, L 127.56, C 132.26, V 6,766,400\n2026-10-21: O 135.51, H 136.77, L 133.22, C 134.92, V 8,227,800\n2026-10-22: O 129.00, H 129.00, L 122.56, C 123.99, V 12,353,000\n2026-10-23: O 123.77, H 126.75, L 121.80, C 123.69, V 8,553,400\nreturn_5d_pct: -6.30%\nhigh_20d: 170.63\nlow_20d: 121.80\navg_volume_20d: 9,982,457\n\nIntraday evidence: latest_price $126.98, quote_time 2026-10-26T11:10:21-04:00, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLW/history/, quote is live regular-session. Today's partial-session range is $122.77-$127.36 on volume 2,708,494 shares; relative intraday volume versus a same-time baseline cannot be established. The stock is already bouncing ahead of the event, suggesting some positive anticipation. I forecast a further move up from the current quote over the remaining window.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | VZ, SOFI, STX, BA, HOOD | -1.86% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | CDNS, BA, SOFI, HOOD, NUE | +1.85% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | WHR, SOFI, VZ, CDNS, HOOD | +1.81% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | AMKR, SOFI, CLS, RMBS, CDNS | +2.22% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-26.
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