SPY 7-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 7-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-08-25: expected range $748.00 to $782.00 at 30% confidence. Settled at $763.76: no directional call, score 51.8.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 7-day (Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $764.70 |
| Expected range | $748.00 to $782.00 |
| Confidence | 30% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $763.76 |
| Traded range in the window | $761.17 to $775.30 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 51.8 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Retrieved quotes from TradeSmith, Investing.com, MarketWatch, Twelve Data, Finviz and others showing SPY closed Aug 24 at $763.47 (range 762.08-765.22), with Aug 25 session trading near $765-767 (e.g., ~$765.33-766.32 intraday/premarket indications); baseline $765.08 is consistent. Recent action: mild consolidation after peaking near $779 on Aug 13, with 30-day gain ~3%. News/catalysts from Reuters, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, ThriveInMarkets, Morningstar/Dow Jones, Scotiabank calendar: US futures higher Tuesday on tech rebound (S&P futures +0.3-0.5%); key events this week include Consumer Confidence/New Home Sales (Tue), Core PCE/GDP/Durable Goods + Nvidia earnings (Wed), Jackson Hole Symposium with Fed Chair Warsh speech (Fri). ATR ~$6.4-6.7 (Finviz/WallStreetNumbers), 30-day historical vol ~13%.
(2) Current regime is range-bound consolidation near recent highs with mild upward bias from positive futures and residual AI/earnings momentum, but elevated event risk from inflation data and Fed commentary keeps conviction limited.
(3) Range measured from the $765.08 baseline and kept relatively balanced-to-slightly-upside to reflect typical weekly SPY moves (ATR-based ~1% daily swings compound to several points over 7 days) plus room for post-event volatility; lower bound near recent support zones and a 2% drawdown, upper near the prior high and modest extension.
(4) Inside the 7-day window the dominant catalysts are Wednesday’s PCE print and Nvidia results plus Friday’s Jackson Hole speech; these can drive 1-2% swings either way depending on outcomes versus expectations (core PCE seen ~0.2% MoM/3.3% YoY).
(5) Strongest counter-argument is a hotter-than-expected PCE or hawkish Warsh tone that pressures multiples and tech, potentially testing the lower bound; invalidation of neutral/mild bias would be a decisive break below ~$750 on volume or a clean reclaim/hold above $780.
(6) Confidence is low at 30% because the 7-day path is event-driven with two-sided risk, recent price action is choppy rather than trending strongly, and data is partial (solid recent closes and calendars, current session quotes available but not exhaustive live tape).
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $744.00 to $782.00 | 64% | Direction called correctly | 81.1 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $745.00 to $775.00 | 52% | Direction called correctly | 81.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $748.00 to $780.00 | 55% | No directional call | 53.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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