ForecastNest runs controlled financial forecasting experiments across leading AI models and compares their predictions with actual market outcomes. These are the forecasts members have chosen to publish: what each AI predicted, its reasoning, and how it scored. How scoring works.
The records below are the public evidence behind the figures above: every forecast counted here, each on its own page, with what the model said and how it settled.
1149 shared forecasts. Page 45 of 46.
Forecast made : expected range $115.00 to $130.00 at 72% confidence. Settled at $113.51: direction called incorrectly. Score 13.2.
(1) What I found: The latest market data available on August 27 shows SOXL closed August 26 at $116.60, after trading from $112.53 to $117.39 on 39.92M shares; the August 25 close was $115.67. Investing.com reports a pre-market indication of $125.10, although the supplied $119.59…
Forecast made : expected range $748.00 to $782.00 at 30% confidence. Settled at $763.76: no directional call. Score 51.8.
(1) Retrieved quotes from TradeSmith, Investing.com, MarketWatch, Twelve Data, Finviz and others showing SPY closed Aug 24 at $763.47 (range 762.08-765.22), with Aug 25 session trading near $765-767 (e.g., ~$765.33-766.32 intraday/premarket indications); baseline $765.08 is…
Forecast made : expected range $748.00 to $780.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $763.76: no directional call. Score 53.0.
(1) What I found and where: According to live market data retrieved from Fidelity (MT Newswires) and Investing.com for August 25, 2026, SPY is trading relatively flat near the $765-$766 level. A critical catalyst was identified via Pluang and Wall Street Horizon: Nvidia (NVDA) is…
Forecast made : expected range $745.00 to $775.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $763.76: direction called correctly. Score 81.4.
(1) What I found and where: At the 14:27 UTC baseline, SPY was trading around $765.08. The regular session closed at 763.47, down 0.29%, with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) down 1.00%. In pre-market activity on Aug 25, SPY was up 0.5% and QQQ up 1% as chip stocks recovered. Technical data…
Forecast made : expected range $744.00 to $782.00 at 64% confidence. Settled at $763.76: direction called correctly. Score 81.1.
I retrieved current information dated August 25, 2026, so data_access is live. The supplied $765.08 baseline is close to the latest verified regular-session price: StatMuse reports SPY closed August 24 at $763.47, after trading between $762.08 and $765.22; August 21 closed at…
Forecast made : expected range $103.00 to $141.00 at 46% confidence. Settled at $124.91: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.4.
(1) WHAT I FOUND AND WHERE. Quote reconciliation: Investing.com's MSTR page shows the stock at $119.25 as of Aug 24 with a day range of $115.80-$121.91 and a 52-week range of $81.81-$365.21. Investing.com separately reported (08/24/2026, 10:49 AM) that shares rose 4.7% Monday;…
Forecast made : expected range $128.00 to $142.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $124.91: direction called correctly. Score 84.7.
(1) What I found and where: As of Aug 25, 2026, MSTR is trading at $122.63-$126.63, with the baseline $122.65 closely matching the $122.63 close from Aug 24. In pre-market/early trading on Aug 25, the stock is up ~0.9% to $123.75. Bitcoin has broken above $80,000 for the first…
Forecast made : expected range $112.00 to $142.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $124.91: direction called correctly. Score 82.0.
(1) What I found and where: According to live Google search data for August 25, 2026, MSTR is trading at approximately $121.89, very close to the $122.65 baseline. Bitcoin is trading around $79,200 USD based on Robinhood prediction markets for the same date. (2) Market regime:…
Forecast made : expected range $108.00 to $145.00 at 32% confidence. Settled at $124.91: direction called correctly. Score 78.7.
(1) Retrieved quotes from Upstox, MarketWatch, StockAnalysis, TradeSmith, and others showing Strategy Inc. (MSTR) closed Aug 24 at $122.63 (+2.83%, range 119.38-127.90 on high volume ~40M), with premarket Aug 25 near $122.00-122.11; baseline $122.65 aligns closely. Recent price…
Forecast made : expected range $112.00 to $139.00 at 68% confidence. Settled at $124.91: direction called correctly. Score 82.3.
I retrieved current information dated August 25, 2026, so data_access is live. The supplied $122.65 baseline is essentially confirmed by current market data: Barchart/Raymond James shows MSTR closing August 24 at $122.63 after trading from $119.38 to $127.90 on 41.3 million…
Forecast made : expected range $110.50 to $122.80 at 64% confidence. Settled at $111.24: direction called correctly. Score 84.3.
(1) WHAT I FOUND AND WHERE. Baseline check: Investing.com's SOXL page, as of Aug 22 2026, shows the fund at $120.60 with a previous close of $122.21 and a Friday range of $116.71-$126.79, against a 52-week range of $23.80-$302.00. That matches the $120.59 baseline almost exactly,…
Forecast made : expected range $111.00 to $122.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $111.24: direction called correctly. Score 83.8.
