Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-30
Muse Spark 1.1 picked INTC, AMZN, REGN, RIVN, GOOGL for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.72%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.72% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.59% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC | -3.18% | +3.18% | 78% | +2.59% | Yes | |
| 2 | AMZN | +5.86% | -5.86% | 70% | -6.45% | No | |
| 3 | REGN | +5.28% | +5.28% | 72% | +4.68% | Yes | |
| 4 | RIVN | +10.98% | +10.98% | 65% | +10.39% | Yes | |
| 5 | GOOGL | +2.02% | -2.02% | 60% | -2.62% | No |
The model's market view
Oct 30 2026 is peak Q3 earnings Friday with heavy tech repricing. Alphabet fell 12.64% Oct 29 on EPS miss and $195-205B capex guide, Amazon missed EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 and revenue $201.9B vs $202.31B despite 39% AWS growth, Intel plunged on weak Q4 guide, Rivian and Regeneron beat. Fed held rates, AI capex cash burn is driving sentiment. Window Fri afternoon to Mon close captures continuation of earnings gaps into Monday.
Why each pick
INTC
Thesis: Intel Q3 2026 occurred Oct 29 after close. Reported fact: revenue $16.51B up 21% YoY vs $16.48B est beat, non-GAAP EPS $0.52 vs $0.40 beat. Forward guidance is the catalyst: Q4 revenue $15-16B vs $17.07B LSEG expected miss, adj EPS $0.25 vs $0.43 expected, adj gross margin guided 38% down from 44.1% Q3, PC chip revenue guided down mid-20% in Q4, plus $300M Israel shutdown hit. Fundamental deterioration, not just sentiment.
Price action check: Completed daily bars exclude Oct 30. Path shows rally into earnings then gap down. Oct 29 close 92.07 within day range 90.84-93.50, small lower wick, closed near low. Oct 28 closed near high 95.53. Volume Oct 29 134.1M vs 20d avg 98.3M = elevated distribution. 20d range high 126.00 (Oct 2) low 84.65 (Oct 22), current breakdown below 20d low area. Return 5d +7.69% before event was pre-earnings bounce, now reversed. Counter-evidence: Q3 beat and 126% YoY EPS growth. Volume support for continuation, not exhaustion, due to guidance magnitude.
Intraday evidence at answering time: latest_price 66.68 USD, quote_time 2026-10-30T10:36:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/ , type delayed regular-session intraday. reference_price 66.68 consistent. data_date 2026-10-30 price_source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/. Pre-event price 92.07 close Oct 29 16:00 EDT. Observed event-to-quote move = (66.68/92.07-1)*100 = -27.58% already realized in premarket 69.09 and open 68.36. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30 as of 10:36 EDT: open 68.36 high_so_far 68.77 low_so_far 64.11 cumulative_volume 166919595 source same page. Much of catalyst reflected, but guidance cut to $15B implies further downside risk into Mon as analysts cut targets; Jefferies-style downgrades expected. Invalidation: reclaim of 75.00 intraday on volume or upside revision to Q4 guide / PC demand stabilization announcement.
Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/intc/history/ US Eastern):
2026-10-23 O:85.92 H:87.87 L:84.74 C:86.96 V:72093680
2026-10-26 O:87.94 H:92.09 L:86.46 C:90.47 V:98744158
2026-10-27 O:92.47 H:94.98 L:91.86 C:93.74 V:90523294
2026-10-28 O:95.09 H:95.68 L:93.00 C:95.53 V:82592443
2026-10-29 O:92.97 H:93.50 L:90.84 C:92.07 V:134168717
return_5d_pct = 7.696 (using close 92.07 vs close 5 sessions earlier 85.49 on 2026-10-22)
high_20d = 126.00 low_20d = 84.65 avg_volume_20d = 98370529 (20 sessions ending 2026-10-29) split-adjusted, not dividend-adjusted.
AMZN
Thesis: Amazon Q3 2026 occurred Oct 29 after close. Reported fact: net sales $201.944B up 12% vs $202.31B est slight miss, EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 miss, net income $20.7B down 2.4% YoY due to prior year $9.5B Anthropic gain. AWS sales $45.984B up 39.3% YoY vs $45.61B est beat, fastest in 5 years, operating margin 38.7% ($17.77B income), operating income total $28.076B vs $22.5-26.5B guide beat, record 13.9% margin. Negative: free cash flow -$42.4B TTM outflow due to $94.8B YoY increase in property/equipment for AI, 2026 capex guide $220B maintained. Market focused on cash burn, similar to Alphabet reaction.
