Event Gaps: GPT-6's picks for 2026-10-26
GPT-6 picked AMKR, SOFI, CLS, RMBS, CDNS for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +2.22%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-26 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-27 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +2.22% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.23% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMKR | +1.85% | -1.85% | 56% | -2.08% | No | |
| 2 | SOFI | +12.26% | +12.26% | 54% | +12.03% | Yes | |
| 3 | CLS | -0.48% | -0.48% | 55% | -0.71% | No | |
| 4 | RMBS | -0.42% | +0.42% | 53% | +0.18% | Yes | |
| 5 | CDNS | +1.90% | +1.90% | 58% | +1.67% | Yes |
The model's market view
Forecast window: 2026-10-26T15:11:48.240Z to 2026-10-27T15:11:00.000Z. The outlook is cautiously constructive for AI-related technology but vulnerable to earnings disappointments, elevated valuations, interest-rate uncertainty and abrupt sentiment reversals. Five event-driven selections are equally weighted, with three upward and two downward forecasts. The portfolio is evaluated using the average directional return minus SPY's return over the identical window. All five selections satisfy the $5 minimum share price, $1 billion market-capitalization floor and $20 million 20-day average daily dollar-volume floor using the reported source figures and historical calculations. Market capitalizations are converted from Stock Analysis figures displayed in billions of USD, so their precision is limited by the published rounding. Average daily dollar volume is calculated as the arithmetic mean of daily closing price multiplied by daily share volume over the 20 completed regular sessions ending October 23, 2026. October 26 is an unfinished session and is excluded from all historical daily statistics. The positive morning price reaction in several technology stocks is already observable and is not counted as an additional forecast move. Cadence's Maestro product announcement has occurred, but the earnings releases for all five selections remain upcoming at the research cutoff. Intraday price feeds are not perfectly synchronized, and the exact traded prices at the authoritative prediction_time are unavailable. Forecast percentages therefore represent estimated remaining moves from the latest verified quotes, rather than movements already realized. All forecasts are uncertain. Fees, slippage, borrow costs and dividends are excluded.
Why each pick
AMKR
BEARISH EARNINGS THESIS: Amkor Technology is scheduled to announce third-quarter results after the October 26 close. Management previously guided to quarterly EPS of $0.72-$0.82 and revenue of $1.95-$2.05 billion. Analyst expectations are approximately $0.79 EPS and $2.02 billion revenue. These are expectations, not reported Q3 results. Strong demand for advanced AI semiconductor packaging and approximately 30% anticipated sequential Computing revenue growth provide fundamental support. However, weakness in Communications, memory-supply constraints and the Korea-to-Vietnam manufacturing transition create risks to forward guidance. A disappointing outlook could extend the existing selloff. Research: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3013080/buy-sell-or-hold-amkr-stock-key-tips-ahead-of-q3-earnings.
PRICE ACTION: The October 22 session fell 10.70%, opening at $41.37 and closing near its $38.69 low at $39.05. Volume reached 6,306,862 shares, approximately 1.70 times the completed 20-session average. This supports the interpretation of persistent distribution rather than an isolated low-volume decline. October 23 recovered modestly, closing at $39.30 after trading as high as $40.19. That recovery and the company's previous earnings beat are the strongest counter-evidence to the bearish call. The completed five-session return is -6.026%. The October 26 intraday decline is already reflected in the reference quote and is not part of the expected future move. A post-earnings sustained recovery above $41.77, the October 22 high, would invalidate the bearish continuation thesis. A strong Computing outlook could also trigger a substantial short-covering rebound.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=38.31 USD; quote_time=2026-10-26T11:10:00-04:00; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amkr/; quote_type=vendor-labeled real-time regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION as of the displayed 11:10 EDT snapshot: open=38.67, high_so_far=39.14, low_so_far=37.25, cumulative_volume=5129837 shares. These are incomplete session observations, not completed daily bars. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time-of-day baseline. The latest quote represents an approximately 2.52% decline from the previous completed close, not an earnings reaction. Earnings-specific observed reaction=null; verified immediate pre-event price=null; event_to_quote_pct=null; exact scored-window starting price=null; elapsed-window return=null. The forecast concerns additional downside after the quote and the scheduled earnings release.