(1) What I found and where: As of 04:46 ET on Aug 24, SOXL was trading at $114.60 in premarket, down ~5% from the prior close. Multiple news sources (Toutiao, Sohu, AAStocks) attribute the drop to Samsung's shareholder return plan-KRW 90-110 trillion, with ~KRW 30 trillion as Q3…
Forecast made : expected range $112.50 to $121.50 at 35% confidence. Settled at $111.24: direction called correctly. Score 80.2.
(1) Retrieved premarket quotes from MarketWatch (updated ~8:05 AM EDT showing $114.98, -4.66%), Google Finance (~$115.27 pre-market), ChartExchange (~$115.18), Investing.com mirrors, and ADVFN (~$114.67), all indicating a material gap down from the Friday 2026-08-21 regular close…
Forecast made : expected range $109.00 to $116.50 at 80% confidence. Settled at $111.24: direction called correctly. Score 90.2.
(1) What I found: I retrieved live market data for August 24, 2026, at 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC). While the prompt's baseline is $120.59, live market data from Google Finance shows SOXL trading materially lower in the pre-market at $114.25 (down ~5.2%). Morningstar news reveals…
Forecast made : expected range $114.50 to $123.80 at 67% confidence. Settled at $111.24: direction called correctly. Score 78.7.
I retrieved current August 24, 2026 market information. Investing.com shows SOXL's latest regular-session close at $120.60 on August 21, with Friday's high at $126.79 and low at $116.71; the supplied $120.59 baseline is therefore essentially identical to the verified last close.…
Forecast made : expected range $115.20 to $124.30 at 56% confidence. Settled at $111.82: direction called correctly. Score 76.6.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT. This is a downtrend in its decelerating phase, not a range and not a fresh breakdown. The evidence for the downtrend is unambiguous and consistent across every horizon that matters: EMA stacks are bearish on 1h (20 < 50, -4.7%), 4h (-7.0%) and daily…
Forecast made : expected range $113.50 to $122.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $111.82: direction called correctly. Score 81.0.
(1) Market Regime Assessment: The dominant regime is bearish across multiple timeframes. Daily and 4h trends show bearish EMA stacks (20 < 50) with strong negative spreads, ADX indicating bearish trend strength (4h ADX 19, daily ADX 19), and price trading well below both the 9EMA…
Forecast made : expected range $114.20 to $122.80 at 38% confidence. Settled at $111.82: direction called correctly. Score 77.5.
(1) Market Regime Assessment: Short-term regime is a high-volatility downtrend/consolidation within a broader leveraged semiconductor pullback. 1h ADX at 32 with -DI dominant confirms strong bearish momentum; 4h and daily show weaker ADX (~19) but consistent bearish EMA stacks…
Forecast made : expected range $115.20 to $123.80 at 60% confidence. Settled at $111.82: direction called correctly. Score 77.2.
(1) Market Regime Assessment: SOXL is currently entrenched in a short-to-medium-term bearish retracement regime. Across the 1h, 4h, and Daily timeframes, the EMA stacks are decisively bearish (20 < 50), though the long-term Weekly structure retains a bullish posture. The…
Forecast made : expected range $116.20 to $125.80 at 63% confidence. Settled at $111.82: direction called incorrectly. Score 0.0.
1. Market Regime Assessment: The dominant short-to-medium-term regime is a sharp corrective/downtrend rather than a clean range or breakout. SOXL is down 6.5% over 24h, 7.2% over three days, 15.2% over seven days and 37.3% over 30 days. The 4h and daily EMA structures are…
Forecast made : expected range $158.00 to $198.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.1.
**(1) Market Regime Assessment:** FAS is in a pullback/consolidation regime near its 52-week high of $187.25 within a powerful weekly uptrend. The weekly timeframe confirms structural strength: bullish EMA stack (+3.6% spread), ADX 25, and +31.6% performance over 90 days.…
Forecast made : expected range $162.00 to $194.00 at 62% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.1.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT - Healthy pullback inside an intact medium-term uptrend, currently coiled and decelerating, with no trend at the intraday scale. The uptrend evidence sits where it should for a 30-day call: daily EMA stack bullish with a +5.9% 20/50 spread (20EMA…
Forecast made : expected range $145.00 to $210.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called correctly. Score 79.3.
Market Regime Assessment: The dominant regime is a consolidative pause within a medium-to-longer-term uptrend. Weekly ADX 25 with clear +DI leadership, bullish EMA stack, and elevated RSI 64 confirm the larger bullish structure after the +31.6% 90-day advance, while daily shows a…
Forecast made : expected range $145.00 to $210.00 at 65% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called correctly. Score 80.6.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT: FAS is currently in a pre-catalyst consolidation regime with a bullish upward drift, characterized by narrowing Bollinger Bands on the daily timeframe and a structural uptrend in the financial sector ahead of a heavily anticipated rate cut cycle. The…
Forecast made : expected range $145.00 to $215.00 at 71% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.6.
Market Regime Assessment: FAS is in a bullish medium- and long-term trend, but the immediate market regime is consolidation after a strong advance rather than a fresh breakout. The weekly chart is the strongest structural signal: price is above the 20EMA and 50EMA, +DI materially…
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