Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-10-30
Grok 4.7 picked REGN, INTC, AMZN, XOM, LLY for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.61%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.7 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.61% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.59% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | REGN | +5.28% | +5.28% | 68% | +4.68% | Yes | |
| 2 | INTC | -3.18% | +3.18% | 72% | +2.59% | Yes | |
| 3 | AMZN | +5.86% | -5.86% | 62% | -6.45% | No | |
| 4 | XOM | -1.42% | -1.42% | 66% | -2.01% | No | |
| 5 | LLY | -1.26% | -1.26% | 60% | -1.85% | No |
The model's market view
Energy and select biotech names are reacting positively to strong Q3 beats and raised outlooks driven by refining margins and immunology growth, while large-cap tech faces continued pressure from AI capital expenditure concerns and weak guidance after recent misses. Anticipation of further digestion of yesterday's and today's results is expected to drive directional moves into Monday's session.
Why each pick
REGN
Regeneron reported a decisive Q3 beat on Oct 30 before the open: adjusted EPS $20.07 vs ~$16.1-16.5 consensus and revenue $5.12B vs ~$4.54-4.63B, driven by 68% growth in Sanofi collaboration profit from Dupixent (global sales +35% to $6.54B). Facts: strong Dupixent contribution, raised gross-margin guidance to 86%, and expanded Sanofi alliance. Inference: positive fundamental revision on immunology franchise. Stock was ~$819 prior close; has already reacted ~+12% to ~$920 by mid-session (partial session open ~$869, high ~$935, low ~$839). Price/volume shows continuation on elevated volume vs 20d average ~0.7M shares. Counter-evidence: Eylea sales still declining (-41% US); stock extended above prior 52w high. Invalidation if it closes back below $850 or management commentary on call weakens. Completed 5d bars (US Eastern regular sessions through Oct 29): 10/23 O805.02 H819.09 L801.22 C805.02 V527k; 10/26 O812.31 H817.17 L796.61 C807.67 V424k; 10/27 O807.67 H816.14 L804.05 C816.10 V726k; 10/28 O807.06 H821.16 L802.20 C813.27 V536k; 10/29 O826.14 H828.19 L811.63 C818.77 V789k. return_5d_pct ~1.7% (from ~10/22 close). high_20d ~828, low_20d ~722. avg_volume_20d ~570k. Source for history: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/regn/download-data. Latest quote ~$920 live regular session as of ~10:30 EDT 2026-10-30 (https://investor.regeneron.com/stock-information/). Pre-event close $818.77; observed reaction already ~+12%. Expect further modest upside from here into Monday on momentum and guidance support.
INTC
Intel reported Q3 after close Oct 29: adjusted EPS $0.52 beat ~$0.40-0.41, revenue ~$16.51B roughly in line, but Q4 guidance revenue $15.0-16.0B and non-GAAP EPS $0.25 well below consensus (~$0.43-0.44 and ~$17B). Facts: PC market slowdown expected to persist into 1H 2027; data-center strength offset by client weakness. Inference: near-term fundamental pressure and supply constraints. Stock closed ~$92.07 on Oct 29 and has fallen ~28-29% to ~$66 today (partial session open ~$68, low ~$64). Volume elevated. Counter-evidence: long-term AI/server demand narrative and prior multi-year gains. Invalidation if it reclaims $75 on volume or guidance revised higher. Completed 5d through Oct 29: 10/23 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V72M; 10/26 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V99M; 10/27 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V91M; 10/28 O95.09 H95.68 L93.00 C95.53 V83M; 10/29 O92.97 H93.50 L90.84 C92.07 V134M. return_5d_pct ~5.9%. high_20d ~142, low_20d ~33. avg_volume_20d ~100M+. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/intc/download-data. Latest ~$66 live regular session (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/). Pre-event close ~$92; observed reaction ~-28%. Expect further downside from current levels on continued guidance digestion.