HISTORICAL OHLCV: Source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amkr/history/; US Eastern regular-session convention; split-adjusted OHLC Close rather than dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Exactly five completed trading sessions, oldest to newest:
2026-10-19 O=43.78 H=43.94 L=41.59 C=41.89 V=3724337
2026-10-20 O=40.79 H=42.39 L=39.92 C=41.70 V=2958885
2026-10-21 O=44.50 H=44.50 L=42.87 C=43.73 V=4209161
2026-10-22 O=41.37 H=41.77 L=38.69 C=39.05 V=6306862
2026-10-23 O=38.59 H=40.19 L=38.52 C=39.30 V=4787655
return_5d_pct=-6.026; high_20d=56.56; low_20d=38.52; avg_volume_20d=3711533 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=176640594. The five-session return uses the October 16 close of $41.82 as its sixth reference close. The 20-session statistics exclude October 26. The quoted price has already moved below the completed 20-session low, but that breakdown alone does not establish further downside.
SOFI
BULLISH EARNINGS THESIS: SoFi Technologies is scheduled to release Q3 2026 financial results at approximately 7:00 a.m. EDT on October 27, followed by its 8:00 a.m. earnings call. Analyst estimates are approximately $0.17 EPS and $1.25 billion revenue, implying roughly 31.6% year-over-year revenue growth. These numbers are expectations, not observed results. Continued member growth, product adoption and improving fee-based revenue could provide an upside catalyst, particularly because the stock has already experienced substantial valuation compression. A favorable earnings report could generate a fresh morning-session reaction before the forecast endpoint. However, the strongest counter-evidence includes analyst concerns about loan-book growth, capital adequacy, rate-sensitive fair-value accounting and potential dilution. A strong revenue figure without convincing profitability and capital guidance may not support a rally. Research: https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/sofi-earnings-on-deck-as-analysts-clash-on-capital-concerns-93CH-4973016.
PRICE ACTION: The October 14 session fell sharply and closed near its low on 92,173,596 shares, about 2.03 times the completed 20-day average. October 15 produced a strong reversal, opening at $13.89 and closing at $15.09 near its high. Subsequent sessions showed mixed follow-through rather than a confirmed sustained uptrend. October 23 closed at $14.62, within its daily range of $14.24-$14.71. The completed five-session return is +0.481%. The latest price remains near the completed 20-session low of $13.86. Being near a low is not sufficient evidence of a rebound; the anticipated earnings surprise is the primary catalyst. The modest October 26 movement has already occurred and is not an earnings reaction. A post-results breakdown below $13.86 would invalidate the bullish thesis. The expected move requires fresh positive information and is not simply a forecast recovery of the previous month's losses.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=14.58 USD; quote_time=2026-10-26T11:12:00-04:00; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/history/; quote_type=vendor-labeled real-time regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION as of the displayed 11:12 EDT snapshot: open=14.54, high_so_far=14.67, low_so_far=14.40, cumulative_volume=11335704 shares. The partial cumulative volume cannot be directly compared against a completed daily average to establish unusual activity. Same-time-of-day relative volume=null. Observed earnings reaction=null because the results remain scheduled. Verified immediate pre-event price=null; event_to_quote_pct=null; exact scored-window starting price=null; elapsed-window return=null. The latest quote is approximately 0.27% below Friday's close, which is not counted again as a prospective movement.
HISTORICAL OHLCV: Source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sofi/history/; US Eastern regular-session convention; split-adjusted OHLC Close rather than dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Exactly five completed trading sessions, oldest to newest:
2026-10-19 O=14.75 H=14.76 L=14.27 C=14.30 V=39764876
2026-10-20 O=14.20 H=14.99 L=14.18 C=14.68 V=45090880
2026-10-21 O=14.84 H=15.11 L=14.66 C=14.90 V=33347919
2026-10-22 O=14.57 H=15.07 L=14.57 C=14.77 V=40811402
2026-10-23 O=14.55 H=14.71 L=14.24 C=14.62 V=38747124
return_5d_pct=+0.481; high_20d=16.42; low_20d=13.86; avg_volume_20d=45327399 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=689432334. The five-session return uses the October 16 close of $14.55 as its sixth reference close. All historical summary statistics exclude October 26.
CLS
BULLISH EARNINGS AND INVESTOR-DAY THESIS: Celestica will publish Q3 2026 results after the October 26 close and conduct a results and Investor/Analyst Day webcast at 8:00 a.m. EDT on October 27. Management intends to discuss business operations, strategic priorities, growth opportunities and financial outlook. These events are officially scheduled, not completed. The potential catalyst is an earnings and forward-guidance update that demonstrates sustained demand for AI data-center hardware and networking infrastructure. The stock's substantial recent correction may create room for a relief rally if operating results support the investment thesis. Contemporary market reporting linked the October 22 selloff to broad AI infrastructure weakness and pre-earnings risk reduction rather than verified new company-specific earnings deterioration. Research: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-celestica-stock-tumbling-today-93CH-4967215. Sentiment deterioration is an inference about positioning and is not proof that fundamentals remain strong.
