Event Gaps: Claude Opus 5.5's picks for 2026-10-23
Claude Opus 5.5 picked GGG, ALLE, CRS, DECK, MRNA for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.40%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Claude Opus 5.5 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-26 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.40% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.64% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GGG | -1.01% | +1.01% | 55% | +0.37% | Yes | |
| 2 | ALLE | -0.25% | -0.25% | 52% | -0.89% | No | |
| 3 | CRS | +2.03% | -2.03% | 50% | -2.67% | No | |
| 4 | DECK | +0.59% | -0.59% | 50% | -1.24% | No | |
| 5 | MRNA | -1.90% | -1.90% | 45% | -2.55% | No |
The model's market view
Risk-off, event-driven tape on Friday 10-23. On 10-22 the Nasdaq fell more than 2% on AI-capex and credit worries. Today the Dow is down sharply on renewed Middle East tensions with WTI near $102, while SPY is only slightly lower as chips bounce. The window spans a weekend and ends Monday 10-26 at 11:15 ET, so it contains one important scheduled catalyst: the detailed ESMO melanoma presentation for Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine on 10-24. The other four picks are post-earnings drift trades on reports already published. GGG, CRS and DECK are short (down) on fundamental disappointments: margin and guide misses at Graco, an in-line-at-best quarter with negative free cash flow at Carpenter, and an underlying guide that slipped once tariff refunds are excluded at Deckers. ALLE is long (up) on a clean beat-and-raise. Expected moves are measured from the current quotes, not from the prior close; much of each earnings reaction has already happened. Main risks: a broad weekend relief rally that lifts the short legs, a de-escalation headline, and the binary nature of the ESMO data.
Why each pick
GGG
THESIS: Graco's Q3 2026 report (press release dated Wednesday 10-21, before the 10-22 gap) showed record sales up 8%, but only 4 points organic. Gross margin fell about 3 points, operating earnings fell 10% and diluted EPS fell 9% (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000042888/000004288826000145/ggg10212026exhibit991q3.htm). Revenue and EPS missed consensus (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Graco+Inc.+%28GGG%29+Stock+Falls+on+Q3+2026+Earnings). A German-language Goldesel summary reported Q4 revenue guidance of $610-640M, below consensus. FACT vs INFERENCE: the miss, the margin compression and the soft guide are reported facts and change near-term earnings expectations, so this is fundamental rather than sentiment. The view that estimate cuts and de-rating continue into Monday is inference.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GGG?range=2mo&interval=1d):
2026-10-16 O 82.20 H 82.97 L 81.62 C 81.99 V 1191900
2026-10-19 O 81.55 H 81.76 L 80.49 C 80.75 V 1110800
2026-10-20 O 80.58 H 81.25 L 80.19 C 81.09 V 1344400
2026-10-21 O 81.21 H 81.92 L 80.52 C 81.81 V 1716500
2026-10-22 O 73.11 H 74.50 L 67.74 C 69.28 V 5675900
return_5d_pct -15.28 (vs 81.78 close on 10-15); high_20d 82.97; low_20d 67.74; avg_volume_20d 1704145.
PRICE ACTION: a flat pre-earnings week, then a 10.6% gap down and further selling to close in the lower quarter of the range (pos 0.23) on 3.3x average volume. That reads as distribution and supports continuation.
INTRADAY: latest_price 67.44 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:15:56Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GGG/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 68.24, high_so_far 68.535, low_so_far 66.55 (below the 20-day low), cumulative_volume 794510. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline.
(1) Pre-event price: 81.81 close on 10-21. (2) Observed reaction: -17.57% from that close to the current quote, so most of the repricing is already done. (3) Remaining forecast: a further ~2% decline by Monday 11:15 ET as the stock fails to reclaim 69.28 and analysts trim targets.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the stock already bounced from 66.95 to about 68 earlier this morning. Buybacks ($132M in Q3) and broad oversold conditions could fuel a relief move. The ABB data-center cooling partnership is a positive narrative.
INVALIDATION: a recovery above the 10-22 high of 74.50, or a sustained hold above the 10-22 close of 69.28 into Monday.
ALLE
THESIS: Allegion's Q3 2026 results, released 10-22 before the open, showed revenue +9.6% (7.2% organic) and adjusted EPS of $2.60, up 13%. Adjusted operating margin reached 24.7%, and the company raised full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001579241/000157924126000032/exhibit991-pressreleasedat.htm). FACT vs INFERENCE: the beat and raise are facts that change estimates, so they are fundamental. The expectation of continued drift is inference, supported by the stock's roughly 12% rally and drift after its July beat-and-raise.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ALLE?range=2mo&interval=1d):
2026-10-16 O 155.87 H 157.99 L 154.35 C 156.54 V 1128400
2026-10-19 O 155.53 H 156.23 L 154.65 C 155.44 V 834300
2026-10-20 O 155.51 H 157.33 L 155.15 C 157.03 V 1169700
2026-10-21 O 157.21 H 159.00 L 155.66 C 159.00 V 1106400
2026-10-22 O 170.00 H 176.94 L 167.62 C 176.52 V 2097500
return_5d_pct 13.34 (vs 155.75 on 10-15); high_20d 176.94; low_20d 142.00; avg_volume_20d 1058100.
