ForecastNest runs controlled financial forecasting experiments across leading AI models and compares their predictions with actual market outcomes. These are the forecasts members have chosen to publish: what each AI predicted, its reasoning, and how it scored. How scoring works.
The records below are the public evidence behind the figures above: every forecast counted here, each on its own page, with what the model said and how it settled.
1149 shared forecasts. Page 46 of 46.
Forecast made : expected range $155.00 to $210.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 31.6.
(1) Market Regime Assessment: The dominant regime is a consolidating uptrend. Weekly (7d) and daily (1d) EMAs are bullish (20>50), with weekly RSI at 64 (strong) and ADX 25 indicating a moderate trend. However, short-term (1h, 4h) momentum is weak: 4h RSI is 48, ADX 17 with -DI…
Forecast made : expected range $152.00 to $205.00 at 48% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.3.
**(1) What I found and where:** FAS closed at $175.79 on August 21, 2026, with a daily range of $174.65-$179.36 and below-average volume (Robinhood, August 21). MarketWatch shows an August 21 NAV of $177.62, placing the $177.77 baseline essentially at fair value with minor…
Forecast made : expected range $162.00 to $194.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.1.
(1) WHAT I FOUND AND WHERE - Fund data from stockanalysis.com/etf/fas: Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X, 3x DAILY exposure to the S&P Financial Select Sector index, AUM $2.36B, expense ratio 0.88%, listed beta 2.58, 52-week range $106.91-$187.25, +16.79% total return over the…
Forecast made : expected range $140.00 to $220.00 at 53% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.5.
Live data from US News, Investing.com, StockInvest.us, Morningstar, Yahoo Finance, and Direxion sources show FAS closed at $177.52 on 2026-08-21 (+2.68% from $172.89), with day range $175.53-$179.36 and after-hours near $177.60; the $177.77 baseline aligns closely. 52-week range…
Forecast made : expected range $155.00 to $210.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 31.6.
I retrieved current pricing, technical, and news data from multiple financial sources with timestamps at or after the 2026-08-23 02:49 UTC baseline. Sources include Investing.com, Intellectia.ai, OKX, Fidelity, CNBC, MarketWatch, and various news aggregators covering August 2026.…
Forecast made : expected range $145.00 to $215.00 at 65% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.6.
(1) WHAT I FOUND & WHERE: Through live market data search, I confirmed that FAS closed near $177.52 on Friday, August 21, 2026 (Robinhood/Investing.com). The underlying index ETF, XLF, has been showing strength as markets anticipate lower interest rates. (2) MARKET REGIME: The…
Forecast made : expected range $145.00 to $215.00 at 66% confidence. Settled at $163.62: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.6.
What I found and where: the closest verified FAS market data is the August 21, 2026 session, when FAS closed around $177.5 and rose about 2.7% after falling 2.9% on August 20 and 1.75% on August 19; the recent 30-day trading record shows a high near $187.25 and a low near…
Forecast made : expected range $2,335.00 to $2,515.00 at 65% confidence. Settled at $2,443.40: no directional call. Score 52.7.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT: Ethereum is currently in a powerful breakout and upward-trending regime on the macro scale, driven by strong institutional tailwinds and a broader crypto market rally. However, on the immediate intraday horizon, the asset is entering a phase of…
Forecast made : expected range $2,360.00 to $2,515.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $2,443.40: direction called correctly. Score 81.0.
**(1) Market Regime Assessment:** ETH is in a powerful short-term momentum breakout regime, up +28.9% over 7 days and +29.2% over 30 days, driven by a daily ADX of 30 with extreme directional separation (+DI 49 vs -DI 6). However, this rally is occurring within a longer-term…
Forecast made : expected range $2,320.00 to $2,520.00 at 57% confidence. Settled at $2,443.40: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.5.
Market Regime Assessment: The dominant regime is a strong medium-term uptrend that has entered a short-term overbought consolidation phase. Daily ADX at 30 with a large +DI lead, rising MACD histogram, and price significantly above the bullish EMA stack confirm powerful upside…
Forecast made : expected range $2,300.00 to $2,550.00 at 76% confidence. Settled at $2,443.40: no directional call. Score 52.8.
Market Regime Assessment: ETH is in a strong short-to-medium-term bullish breakout/acceleration regime, but it is approaching a near-term exhaustion zone. The 4h ADX is exceptionally strong at 64 with +DI far above -DI, the daily ADX is 30 with an even larger directional…
Forecast made : expected range $2,360.00 to $2,540.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $2,443.40: direction called correctly. Score 81.9.