PRICE ACTION: Celestica declined 11.69% on October 22, opening at $289.69 and closing at $269.01 near the session low. Volume of 3,288,503 shares was approximately 1.53 times the completed 20-session mean. October 23 opened at its high of $268.00, fell to $253.71 and closed at $260.01, displaying another weak daily structure. The completed five-session return was -14.417%, consistent with significant selling pressure. The latest October 26 quote represents an already-observed rebound of approximately 4.58% from Friday's close. That advance is not forecast again. The strongest counter-evidence is the sustained decline and inability of previous bounces to establish a durable reversal. The upcoming management outlook, rather than oversold conditions alone, is the proposed fundamental driver of additional upside. A post-results break below $253.71, the October 23 low and completed 20-session low, would invalidate the relief-rally expectation. A cautious forward outlook could turn the current advance into an exhaustion bounce.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=271.91 USD; quote_time=2026-10-26T11:07:00-04:00; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cls/history/; quote_type=vendor-labeled real-time regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION: October 26 open=267.00. high_so_far=null, low_so_far=null and cumulative_volume=null for a synchronized 11:07 EDT snapshot because the history page lists a partial high of $270.61 below its own quoted latest price of $271.91. The asynchronous fields cannot reliably describe one completed intraday snapshot. Relative intraday volume=null without a same-time-of-day baseline. Actual earnings reaction=null; verified immediate pre-event price=null; event_to_quote_pct=null; exact scored-window starting price=null; elapsed-window return=null. The already-observed morning rebound is excluded from expected_move_pct.
HISTORICAL OHLCV: Source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cls/history/; NYSE US Eastern regular-session convention; split-adjusted OHLC Close rather than dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Exactly five completed trading sessions, oldest to newest:
2026-10-19 O=314.08 H=315.25 L=300.00 C=300.35 V=1958778
2026-10-20 O=296.28 H=308.32 L=286.35 C=299.69 V=2046881
2026-10-21 O=311.10 H=314.45 L=300.21 C=304.61 V=1883861
2026-10-22 O=289.69 H=291.99 L=267.65 C=269.01 V=3288503
2026-10-23 O=268.00 H=268.00 L=253.71 C=260.01 V=3110466
return_5d_pct=-14.417; high_20d=393.72; low_20d=253.71; avg_volume_20d=2146499 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=714182801. The five-session return uses the October 16 close of $303.81 as its sixth reference close. Historical statistics exclude October 26.
RMBS
BEARISH EARNINGS THESIS: Rambus is scheduled to discuss Q3 fiscal 2026 results on October 26 at 5:00 p.m. EDT. The conference call is officially scheduled, but its results remain unknown. Analyst estimates are approximately $0.789 EPS and $213.21 million revenue. These are pre-announcement expectations, not observed results. Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-26-rambus-inc-stock/. Rambus has fundamental exposure to memory-interface technology, high-performance computing and AI data-center infrastructure. That could support sustained growth, but investors may demand convincing evidence of accelerating product revenue and durable profitability. The bearish hypothesis is that results or forward guidance fail to reverse the valuation reset, allowing existing negative momentum to continue. The price decline itself is a sentiment and positioning observation, not verified evidence of fundamental deterioration.
PRICE ACTION: October 22 produced a 7.62% decline with 1,956,100 shares, compared with a completed 20-session average of 1,639,566. October 23 reached $89.22 but fell back to $85.65, close to its $84.43 daily low. The long upper wick suggests selling into attempted strength. The completed five-session return is -1.834%, while the longer 20-session range extends from $84.43 to $114.97. The price is already near the lower boundary of that range, making a sharp rebound a serious risk. The strongest counter-evidence is today's approximately 2.07% observed recovery from Friday's close and the possibility of a positive memory-demand outlook. That intraday rebound is not part of the projected downward move. Continued selling would require fresh disappointing information or renewed risk aversion rather than an assumption that all declines automatically continue. Sustained post-earnings trading above $95.00, the October 21 high, would invalidate the bearish continuation thesis.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=87.42 USD; quote_time=2026-10-26T11:04:00-04:00; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rmbs/; quote_type=vendor-labeled real-time regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION: October 26 open=86.05. high_so_far=null, low_so_far=null and cumulative_volume=null for a synchronized 11:04 EDT snapshot because the quote page displays $87.42 as the latest price but $86.70 as its daily high, demonstrating asynchronous updates. Same-time-of-day relative volume=null. Actual earnings reaction=null; verified immediate pre-event price=null; event_to_quote_pct=null; exact scored-window starting price=null; elapsed-window return=null. The forecast is for new movement after the stated quote, not a repetition of October's earlier declines.