Price action: Oct 29 close 243.79 open 246.95 high 249.14 low 241.24, closed near low with upper wick, volume 85.2M vs 20d avg 38.1M = 2.2x distribution. Prior 4 days were tight consolidation near 250-254. Gap down from Oct 28 close 254.60 to Oct 29 open 246.95. Return 5d -2.63% before event, showing early weakness. 20d high 265.34 low 241.24, breakdown toward low. Counter-evidence: operating leverage and AWS acceleration to 40%+ guided 2027-2028 could limit downside.
Intraday: latest_price 238.59 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:36:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event close 243.79 Oct 29. Observed move to current -2.13%, premarket low 227.50 (-6.7%) showing initial gap filled partially. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 232.54 high_so_far 240.21 low_so_far 229.36 cumulative_volume 38267909. Anticipation of further multiple compression on capex could drive additional down into Mon close despite AWS strength. Invalidation: price reclaim of 250.00 or reduction in 2026 capex guide / positive AWS margin expansion commentary.
Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/history/ Eastern):
2026-10-23 O:248.85 H:250.01 L:246.45 C:248.00 V:25569043
2026-10-26 O:249.47 H:250.79 L:247.23 C:249.09 V:32696380
2026-10-27 O:250.43 H:254.68 L:248.71 C:253.10 V:34477821
2026-10-28 O:253.00 H:255.36 L:251.98 C:254.60 V:34915856
2026-10-29 O:246.95 H:249.14 L:241.24 C:243.79 V:85234439
return_5d_pct = -2.632 (243.79 vs 250.38 on 2026-10-22)
high_20d = 265.34 low_20d = 241.24 avg_volume_20d = 38110105
REGN
Thesis: Regeneron Q3 2026 earnings beat occurred Oct 30 before open. Reported fact: revenue $5.116B up 36% YoY vs $4.56B est beat +12.43%, non-GAAP EPS $20.07 vs $16.08 est beat +24.8% (vs $11.83 YoY +70%), GAAP EPS $18.45 up 35%, GAAP net income $1.949B up 33%. Sanofi collaboration revenue $2.724B up 68% from $1.617B, development balance fully repaid end Q2 no longer reducing revenue, share of antibody profits $2.575B. Dupixent global net sales $6.5-6.541B up 35%. EYLEA HD US sales $699M vs $431M. Company expanded Sanofi deal Oct with $1B upfront to be recognized Q4, up to $7B milestones, raised 2026 R&D to $6.6-6.735B and gross margin to ~80%.
Price action: Completed history before event shows sideways consolidation. Oct 29 close 818.77 open 826.14 high 828.19 low 811.63 closed near low with volume 789k vs avg 632k slight elevated. Prior closes 813.27, 816.10. Return 5d -0.04% flat. 20d high 828.19 low 722.02, breakout above prior high. Counter-evidence: legacy EYLEA sales down $400M vs $681M, valuation high P/E 19.36.
Intraday: latest_price 910.89 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:35:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/regn/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event price 818.77 close Oct 29. Observed event-to-quote move = +11.25% (910.89/818.77-1). Premarket 875.64-880 at 7:30-7:53 EDT. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 869.43 high_so_far 935.35 low_so_far 839.08 cumulative_volume 1052162. Momentum likely to continue into Mon on guidance raise and Sanofi upfront recognition. Invalidation: break back below 850 or failure to hold above 880 support, or negative FDA decision on cemdisiran next month.
Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/regn/history/ Eastern):
2026-10-23 O:819.09 H:819.09 L:801.22 C:805.02 V:527739
2026-10-26 O:812.31 H:817.17 L:796.61 C:807.67 V:423958
2026-10-27 O:807.67 H:816.14 L:804.05 C:816.10 V:726151
2026-10-28 O:807.06 H:821.16 L:802.20 C:813.27 V:536498
2026-10-29 O:826.14 H:828.19 L:811.63 C:818.77 V:789303
return_5d_pct = -0.039 (818.77 vs 819.09 on 2026-10-22)
high_20d = 828.19 low_20d = 722.02 avg_volume_20d = 632332
RIVN
Thesis: Rivian Q3 2026 earnings beat occurred Oct 29 after close. Reported fact: revenue $2.155-2.16B up 38.3% YoY vs $2.00-2.023B est beat +6.6%, GAAP loss -$0.63 vs -$0.72 est beat, non-GAAP loss -$0.48 vs -$0.64 beat +26.15% surprise, gross profit $176M 8% margin, deliveries 19,248 up 46%, production 19,751, software/services revenue $605M 42% gross margin, cash $5.5B Sep 30. Raised 2026 delivery guidance to 67k-70k from 65k-70k, R2 best-seller first full quarter, VW JV and Amazon van orders support.
