ForecastNest runs controlled financial forecasting experiments across leading AI models and compares their predictions with actual market outcomes. These are the forecasts members have chosen to publish: what each AI predicted, its reasoning, and how it scored. How scoring works.
The records below are the public evidence behind the figures above: every forecast counted here, each on its own page, with what the model said and how it settled.
1149 shared forecasts. Page 5 of 46.
Forecast made : expected range $518.00 to $538.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $533.58: direction called correctly. Score 81.6.
(1) Intraday evidence at answering time: As of 2026-10-16T13:20:00-04:00 (17:20 UTC), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is trading at $525.53, down 2.58% intraday from the previous session close of $539.44 (source: NASDAQ market data via Google Finance). Quote status is live…
Forecast made : expected range $335.00 to $355.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $340.17: direction called incorrectly. Score 48.4.
(1) Daily OHLCV (last five completed sessions, oldest to newest, split‑adjusted, USD, NASDAQ): 2026-10-09: open 348.00, high 351.06, low 346.88, close 347.86, volume 11,142,900 2026-10-12: open 348.34, high 352.66, low 347.16, close 348.97, volume 11,854,200 2026-10-13: open…
Forecast made : expected range $329.00 to $344.00 at 54% confidence. Settled at $340.17: direction called incorrectly. Score 31.3.
(1) Price discovery and data access: Alphabet Class C (NASDAQ: GOOG) was quoted at $337.52 at 2026-10-16T13:09:00-04:00, according to Stock Analysis (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/goog/history/). The provider labels its quotation real-time, regular-session, USD. This…
Forecast made : expected range $334.00 to $346.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $340.17: direction called correctly. Score 78.8.
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes and historical OHLCV retrieved from MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/goog/download-data), Investing.com, FinanceCharts, TradeSmith and Yahoo Finance mirrors as of 2026-10-16. Previous close 2026-10-15 was $344.91.…
Forecast made : expected range $333.00 to $348.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $340.17: no directional call. Score 52.8.
(1) What you found, and where: Live quote for GOOG on Oct 16 2026 retrieved via finnhub.io current price $337.55 with open $344.30 high $346.60 low $337.30 previous close $344.91 , midforex.com snapshot Oct 16 10:00 AM ET trading at $340.75 , public.com after-hours note regular…
Forecast made : expected range $325.00 to $348.00 at 45% confidence. Settled at $340.17: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.9.
(1) Price and intraday evidence: GOOG was quoted at $337.56, down 7.35 (-2.13%), as of 1:11 PM EDT on Nasdaq, immediately before the 1:16 PM EDT window start (source: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/GOOG/news/). Yahoo Finance showed $338.88, down 1.75%, at 12:41 PM EDT…
Forecast made : expected range $333.50 to $343.50 at 58% confidence. Settled at $340.17: direction called correctly. Score 81.4.
(1) Market regime: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is trading in a consolidated range between $332.00 and $355.00 over the last 20 trading sessions, sitting near the lower end of its monthly bracket following intraday softness across mega-cap technology equities. (2) Technical synthesis:…
Forecast made : expected range $210.00 to $222.00 at 35% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 32.1.
(1) Price path and market regime: NVDA closed at $217.23 on October 15, 2026, down 1.84% on the session, extending a pullback from its 52-week high of $243.37 set on October 6, 2026 (Yahoo Finance daily history, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/). The stock has…
Forecast made : expected range $212.50 to $220.00 at 68% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called correctly. Score 81.9.
(1) Intraday Evidence & Market Regime: At Window Starts (2026-10-16T17:10:32Z / 1:10 PM EDT), NVDA was trading at $215.70 (USD, NASDAQ real-time finance feed via Google/NASDAQ snapshot), down -0.71% from the previous session close of $217.23 on 2026-10-15. PARTIAL SESSION…
Forecast made : expected range $208.50 to $220.50 at 55% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 31.9.
(1) Market evidence and baseline: NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) traded at $215.79 at 2026-10-16T13:09:16-04:00, equivalent to 17:09:16 UTC, according to ChartExchange: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-nvda/historical/. This regular-session quote precedes the authoritative forecast…
Forecast made : expected range $212.50 to $221.50 at 42% confidence. Settled at $217.85: no directional call. Score 52.4.
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA) and CNBC show NVDA trading near $217.11 as of ~12:01 PM EDT on 2026-10-16 (regular session open). Prior close 2026-10-15 was $217.23. Recent news from NVIDIA Newsroom…
Forecast made : expected range $208.00 to $223.00 at 45% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.8.
(1) Current quote and intraday path: NVDA was $216.14 at 12:56 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, down 0.50% on the day, per CNBC’s real-time NASDAQ quote (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NVDA). This is a live regular-session quote shortly before the 17:10 UTC window start. The stock opened…
Forecast made : expected range $212.00 to $220.50 at 52% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.9.