PRICE ACTION: a gap up followed by extension, closing at the session and 20-day high (pos 0.95) on about 2x average volume with no upper wick. That is a breakout pattern that supports continuation.
INTRADAY: latest_price 179.13 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:16:03Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 178.85, high_so_far 179.45, low_so_far 176.17, cumulative_volume 475224. Relative intraday volume cannot be established.
(1) Pre-event price: 159.00 close on 10-21. (2) Observed reaction: +12.66% from that close to the current quote; the stock is also up about 1.5% today while the Dow falls sharply. (3) Remaining forecast: about +1.5% more by Monday, driven by estimate revisions and defensive quality demand.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE: an outsized move for a normally low-beta name invites profit-taking, and a broad weekend selloff could drag it lower regardless of fundamentals.
INVALIDATION: a close below today's partial-session low of 176.17 is an early warning; a close below the 10-22 low of 167.62 invalidates the thesis.
CRS
THESIS: Carpenter Technology reported fiscal Q1 2027 before the 10-22 open, followed by a 10 a.m. ET call (schedule: https://www.mychesco.com/a/news/regional/carpenter-technology-sets-oct-22-earnings-update/). Operating income was $196.4M, only in the lower half of its own $195-200M guide. Sales excluding surcharge grew just 5%, and free cash flow was negative $24.8M as capex nearly doubled (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000017843/000001784326000049/a1stqtrfy2027results.htm). Aerospace-materials peer Hexcel also fell about 9.5% the same day, per Yahoo data. FACT vs INFERENCE: the results figures are facts. The specific call commentary that turned an in-line quarter into a 20% drop (aerospace demand or capacity timing) could not be verified. The thesis that a premium-multiple stock keeps de-rating is inference.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/CRS?range=2mo&interval=1d):
2026-10-16 O 380.56 H 384.55 L 375.19 C 377.09 V 507300
2026-10-19 O 381.30 H 385.40 L 373.37 C 378.51 V 716900
2026-10-20 O 372.13 H 379.60 L 364.01 C 372.53 V 661400
2026-10-21 O 375.04 H 378.30 L 363.10 C 368.16 V 716000
2026-10-22 O 330.00 H 330.00 L 284.27 C 292.26 V 2751500
return_5d_pct -23.20 (vs 380.56 on 10-15); high_20d 399.82; low_20d 284.27; avg_volume_20d 798675.
PRICE ACTION: the stock opened at the session high, sold off and closed near the low (pos 0.17) on 3.4x volume. Today it made a lower low at 278.165. This supports continuation, though the extended decline raises bounce risk.
INTRADAY: latest_price 285.80 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:15:41Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRS/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 282.87, high_so_far 288.105, low_so_far 278.165, cumulative_volume 685346. Relative intraday volume cannot be established.
(1) Pre-event price: 368.16 close on 10-21. (2) Observed reaction: -22.37% to the current quote. (3) Remaining forecast: about -3% by Monday as analyst target cuts follow.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE: EPS actually rose to $3.25 from $2.43 and operating income met guidance, so the fundamental damage may be overstated. The stock is about 23% below its 10-15 close, so mean reversion is plausible.
INVALIDATION: a recovery above the 10-22 open and high of 330; a close back above the 10-22 close of 292.26 is an early warning.
DECK
THESIS: Deckers reported fiscal Q2 2027 on 10-22 after the close (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000910521/000091052126000028/deckex991pressrelease-9302.htm). Record revenue was $1.48B and diluted EPS $2.31, but that EPS includes a $0.28 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. The full-year EPS guide was raised to $7.80-7.95, but it includes about $0.52 of refund benefit. FACT vs INFERENCE: excluding the refund, my arithmetic puts the underlying guide at roughly $7.28-7.43, below the prior $7.35-7.50 range. That is an inference from reported figures, but it explains why CNBC described the quarter as missing expectations and the stock as falling about 6.7% premarket (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stock-market-today-live-update.html). Management also cited a challenging consumer environment and 'deliberate actions' to sharpen execution. That language is a fundamental negative on business momentum, not just sentiment.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/DECK?range=2mo&interval=1d):
2026-10-16 O 87.24 H 87.57 L 85.00 C 85.71 V 2697700
2026-10-19 O 85.77 H 88.40 L 85.21 C 87.24 V 2644800
2026-10-20 O 87.89 H 87.98 L 86.68 C 87.37 V 2803400
2026-10-21 O 86.71 H 86.71 L 84.19 C 85.49 V 2938100
2026-10-22 O 84.55 H 87.92 L 84.21 C 85.28 V 8119300
return_5d_pct -1.50 (vs 86.58 on 10-15); high_20d 88.40; low_20d 77.20; avg_volume_20d 3220485.
