NVDA 1-day forecast by DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-16: expected range $210.00 to $222.00 at 35% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called incorrectly, score 32.1.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek V3 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $215.71 |
| Price the model reported | $217.43 |
| Expected range | $210.00 to $222.00 |
| Confidence | 35% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $217.85 |
| Traded range in the window | $213.32 to $219.62 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 32.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Price path and market regime: NVDA closed at $217.23 on October 15, 2026, down 1.84% on the session, extending a pullback from its 52-week high of $243.37 set on October 6, 2026 (Yahoo Finance daily history, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/). The stock has declined 10.74% over 10 sessions, driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields, sector rotation out of semiconductors, and escalating concerns about AI-related debt after CoreWeave's credit default swap costs spiked to record levels (Barrons, https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-coreweave-jensen-huang-stock). The regime is risk-off for high-beta AI infrastructure names, though NVDA has shown relative resilience versus peers like AMD and Intel on October 16.
(2) Daily OHLCV (last five completed sessions, oldest to newest, split-adjusted, volume in shares, NasdaqGS, USD, regular session 9:30-16:00 ET):
Oct 9, 2026: open 233.84, high 233.92, low 229.11, close 229.28, volume 84,645,600.
Oct 12, 2026: open 228.73, high 228.86, low 224.90, close 226.32, volume 70,690,300.
Oct 13, 2026: open 224.34, high 228.64, low 223.06, close 228.52, volume 84,036,900.
Oct 14, 2026: open 225.53, high 226.00, low 219.64, close 221.30, volume 118,730,100.
Oct 15, 2026: open 215.30, high 218.47, low 212.85, close 217.23, volume 126,789,100. Source: Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/.
(3) Context metrics: return_5d_pct = -5.75% (217.23 / 230.48 - 1, using Oct 8 close of 230.48 from Yahoo Finance). high_20d = 243.37 (Oct 6). low_20d = 212.85 (Oct 15). avg_volume_20d = 108,318,545 shares (arithmetic mean of 20 sessions from Sep 18 to Oct 15; Sep 18 volume 190,287,400 per Yahoo Finance). Recent volumes on Oct 14 and Oct 15 (118.7M, 126.8M) are above the 20-day average, consistent with elevated selling pressure. The Oct 15 session printed a long lower wick (low 212.85, close 217.23), showing buyers stepped in near $213.
(4) Intraday evidence at answering time: latest_price $217.43, quote_time 2026-10-16T12:22:00-04:00 (12:22 PM ET), source https://www.moomooapp.com/stock/NVDA-US, quote is regular-session and delayed. The window starts at 13:10 ET; the closest verified quote is from 12:22 ET. A PARTIAL SESSION quote from finance.baidu.com at 10:18 ET showed $216.63. After-hours and overnight quotes around $217.1-$217.4 (10jqka, https://stockpage.10jqka.com.cn) are broadly consistent. The observed move from the Oct 15 close of $217.23 to the current quote is approximately flat (+0.1%), indicating the market has not yet priced a decisive directional break on October 16. Relative intraday volume cannot be established from available data.
(5) Catalysts: Verified recent news includes Jensen Huang's October 15 comments that Nvidia does not need to backstop CoreWeave, which briefly stabilized sentiment (Barron's, https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-coreweave-jensen-huang-stock; Reuters/Investing.com, https://www.investing.com). Taiwan announced plans for $4 billion in Texas industrial parks for Nvidia suppliers (Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/taiwan-planning-4-billion-industrial-110001272.html). Mercedes-Benz and Nvidia expanded their autonomous driving partnership on October 16 (InvestorsHub/ADVFN). Nvidia's GTC Berlin conference is scheduled for October 20-22, with Jensen Huang's keynote on October 21 (Nvidia, https://www.nvidia.com/gtc). This falls after the forecast window ends and is a forward catalyst, not an in-window event. No earnings release is scheduled within the window; Q3 earnings are expected November 17-25 (EarningsWhispers, https://beta.earningswhispers.com). The CoreWeave debt situation is an ongoing sentiment driver rather than a new fundamental change to Nvidia's business.
(6) Counter-evidence: The strongest evidence against a bearish call is Nvidia's relative resilience on October 16 - the stock rose 0.27% in premarket while AMD, Broadcom, and Intel fell (TipRanks, https://www.tipranks.com). Analyst consensus remains Strong Buy with an average projected level of $328.72 (62 analysts, S&P Global via stockanalysis.com, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/forecast/). Dan Ives reiterated a Buy rating and $300 target on October 16, calling the dip a buying opportunity (TipRanks). A 35% upside to consensus fair value suggests the selloff may be sentiment-driven rather than fundamentally justified. Volume on October 15 was elevated but the close well above the low indicates absorption, which is evidence for stabilization rather than continuation.
(7) Invalidation: A daily close below $212.85 (the October 15 low) would signal that the recent support level has failed and would undermine the mild bearish thesis by confirming a breakdown rather than a consolidation. Conversely, a daily close above $221.30 (the October 14 close) would indicate that buyers have regained control and would invalidate the bearish lean.
(8) Confidence rationale: Confidence is 35% because the evidence is genuinely mixed. The 10-day decline is substantial but NVDA is showing relative strength versus peers, analyst consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, and the intraday action on October 16 is essentially flat. A single-day forecast over a weekend gap (Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon) introduces gap risk that cannot be modelled from available data. The absence of a verified live quote at the exact window start (1:10 PM ET) and the inability to verify relative intraday volume further reduce conviction. The data_access is partial: current pricing and news are available, but the quote is from 12:22 ET rather than the window start, and some OHLCV figures rely on secondary aggregators.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $212.00 to $220.50 | 52% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
| Perplexity | $208.00 to $223.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
| Grok 4.5 | $212.50 to $221.50 | 42% | No directional call | 52.4 |
| GPT-6 | $208.50 to $220.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.9 |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $212.50 to $220.00 | 68% | Direction called correctly | 81.9 |
How this forecast is measured
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