NVDA 1-day forecast by Gemini 3 Pro
Gemini 3 Pro's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-10-16: expected range $212.50 to $220.00 at 68% confidence. Settled at $217.85: direction called correctly, score 81.9.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $215.71 |
| Price the model reported | $215.70 |
| Expected range | $212.50 to $220.00 |
| Confidence | 68% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $217.85 |
| Traded range in the window | $213.32 to $219.62 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 81.9 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Intraday Evidence & Market Regime: At Window Starts (2026-10-16T17:10:32Z / 1:10 PM EDT), NVDA was trading at $215.70 (USD, NASDAQ real-time finance feed via Google/NASDAQ snapshot), down -0.71% from the previous session close of $217.23 on 2026-10-15. PARTIAL SESSION statistics as of 13:15 EDT show an open of $216.56, high_so_far of $218.68, low_so_far of $215.07, and cumulative intraday volume of 54.53 million shares. The market regime reflects a short-term pullback and consolidation following a multi-week retreat from its recent high of $243.37 set on 2026-10-06.
(2) Daily OHLCV & 20-Session Technicals: The last five completed daily sessions (NASDAQ split-adjusted, regular trading hours) are: 2026-10-09: open $233.84, high $233.92, low $229.11, close $229.28, volume 84,650,000; 2026-10-12: open $228.73, high $228.86, low $224.90, close $226.32, volume 70,690,000; 2026-10-13: open $224.34, high $228.64, low $223.06, close $228.52, volume 84,040,000; 2026-10-14: open $225.53, high $226.00, low $219.64, close $221.30, volume 118,730,000; 2026-10-15: open $215.30, high $218.47, low $212.85, close $217.23, volume 127,090,000. Context stats: return_5d_pct = -5.73% (measured against 2026-10-08 close of $230.48); high_20d = $243.37 (2026-10-06); low_20d = $212.85 (2026-10-15); avg_volume_20d = 105,825,000 shares. Source: NASDAQ / Investing.com / StockAnalysis historical data.
(3) Forecast Horizon & Catalyst Assessment: Dan Ives of Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating on 2026-10-16 morning, viewing the minor dip as a buying opportunity based on enterprise AI infrastructure demand (GuruFocus News). Over the 1-day forecast horizon (ending 2026-10-19T17:10:32Z, spanning the weekend to Monday's mid-session), momentum is mildly negative due to persistent sector rotation in semiconductor equities, though fundamental valuation at ~27.3x P/E offers support against deep downside.
(4) Counter-Evidence: The primary counter-evidence against a quick recovery is the elevated selling volume over the past two sessions (118.7M and 127.1M shares vs 105.8M 20-day average), indicating institutional distribution pressure ahead of macro tech earnings season.
(5) Invalidation Level: A sustained breakdown below the recent low_20d level of $212.85 during regular trading hours would invalidate the neutral-to-support thesis and open lower support targets toward $205.00.
(6) Confidence Rationale: Confidence is set at 68% due to high short-term noise around option expiry and weekend holding risk over the 1-day window.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $212.00 to $220.50 | 52% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.9 |
| Perplexity | $208.00 to $223.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
| Grok 4.5 | $212.50 to $221.50 | 42% | No directional call | 52.4 |
| GPT-6 | $208.50 to $220.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.9 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $210.00 to $222.00 | 35% | Direction called incorrectly | 32.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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