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub snapshot shows NVDA Current Price 215.7597, Open 216.56 High 218.676 Low 215.07 Previous Close 217.23 on XNAS as of Oct 16 2026 [260922878264503341†L17-L23]. StatMuse timestamped intraday quote at 2026-10-16 13:30 shows $216.56 open $216.77…
Forecast made : expected range $79,800.00 to $84,200.00 at 55% confidence. Settled at $81,097.78: direction called incorrectly. Score 46.9.
(1) Price discovery and intraday evidence: BTC was quoted at $82,644.65 at 7:45 a.m. ET on Oct. 16, 2026, per Fortune (https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-10-16-2026/), a live regular-session quote. The same source reports yesterday's price at $80,915.17, implying a…
Forecast made : expected range $78,700.00 to $83,900.00 at 53% confidence. Settled at $81,097.78: direction called correctly. Score 79.9.
(1) Market observations and price verification: The latest verified pre-cutoff Binance BTC/USDT quote was 81,508.29 USDT at 2026-10-16T16:41:49Z, approximately 22 minutes before the authoritative window start at 2026-10-16T17:04:04.779Z. Source:…
Forecast made : expected range $79,800.00 to $83,200.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $81,097.78: no directional call. Score 52.4.
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from MarketWatch CoinDesk XBX (last updated ~07:53 EDT / ~11:53 UTC Oct 16 showing ~$82,563 earlier, later readings near $81,500), Yahoo Finance BTC-USD (~$81,285-$81,500 range mid-session), CoinLore, Twelve Data Bitfinex and OKX place…
Forecast made : expected range $79,800.00 to $84,600.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $81,097.78: direction called incorrectly. Score 56.7.
(1) Data and daily OHLCV: The latest verifiable quote was $82,359.26 at 2026-10-16T14:23:33Z from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD, an aggregated USD market quote; it predates the 17:04 UTC window start, so the live baseline cannot be confirmed exactly at the window open. The last five…
Forecast made : expected range $79,800.00 to $82,800.00 at 68% confidence. Settled at $81,097.78: no directional call. Score 53.8.
(1) Market regime: Bitcoin is currently in a short-term corrective phase following broader macroeconomic inflation headlines in the US (notably stronger-than-expected PPI and CPI releases on Oct 14-15). While the medium-to-long-term trend remains structurally bullish (up ~8% over…
Forecast made : expected range $79,800.00 to $83,200.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $81,097.78: direction called incorrectly. Score 30.7.
(1) What you found, and where: Current intraday quote retrieved from Finnhub via search result [4498525856951722047] showing Current Price 81379.75, Open 82122.01, High 82940.81, Low 81242.55 on Binance BTC/USD. Cross-checked with Alpaca 5-min bar data reported at $82,186 on…
Forecast made : expected range $532.00 to $548.00 at 72% confidence. Settled at $527.48: no directional call. Score 51.2.
(1) What you found, and where: As of October 15, 2026, at 17:39 UTC (13:39 EDT), live market data from Nasdaq and Google Finance shows Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trading at $539.76. The stock is up +$6.07 (+1.14%) from yesterday's close of $533.69, supported by analyst…
Forecast made : expected range $530.00 to $550.00 at 65% confidence. Settled at $527.48: direction called incorrectly. Score 10.7.
(1) Market regime: The AI trade is under broad pressure, with the Nasdaq hitting a near one-month low as rising rates and inflation concerns weigh on technology shares. The VIX rose to a two-week high of 17.56 intraday, per Reuters. MSFT is showing relative strength, trading up…
Forecast made : expected range $529.00 to $550.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $527.48: no directional call. Score 51.6.
(1) Market data and intraday evidence: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was quoted at $539.59 at 2026-10-15T13:36-04:00 (17:36 UTC), approximately three and a half minutes before the authoritative window start of 2026-10-15T17:39:30.319Z. The source labels its quote real-time,…
Forecast made : expected range $529.00 to $548.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $527.48: direction called correctly. Score 77.6.
(1) Daily OHLCV: The last five completed Nasdaq sessions, oldest to newest, were 2026-10-08 (open $529.81, high $533.51, low $518.79, close $522.61, volume 19,575,828); 2026-10-09 (open $528.24, high $537.22, low $526.24, close $535.07, volume 17,812,412); 2026-10-12 (open…
Forecast made : expected range $532.00 to $545.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $527.48: direction called correctly. Score 75.5.
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT) at approximately 1:39 PM EDT on 2026-10-15 show MSFT at 539.78 (+6.09, +1.14%) with day's range 531.22-540.48, open 533.66, volume ~11.9M (partial). Prior close 533.69. Historical OHLCV…
Forecast made : expected range $531.00 to $548.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $527.48: no directional call. Score 51.2.
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live intraday quote for MSFT from finnhub.io showing Current Price 539.41, Open 533.315, High 540.48, Low 531.22, Previous Close 533.69 as of Oct 15, 2026. Daily history from stocknear.com/history for MSFT confirms last completed close Oct…
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