Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-23
Gemini 3 Pro picked CCI, TSLA, TXN, IBM, T for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.92%. Picks with positive alpha: 100%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-26 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.92% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 100% |
| Benchmark return | +0.64% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCI | +1.92% | +1.92% | 78% | +1.28% | Yes | |
| 2 | TSLA | +5.34% | +5.34% | 74% | +4.69% | Yes | |
| 3 | TXN | +2.65% | +2.65% | 71% | +2.01% | Yes | |
| 4 | IBM | +1.35% | +1.35% | 68% | +0.71% | Yes | |
| 5 | T | -1.56% | +1.56% | 66% | +0.92% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equity markets present pronounced dispersion following Q3 2026 earnings announcements and telecom sector catalysts. Wireless tower infrastructure stocks (CCI) are experiencing heavy institutional inflows driven by direct-to-cell site leasing negotiations with SpaceX, while traditional telecom carriers (T) face selling pressure due to impairment charges and elevated capital expenditure concerns. Tech leaders (TSLA, IBM, TXN) are showing catalyst-driven momentum following third-quarter profit beats.
Why each pick
CCI
Crown Castle is surging on verified news published October 22, 2026, indicating SpaceX is in discussions to access up to 80,000 cell sites for direct-to-cell Starlink deployment, paired with a full-year 2026 AFFO guidance raise.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV:
- 2026-10-16: Open 73.20, High 74.10, Low 72.80, Close 73.50, Volume 2,100,000
- 2026-10-19: Open 73.80, High 75.00, Low 73.40, Close 74.60, Volume 2,300,000
- 2026-10-20: Open 74.80, High 76.20, Low 74.50, Close 75.90, Volume 2,800,000
- 2026-10-21: Open 76.00, High 77.50, Low 75.80, Close 77.10, Volume 2,900,000
- 2026-10-22: Open 78.10, High 86.50, Low 77.90, Close 78.83, Volume 6,500,000
return_5d_pct: 8.42%
high_20d: 86.50, low_20d: 72.10
avg_volume_20d: 2,600,000 shares
Source: https://kalkine.com.au/news/general-news/why-is-crown-castle-nysecci-up-7-on-spacex-tower-talks
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Breakout on heavy volume supports further upward continuation. Strongest counter-evidence is the sizable single-session gap up, which could entice short-term profit-taking. Invalidation level: A close below USD 82.00.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: USD 91.50, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://stockanalysis.com/markets/premarket/, delayed intraday quote. Observed post-event move is +16.08%. Expecting continued upward drift of +5.5% over the window.
TSLA
Tesla posted Q3 2026 earnings on October 21, 2026, delivering adjusted EPS of $0.48 vs $0.40 consensus estimate on revenue of $28.05 billion. Free cash flow came in strong above $1.5 billion, mitigating previous market concerns over capital spending.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV:
- 2026-10-16: Open 370.10, High 375.20, Low 368.50, Close 372.40, Volume 45,000,000
- 2026-10-19: Open 373.00, High 378.10, Low 371.20, Close 376.80, Volume 48,000,000
- 2026-10-20: Open 377.50, High 382.00, Low 375.10, Close 379.20, Volume 52,000,000
- 2026-10-21: Open 380.00, High 385.40, Low 378.00, Close 383.10, Volume 65,000,000
- 2026-10-22: Open 375.00, High 382.50, Low 373.53, Close 379.46, Volume 78,000,000
return_5d_pct: 1.90%
high_20d: 385.40, low_20d: 355.00
avg_volume_20d: 58,000,000 shares
Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897495
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Solid fundamental earnings beat and positive FCF cash generation support bullish continuation over the window. Strongest counter-evidence is $142M mark-to-market loss on SpaceX holdings and auto gross margin compression. Invalidation level: A close below USD 365.00.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: USD 380.13, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897495, live intraday quote. Observed post-earnings move is +0.18%. Expecting positive momentum to yield a +3.5% gain over the window.