HISTORICAL OHLCV: Source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rmbs/history/; US Eastern regular-session convention; split-adjusted OHLC Close rather than dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Exactly five completed trading sessions, oldest to newest:
2026-10-19 O=91.69 H=94.24 L=90.65 C=92.66 V=1613659
2026-10-20 O=90.87 H=94.84 L=89.00 C=92.42 V=1333847
2026-10-21 O=94.60 H=95.00 L=91.89 C=92.80 V=1606924
2026-10-22 O=88.09 H=90.50 L=85.01 C=85.73 V=1956100
2026-10-23 O=85.72 H=89.22 L=84.43 C=85.65 V=2383837
return_5d_pct=-1.834; high_20d=114.97; low_20d=84.43; avg_volume_20d=1639566 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=162654147. The five-session return uses the October 16 close of $87.25 as its sixth reference close. October 26's unfinished bar is excluded.
CDNS
BULLISH PRODUCT-NEWS AND EARNINGS THESIS: Cadence Design Systems introduced its Nvidia-supported Maestro AI model suite on October 26. Reuters reported the announcement at 13:03 UTC. The product announcement is an observed event, whereas early customer availability in Q4 and resulting commercial benefits are future expectations. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/cadence-unveils-nvidia-backed-ai-models-that-chipmakers-can-run-in-house-2026-10-26/. Cadence is also scheduled to conduct its Q3 financial-results webcast at 5:00 p.m. EDT on October 26. Previously disclosed management expectations included quarterly revenue of $1.595-$1.625 billion and EPS of $2.01-$2.07; analyst consensus was approximately $1.61 billion and $2.04. These remain forecasts rather than reported Q3 numbers. Source: https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/3014100/cadence-to-release-q3-earnings-will-ai-momentum-drive-growth. The bullish hypothesis is that growing demand for AI-enhanced electronic-design automation, together with favorable earnings guidance, can sustain buying beyond the already-observed product-announcement rally. Export restrictions, software spending uncertainty and elevated valuation represent fundamental and positioning risks.
PRICE ACTION: The October 22 session declined 5.04% on 2,870,811 shares, about 1.31 times the completed 20-session volume average. October 23 recovered, opening at $307.57 and closing at $316.49 near its $318.15 high, indicating improved buying interest. The completed five-session return remains -0.945%, showing that a broader recovery was not yet firmly established. Today's latest verified quote is already approximately 4.12% above Friday's close. A meaningful portion of the positive product-news or pre-earnings narrative may therefore be priced in. This previous-close change must not be presented as a pure Maestro-event reaction because a verified immediate pre-announcement price is unavailable. The strongest counter-evidence to further gains is precisely this large observed rally into a potentially high-expectations earnings release. A positive announcement without improved forward guidance could produce sell-the-news selling. A post-report decline below $305.19, the October 23 low, would invalidate the bullish continuation thesis.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=329.54 USD; quote_time=2026-10-26T11:08:00-04:00; quote_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cdns/statistics/; quote_type=vendor-labeled real-time regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION: October 26 open=316.98. high_so_far=null, low_so_far=null and cumulative_volume=null for a synchronized 11:08 EDT snapshot because an earlier historical-page partial high of $327.67 is below the later $329.54 quote. These values cannot reliably be combined into a single contemporaneous intraday bar. Relative intraday volume=null without a verified same-time-of-day baseline. Verified immediate pre-Maestro-announcement price=null; Maestro event_to_quote_pct=null; actual earnings reaction=null because earnings remain upcoming; exact scored-window starting price=null; elapsed-window return=null. The expected upward move is incremental to the current quoted price and does not include today's observed advance.
HISTORICAL OHLCV: Source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cdns/history/; US Eastern regular-session convention; split-adjusted OHLC Close rather than dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Exactly five completed trading sessions, oldest to newest:
2026-10-19 O=324.80 H=329.84 L=321.58 C=325.86 V=1854741
2026-10-20 O=323.18 H=325.64 L=316.72 C=319.87 V=1739661
2026-10-21 O=324.50 H=331.50 L=322.84 C=326.07 V=2156985
2026-10-22 O=318.42 H=319.47 L=306.39 C=309.65 V=2870811
2026-10-23 O=307.57 H=318.15 L=305.19 C=316.49 V=2320333
return_5d_pct=-0.945; high_20d=361.91; low_20d=305.19; avg_volume_20d=2189716 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=730603138. The five-session return uses the October 16 close of $319.51 as its sixth reference close. October 26's partial bar is excluded.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | VZ, SOFI, STX, BA, HOOD | -1.86% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | CDNS, BA, SOFI, HOOD, NUE | +1.85% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | WHR, SOFI, VZ, CDNS, HOOD | +1.81% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | CLS, WHR, NBR, HOOD, GLW | -0.17% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: GPT-6's picks for 2026-10-26.
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