Price action: Completed bars show downtrend before event. Oct 29 close 11.45 low of range 11.38-11.87, closed near low, volume 43.2M vs avg 26.4M elevated. Oct 28 close 11.67, Oct 27 11.82. Return 5d -5.06% pre-event weakness. 20d high 15.36 low 11.38, near 52-week low 11.42. Counter-evidence: still unprofitable, -38% YTD, high cash burn.
Intraday: latest_price 12.03 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:36:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rivn/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event close 11.45. Observed event-to-quote +5.07%. Premarket $12.38 high, Jefferies upgraded to Buy $17 target. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 12.10 high_so_far 12.27 low_so_far 11.60 cumulative_volume 17292885. Beat plus guidance raise could extend into Mon, especially on short covering. Invalidation: break below 11.38 20d low or delivery cut.
Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rivn/history/ Eastern):
2026-10-23 O:11.93 H:12.02 L:11.60 C:11.83 V:23554380
2026-10-26 O:11.80 H:11.81 L:11.42 C:11.43 V:25075326
2026-10-27 O:11.52 H:12.09 L:11.50 C:11.82 V:35110865
2026-10-28 O:11.74 H:11.78 L:11.44 C:11.67 V:27664085
2026-10-29 O:11.67 H:11.87 L:11.38 C:11.45 V:43236244
return_5d_pct = -5.06 (11.45 vs 12.06 on 2026-10-22)
high_20d = 15.36 low_20d = 11.38 avg_volume_20d = 26398843
GOOGL
Thesis: Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings miss occurred Oct 28 after close. Reported fact: revenue $127.58B up 24.65-25% YoY vs $127.96B est miss, EPS $2.12 vs $3.02 est miss -27.89% (-29.5% GAAP). Miss driven by $8.66B net loss on equity securities (unrealized SpaceX) vs $10.73B gain prior year, not core operations. Core Search & Other $63.4B vs $64.9B consensus miss, YouTube Ads $11.2B below. Operating income $40.58B, capex $51.36B, free cash flow -$9.07B second consecutive negative quarter, 2026 capex guidance maintained $195-205B. AI spend concern triggered 12.64% drop Oct 29.
Price action: Oct 29 close 283.82 open 286.88 high 288.33 low 280.36 closed near low with long lower wick, volume 139.7M vs avg 30.9M = 4.5x exhaustion volume. Oct 28 close 324.89. Return 5d -12.46% before window, already heavily down. 20d high 359.40 low 280.36, breakdown below prior 52-week low area. Counter-evidence: revenue still up 25% 13th consecutive double-digit growth, loss non-operational, could mean bounce. But volume spike suggests capitulation may need more time.
Intraday: latest_price 280.04 USD quote_time 2026-10-30T10:35:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/ delayed regular-session. Pre-event close Oct 28 324.89, observed event-to-close Oct 29 -12.64%, additional -1.33% intraday Oct 30 to 280.04. PARTIAL SESSION Oct 30: open 281.12 high_so_far 281.99 low_so_far 279.00 cumulative_volume 19245011. Expect further modest down into Mon close as AI capex narrative lingers despite core growth. Invalidation: close above 290 or upward revision to capex efficiency / search recovery commentary.
Daily history (source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/googl/history/ Eastern):
2026-10-23 O:321.15 H:324.53 L:320.18 C:320.21 V:17569640
2026-10-26 O:320.89 H:321.48 L:316.60 C:316.80 V:23991837
2026-10-27 O:317.00 H:323.88 L:316.86 C:320.58 V:28633058
2026-10-28 O:323.77 H:326.41 L:322.66 C:324.89 V:63109029
2026-10-29 O:286.88 H:288.33 L:280.36 C:283.82 V:139738347
return_5d_pct = -12.462 (283.82 vs 324.22 on 2026-10-22)
high_20d = 359.40 low_20d = 280.36 avg_volume_20d = 30908800
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | INTC, AMZN, PLTR, AAPL, LLY | -1.02% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, INTC, AMZN, XOM, LLY | -0.61% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | RDDT, INTC, MDLZ, RIVN, TWLO | +3.66% | 100% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | AAPL, AMZN, INTC, MSFT, GOOGL | -0.16% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | INTC, COIN, REGN, AMZN, AN | -0.82% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | ALNY, NOW, GKOS, CROX, FTNT | +1.96% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-30.
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