AMZN
Amazon reported Q3 after close Oct 29: EPS $1.89 missed ~$1.97, revenue $201.9B slightly missed, with heavy AI capex and negative free cash flow noted. Facts: AWS growth strong (+39%) but overall miss and ongoing spend concerns. Inference: sentiment pressure on AI investment returns. Closed ~$243.79 on Oct 29; currently ~$238 (partial session open ~$233, range ~$229-240). Volume elevated. Counter-evidence: AWS acceleration and long-term retail/cloud position. Invalidation if it reclaims $250. Completed 5d: 10/23 O248.85 H250.01 L246.45 C248.00 V26M; 10/26 O249.47 H250.79 L247.23 C249.09 V33M; 10/27 O250.43 H254.68 L248.71 C253.10 V34M; 10/28 O253.00 H255.36 L251.98 C254.60 V35M; 10/29 O246.95 H249.14 L241.24 C243.79 V85M. return_5d_pct ~-1.7%. high_20d ~265, low_20d ~241. avg_volume_20d ~35M+. Source: https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/price. Latest ~$238 live (https://app.stocks.news/stock-detail/NASDAQ/AMZN/chart). Pre-event ~$254; observed reaction ~-4% then further. Expect modest additional downside from here.
XOM
ExxonMobil reported Q3 today BMO: adjusted EPS $4.23 beat estimates (~$4.1-4.2), GAAP $3.72, strong refining margins from Middle East/Ukraine disruptions, record operational performance, $15.4B GAAP earnings, $25.7B operating cash flow. Facts: refining strength and production milestones. Inference: positive near-term fundamentals and cash returns. Prior close $183.29; currently ~$188 (ATH territory, partial session open ~$186). Volume normal. Counter-evidence: upstream sequential softness and valuation at highs. Invalidation if it fails to hold $185. Completed 5d: 10/23 O179.37 H183.75 L179.00 C183.21 V11.5M; 10/26 O181.86 H184.59 L181.52 C184.54 V10.9M; 10/27 O183.63 H184.88 L179.77 C179.91 V14.2M; 10/28 O180.59 H183.65 L180.00 C182.02 V12.7M; 10/29 O183.77 H184.39 L180.94 C183.29 V11.0M. return_5d_pct ~0%. high_20d ~185, low_20d ~171. avg_volume_20d ~11M. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/xom/download-data. Latest ~$188 live (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/xom/statistics/). Pre-event $183.29; observed ~+2.5%. Expect modest further upside on energy strength.
LLY
Eli Lilly reported strong Q3 on Oct 29: large EPS beat ($7.48 vs ~$5.7), revenue upside, raised 2026 revenue guidance to ~$91.5B midpoint, driven by weight-loss/diabetes franchise. Facts: robust growth and guidance raise. Inference: continued fundamental momentum. Prior close $1,373.70; currently ~$1,430 (partial session open ~$1,429, high ~$1,450). Volume elevated vs average. Counter-evidence: high valuation and potential competition. Invalidation if it closes below $1,380. Completed 5d: 10/23 O1304.15 H1307.92 L1257.62 C1273.46 V2.3M; 10/26 O1286.39 H1296.90 L1273.73 C1279.14 V2.1M; 10/27 O1273.50 H1297.92 L1272.07 C1281.91 V1.9M; 10/28 O1268.55 H1299.43 L1260.34 C1288.30 V2.1M; 10/29 O1332.73 H1408.38 L1330.00 C1373.70 V4.4M. return_5d_pct ~+7.9%. high_20d ~1408, low_20d ~1131. avg_volume_20d ~2.5M. Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lly/download-data. Latest ~$1,430 live (https://index.businessinsurance.com/observerreporter/quote/ny:lly). Pre-event ~$1,288; observed ~+6.6% then more. Expect further modest upside from current levels.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | INTC, AMZN, PLTR, AAPL, LLY | -1.02% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | INTC, AMZN, REGN, RIVN, GOOGL | +1.72% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | RDDT, INTC, MDLZ, RIVN, TWLO | +3.66% | 100% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | AAPL, AMZN, INTC, MSFT, GOOGL | -0.16% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | INTC, COIN, REGN, AMZN, AN | -0.82% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | ALNY, NOW, GKOS, CROX, FTNT | +1.96% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-10-30.
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