PRICE ACTION: the 10-22 regular session, before the report, faded from 87.92 to close mid-range on 2.5x volume, suggesting pre-earnings de-risking. Today's post-report reaction is the first leg. The stock is still above the 20-day low of 77.20, leaving room for continuation.
INTRADAY: latest_price 80.09 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:16:04Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DECK/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). Window-start reference: 80.16 at 15:15Z (Yahoo 1-minute bar). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 80.44, high_so_far 83.70, low_so_far 78.25, cumulative_volume 4399880. Relative intraday volume cannot be established with a same-time baseline. The intraday rebound to 83.70 failed and the stock is back near 80, a weak sign.
(1) Pre-event price: 85.28 close on 10-22. (2) Observed reaction: -6.09% to the current quote. (3) Remaining forecast: about -2.5% by Monday as the market discounts refund-inflated EPS and analysts cut underlying estimates.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE: record revenue and heavy buybacks ($637M in the first half) support the stock, and the intraday spike to 83.70 showed dip buyers exist.
INVALIDATION: a recovery above today's partial-session high of 83.70 or the 10-22 close of 85.28.
MRNA
THESIS: the scheduled catalyst inside the window is the detailed late-stage melanoma presentation of Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, at the ESMO congress in Madrid on 10-24 (per 24/7 Wall St, 10-20: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/20/moderna-jumps-7-while-melanoma-vaccine-data-looms-bristol-myers-squibb-rises-5-pfizer-inches-higher/). The exact presentation time was not verified. Already observed: on 10-22 the stock fell as much as about 26% intraday after a leak of partial data. CNBC reported that the full data released Thursday appeared meaningful for patients and positive relative to Wall Street expectations (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stock-market-today-live-update.html). FACT vs INFERENCE: the drop and the CNBC characterization are observed. The view that the selloff was positioning (sell-the-news after a large run-up) rather than an efficacy concern, and that a well-received ESMO presentation can recover part of it, is inference. The ESMO reception is uncertain and binary.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MRNA?range=2mo&interval=1d):
2026-10-16 O 235.00 H 237.96 L 208.92 C 218.01 V 21403300
2026-10-19 O 217.27 H 236.77 L 216.00 C 226.89 V 18788900
2026-10-20 O 226.03 H 243.98 L 216.65 C 242.08 V 16858900
2026-10-21 O 242.20 H 254.48 L 239.55 C 245.81 V 16009400
2026-10-22 O 240.13 H 241.26 L 180.80 C 202.63 V 49777400
return_5d_pct -14.32 (vs 236.50 on 10-15); high_20d 254.48; low_20d 180.80; avg_volume_20d 19454705.
PRICE ACTION: a run-up into the event (a 20-day high on 10-21), then a 10-22 crash to 180.80 with a recovery to 202.63, a very long lower wick on 2.6x volume. That suggests capitulation demand and supports a reversal.
INTRADAY: latest_price 200.70 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:16:03Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). Window-start reference: 200.71 at 15:15Z (Yahoo 1-minute bar). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 196.69, high_so_far 203.82, low_so_far 183.00, cumulative_volume 11425364. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. The morning flush to 183 held above the 10-22 low and was bought back.
(1) Pre-event price for the 10-22 data move: 245.81 close on 10-21, -18.35% to the current quote. For the ESMO presentation itself no reaction exists yet and none is assumed. (2) Observed reaction: the large drop plus today's stabilization. (3) Remaining forecast: about +4% by Monday if the presentation confirms the topline, with anticipation possibly lifting the stock into Friday's close.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the stock is still well below its 10-21 close, and premarket selling of about 5.7% showed supply. It also has a history of violent post-data roundtrips (an 18-24% drop the day after the August Phase 3 headline). Detailed data could disappoint on subgroups or durability.
INVALIDATION: a close below the 10-22 low of 180.80, or a negative reception of the 10-24 ESMO presentation.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | MRNA, WDC, LRCX, SLB, ALLE | -2.21% | 0% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | CCI, TSLA, TXN, IBM, T | +1.92% | 100% |
| Grok 4.7 | AXP, SLB, VZ, BAH, META | -3.19% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ROP, ALLE, POOL, TTMI, CRS | +2.03% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | DECK, CCI, AMT, SKYD, NCLH | -1.56% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Claude Opus 5.5's picks for 2026-10-23.
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