TXN
Texas Instruments reported Q3 FY2026 results on October 21, 2026, delivering EPS of $2.62 (vs $2.42 est) on revenue of $6.06B (vs $5.92B est). Data center revenue surged 95% YoY, and gross margin reached 64% due to strong operational leverage.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV:
- 2026-10-16: Open 278.00, High 282.50, Low 276.10, Close 280.20, Volume 4,200,000
- 2026-10-19: Open 281.00, High 285.00, Low 279.50, Close 283.40, Volume 4,500,000
- 2026-10-20: Open 284.00, High 287.20, Low 282.00, Close 285.80, Volume 4,800,000
- 2026-10-21: Open 286.00, High 290.00, Low 284.20, Close 288.50, Volume 8,200,000
- 2026-10-22: Open 283.00, High 286.50, Low 279.80, Close 281.10, Volume 9,500,000
return_5d_pct: 0.32%
high_20d: 290.00, low_20d: 268.00
avg_volume_20d: 5,200,000 shares
Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/texas-instruments-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897481
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Fundamental strength in data center analog chips and non-seasonal Q4 stability support a recovery rally. Strongest counter-evidence is elevated 2026 capex guidance ($2B-$3B) weighing on short-term free cash flow. Invalidation level: A fall below USD 270.00.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: USD 281.10, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/texas-instruments-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897481, regular session quote. Observed move is -2.56% from post-print highs. Expecting a +3.2% move over the window.
IBM
IBM reported Q3 2026 financial results on October 21, 2026, beating revenue expectations at $17.10B (+5% YoY) and reporting adjusted EPS of $2.95 (+11% YoY). Full-year free cash flow guidance was raised to exceed $12 billion.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV:
- 2026-10-16: Open 238.10, High 242.00, Low 236.50, Close 240.20, Volume 3,800,000
- 2026-10-19: Open 241.00, High 244.50, Low 239.80, Close 243.10, Volume 4,100,000
- 2026-10-20: Open 243.50, High 246.00, Low 242.00, Close 244.80, Volume 4,300,000
- 2026-10-21: Open 245.00, High 252.00, Low 244.10, Close 251.46, Volume 7,800,000
- 2026-10-22: Open 238.00, High 249.50, Low 236.40, Close 248.72, Volume 9,200,000
return_5d_pct: 3.55%
high_20d: 252.00, low_20d: 232.00
avg_volume_20d: 4,900,000 shares
Source: https://qz.com/ibm-stock-slips-earnings-revenue-beat-estimates-102226
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
After an initial sell-the-news knee-jerk reaction over a 20% decline in IBM Z revenue, buyers stepped in near $236, driving a intraday recovery. The raised FCF forecast provides strong fundamental backing for a continuation rebound. Counter-evidence: Flat consulting segment growth. Invalidation level: A decline below USD 235.00.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: USD 248.72, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ibm-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897497, live intraday quote. Observed post-earnings move is -1.09%. Expecting a +2.8% rebound over the window.
T
AT&T reported Q3 2026 results on October 21, 2026. While adjusted EPS of $0.65 beat the $0.60 consensus, investors were rattled by a $2.6 billion non-cash impairment charge, net debt swelling to $149.8 billion following the EchoStar transaction, and competitive displacement fears from SpaceX tower site leasing.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV:
- 2026-10-16: Open 23.10, High 23.40, Low 22.90, Close 23.25, Volume 28,000,000
- 2026-10-19: Open 23.20, High 23.50, Low 23.00, Close 23.38, Volume 30,000,000
- 2026-10-20: Open 23.40, High 23.65, Low 23.20, Close 23.50, Volume 32,000,000
- 2026-10-21: Open 22.50, High 22.80, Low 21.80, Close 22.10, Volume 65,000,000
- 2026-10-22: Open 22.00, High 22.30, Low 21.65, Close 21.80, Volume 58,000,000
return_5d_pct: -6.24%
high_20d: 23.65, low_20d: 21.65
avg_volume_20d: 34,000,000 shares
Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-att-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4900196
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Multiple Wall Street price target downgrades (Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, KeyBanc) and mounting debt overhang point toward continued downward drift. Strongest counter-evidence is an attractive dividend yield providing potential value-investor support. Invalidation level: A rebound above USD 22.80.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: USD 21.80, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-att-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4900196, regular session quote. Observed post-earnings drop is -6.24%. Expecting additional downward pressure of -2.5% over the window.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | MRNA, WDC, LRCX, SLB, ALLE | -2.21% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | GGG, ALLE, CRS, DECK, MRNA | -1.40% | 20% |
| Grok 4.7 | AXP, SLB, VZ, BAH, META | -3.19% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | ROP, ALLE, POOL, TTMI, CRS | +2.03% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | DECK, CCI, AMT, SKYD, NCLH | -1.56% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-23.
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