Market Regime Assessment: The dominant regime is a mature bull trend across 4h and daily (ADX 64/30, EMA stacks bullish, price above 9EMA), but overbought conditions (4h RSI 73, daily RSI 78, daily %B 1.04) and immediate resistance at $2,548 create a high-probability range-bound…
Forecast made : expected range $2,368.00 to $2,505.00 at 63% confidence. Settled at $2,443.40: direction called correctly. Score 81.5.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT - This is an impulsive breakout regime at the swing scale that has decayed into a tight consolidation coil at the intraday scale. The breakout evidence is unusually strong and internally consistent: daily +28.9% over 7 days and +29.2% over 30 days,…
Forecast made : expected range $209.80 to $218.90 at 61% confidence. Settled at $210.27: direction called correctly. Score 80.8.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT - This is not a trending regime; it is a corrective pullback inside an intact higher-timeframe uptrend, now compressing into a pre-event coil. The evidence for 'corrective, not reversal': daily ADX is 17 with +DI and -DI both at 21 (gap of 0 - the…
Forecast made : expected range $266.50 to $279.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $272.75: no directional call. Score 52.9.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT: Constellation Energy (CEG) is operating in a tight, choppy mean-reverting regime following a localized pullback from recent local highs near the $282-$287 zone. Across multiple timeframes, volatility is visibly contracting (ATR falling on 1h, 4h,…
Forecast made : expected range $267.40 to $278.60 at 54% confidence. Settled at $272.75: no directional call. Score 53.0.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT: CEG is in a tight, low-volatility consolidation sitting at the balance point of a medium-term uptrend and a longer-term downtrend. The dominant regime is ranging/mean-reverting, and the evidence is unusually consistent. ADX is 16 on the 1h, 18 on the…
Forecast made : expected range $266.50 to $279.50 at 66% confidence. Settled at $272.75: no directional call. Score 53.3.
Market Regime Assessment: CEG is currently in a low-volatility consolidation/mean-reversion regime rather than a clean directional trend. The 1h chart has weak ADX at 16 and nearly identical +DI/-DI, while Bollinger bandwidth and ATR are contracting. The 4h chart has stronger…
Forecast made : expected range $267.00 to $280.00 at 56% confidence. Settled at $272.75: direction called incorrectly. Score 47.0.
(1) Market Regime Assessment: The dominant regime is mean-reverting consolidation within a narrowing volatility band. 1h and 4h ATR are falling, Bollinger bandwidths are narrowing across all timeframes, and volume is exceptionally low, indicating a lack of directional conviction.…
Forecast made : expected range $269.00 to $278.00 at 54% confidence. Settled at $272.75: direction called incorrectly. Score 47.1.
**(1) Market Regime Assessment:** CEG is in a volatility-compression consolidation regime following a strong +8.9% monthly advance and a subsequent -1.9% weekly pullback. All timeframes exhibit narrowing Bollinger Bands, and volume is anomalously low across the board (-89% to…
Forecast made : expected range $39.50 to $43.50 at 55% confidence. Settled at $44.85: no directional call. Score 48.2.
**(1) Market Regime Assessment:** IONQ is operating in a pullback regime within a longer-term bullish structural framework. The weekly timeframe retains a bullish EMA stack (20 > 50) and rising MACD histogram, confirming the multi-month uptrend is technically intact. However, the…
Forecast made : expected range $39.00 to $43.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $44.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 11.1.
Market Regime Assessment: The overall regime is short-term bearish but transitioning toward mean-reverting consolidation. 1h ADX 44 and 4h ADX 30 confirm strong downside momentum, yet RSI is rising from oversold/neutral levels, 1h MACD histogram is turning upward, and 4h…
Forecast made : expected range $39.00 to $43.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $44.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 11.1.
Market Regime Assessment: The overall regime is short-term bearish but transitioning toward mean-reverting consolidation. 1h ADX 44 and 4h ADX 30 confirm strong downside momentum, yet RSI is rising from oversold/neutral levels, 1h MACD histogram is turning upward, and 4h…
Forecast made : expected range $39.70 to $44.80 at 69% confidence. Settled at $44.85: direction called correctly. Score 82.8.
Market Regime Assessment: IONQ is in a short-term downward/corrective regime, but not yet in a confirmed longer-term structural breakdown. The dominant regime for the next 1 day is bearish-to-mean-reverting: the 1h and 4h charts show strong directional selling pressure after a…
Forecast made : expected range $38.75 to $44.20 at 63% confidence. Settled at $44.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 10.2.
(1) MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT: IONQ is in a post-shock stabilization phase inside a broader multi-month unwind. The organizing fact is the -10.9% (1h series) / -11.4% (4h series) 24-hour drawdown, which is an impulsive repricing event rather than trend drift. Layered against that,…
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