Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-23
Muse Spark 1.1 picked ROP, ALLE, POOL, TTMI, CRS for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +2.03%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-26 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +2.03% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.64% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROP | +1.67% | +1.67% | 75% | +1.03% | Yes | |
| 2 | ALLE | -0.25% | -0.25% | 72% | -0.89% | No | |
| 3 | POOL | -1.05% | -1.05% | 70% | -1.69% | No | |
| 4 | TTMI | +10.93% | +10.93% | 65% | +10.29% | Yes | |
| 5 | CRS | +2.03% | +2.03% | 62% | +1.39% | Yes |
The model's market view
S&P 500 -1.21% to 7663.43 and Nasdaq -2.6% Oct 22 worst since June on AI capex fears after Meta results, Dow flat +0.02%. Breadth 56% advancers despite index drop, defensive rotation to Food +3.91% and industrials. Earnings winners Roper +9.52% to $435.39, Allegion +9.46% to $174.04, Pool +14.36% to $197.21 outperformed on beats and raises. Oversold hardware/materials TTM Technologies -28.26% to $73.89 despite record quarter and Carpenter -20.62% to $292.26 on revenue miss washed out with 4x average volume. For next session, continuation in quality earnings beats and mean-reversion bounce in beaten names should outperform SPY.
Why each pick
ROP
Thesis: Top S&P gainer Oct 22 +9.52% to $435.39 on substantive Q3 beat. Fact: EPS $5.89 vs $5.79 consensus on $2.17B revenue before open Oct 22, free cash flow $447M +11%, raised FY outlook $22.15-22.30. Sentiment: market rewarded defensive software mix. Path: gap up from $397.56 close Oct 21 to intraday high $439.72 low $406.46 close $436.23, close near high within range. Completed daily history: session_date 2026-10-22 open null high 439.72 low 406.46 close 436.23 volume 1189074; 2026-10-21 close 397.56; earlier days null. Return_5d_pct 16.62% from finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 405242 shares source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/ US Eastern regular session 9:30-16:00 ET. Intraday at answering: latest_price 436.23 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/ type prior close regular-session. Reference_price consistent. Pre-event price $397.56 Oct 21 close, observed event-to-quote +9.73% (38.67). Partial session Oct 22 verified high $439.72 low $406.46. Catalyst already reflected ~9.5% but guidance raise not fully priced given BofA style upgrades in peers. Supports continuation: close near high, volume 404,862 vs avg 1,189,074 -66% suggests not climax. Counter-evidence: Nasdaq -2.6% AI rout, high multiple 18x P/E near 52-week high $483. Invalidation: future close below $397.56 prior close or FY guidance cut.
Daily bars oldest to newest: 2026-10-16 null null null null null; 2026-10-19 null null null null null; 2026-10-20 null null null null null; 2026-10-21 null null null 397.56 null; 2026-10-22 null 439.72 406.46 436.23 1189074
ALLE
Thesis: #2 S&P gainer Oct 22 +9.46% to $174.04 closing $176.52 on substantive beat and raise. Fact: Q3 EPS $2.60 vs $2.50 est +4% surprise, revenue beat, lifted full-year profit outlook, gapped from $159.00 close Oct 21 to $170.00 open Oct 22 last $169.74 on 280k shares, plus BofA upgrade to Buy $200 target from $164. Sentiment: security products defensive. Path: gap up open $170 high null low null close $176.52 near high. Completed daily history: 2026-10-22 open 170.0 high null low null close 176.52 volume 2100000; 2026-10-21 close 159.0; earlier null. Return_5d_pct 16.09% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 1000000 shares source https://finnhub.io US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 177.04 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session, open 178.85 high 179.47 low 176.015 prev close 176.52. Reference_price 177.04 consistent. Pre-event $159.00, observed event-to-quote +11.33% to 177.04. Partial session Oct 23: open 178.85 high 179.47 low 176.015. Catalyst ~60% reflected but upgrade momentum supports continuation vs SPY. Counter-evidence: daily avg volume 332,315 vs 1M and 12-month +3.4% indicates longer downtrend. Invalidation: close below $159.00 gap base or outlook cut.
Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 null; 2026-10-21 null null null 159.0 null; 2026-10-22 170.0 null null 176.52 2100000
POOL
Thesis: +14.36% to $197.21 Oct 22 rising from $172.44, 7 of last 10 days up +24.71% over 2 weeks, top US gainers list. Fact: Q3 2026 4% net sales growth to $1.5B reported Oct 22, driven by international, guidance reaffirmed. Sentiment: market rewarded despite flat earnings due to premium P/E and distribution strength. Path: intraday range $175.30-$197.36 +12.58% close near high. Completed daily history: 2026-10-22 close 197.21; 2026-10-21 close 172.44; earlier null. Return_5d_pct 24.39% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 261815 shares per intelligentinvestor source https://intelligentinvestor.com.au US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 196.685 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session open 194.1 high 200.69 low 192.14 prev close 197.21. Reference_price 196.685 consistent. Pre-event $172.44, observed event-to-quote +14.06% to 196.685. Partial session Oct 23: open 194.1 high 200.69 low 192.14. Catalyst ~80% reflected but momentum and reaffirmed guidance support further vs SPY. Counter-evidence: YTD -14.02% 1-year -34.51% long downtrend, 52-week high $305.63. Invalidation: close below $172.44 pre-earnings close or guidance cut.
Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 null; 2026-10-21 null null null 172.44 null; 2026-10-22 null null null 197.21 null
TTMI
Thesis: Oversold reversal after -28.26% to $73.89 Oct 22 volume 17,480,745 vs avg 3.7M. Fact: Q3 record results before open Oct 22 beat every line but supply chain wait 24 weeks drove data center division 10% below internal targets. Sentiment: AI hardware rout Nasdaq -2.6% worst since June amplified drop, stock already -67% from $223.83 high June 22. Path: gap down open 83.75 high 84.09 low 71.71 close 73.89 closing off low with long lower wick supports reversal not continuation. Completed daily history verified via stockwatch: 2026-10-20 open 96.3 high 99.81 low 94.0 close 95.51 volume 4207001; 2026-10-21 open 99.76 high 102.53 low 96.6726 close 102.15 volume 4570799; 2026-10-22 open 83.75 high 84.09 low 71.71 close 73.89 volume 17480745; earlier null. Return_5d_pct -23.79% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 3749757 shares source https://stockwatch.com US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 78.73 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629 prev close 73.89. Reference_price 78.73 showing +6.55% bounce started. Pre-event close $102.15 Oct 21, observed event-to-quote -22.91% to 78.73. Partial session Oct 23: open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629. Catalyst overreaction: record beat vs temporary supply delay suggests bounce vs SPY. Counter-evidence: 1-month -37.43% beta 2.23, sector pressure SNDK -8.47% AMD -8.08% same day. Invalidation: future close below $71.71 Oct 22 low or new delay beyond 24 weeks.
Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 96.3 99.81 94.0 95.51 4207001; 2026-10-21 99.76 102.53 96.6726 102.15 4570799; 2026-10-22 83.75 84.09 71.71 73.89 17480745
CRS
Thesis: Washout reversal after -20.62% to $292.26 Oct 22 from $368.16 close Oct 21 gap open $330.00 volume 2.75M vs avg 694k. Fact: Q3 earnings Oct 22 revenue miss viewed as valuation concern given elevated P/E 34.65, though net margin 16.96% ROE 26.46% positive. Sentiment: elevated valuation $625.99 high July 6 now -53.31% below high indicates de-risking. Path: gap down close near low $292.26 low $284.56 high null open $330. Supports reversal attempt. Completed daily history: 2026-10-21 close 368.16; 2026-10-22 open 330.0 high null low 284.56 close 292.26 volume 2752129; earlier null. Return_5d_pct -24.6% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 694467 shares source https://finnhub.io US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 286.315 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165 prev close 292.26. Reference_price 286.315 consistent. Pre-event $368.16, observed event-to-quote -22.23% to 286.315. Partial session Oct 23: open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165. Catalyst overreaction vs fundamentals suggests bounce vs SPY. Counter-evidence: 5-day -24.6% 1-month -27.52% 50-day $428.25 above price shows downtrend. Invalidation: close below $262.25 52-week low or further guidance cut.
Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 null; 2026-10-21 null null null 368.16 null; 2026-10-22 330.0 null 284.56 292.26 2752129
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | MRNA, WDC, LRCX, SLB, ALLE | -2.21% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | GGG, ALLE, CRS, DECK, MRNA | -1.40% | 20% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | CCI, TSLA, TXN, IBM, T | +1.92% | 100% |
| Grok 4.7 | AXP, SLB, VZ, BAH, META | -3.19% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | DECK, CCI, AMT, SKYD, NCLH | -1.56% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-23.
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