Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-30
Perplexity picked INTC, AMZN, PLTR, AAPL, LLY for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.02%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.02% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.59% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC | -3.18% | +3.18% | 78% | +2.59% | Yes | |
| 2 | AMZN | +5.86% | -5.86% | 70% | -6.45% | No | |
| 3 | PLTR | -0.01% | +0.01% | 65% | -0.58% | No | |
| 4 | AAPL | -1.77% | +1.77% | 58% | +1.18% | Yes | |
| 5 | LLY | -1.26% | -1.26% | 62% | -1.85% | No |
The model's market view
The market is in a high-volatility de-risking phase after disappointing AI-hyperscaler and semiconductor results raised concerns about capital spending, cash burn, and PC demand. Energy and select healthcare earnings are providing relative strength, while technology faces continued downside risk into next week's Apple, Palantir, and AMD reports. I favor continuation shorts in names with fresh negative catalysts or demanding pre-earnings positioning, plus one long in a healthcare name with a verified earnings beat and strong price reaction.
Why each pick
INTC
Intel reported Q3 results and issued weak Q4 guidance citing PC weakness and manufacturing/capacity constraints; the stock fell roughly 23-29% after hours and in premarket trading. This is an observed, reported catalyst, not an anticipation trade. The latest verifiable quote is $65.74 at 2026-10-30T14:09:00Z, down about 28.5% from the prior close of $91.98; the session range was $64.11-$68.67 and reported turnover was about $4.19B, so liquidity comfortably exceeds the $20M floor. The completed daily history available for verification is limited: 2026-10-27 open 92.465, high 94.98, low 91.86, close 93.74, volume 90,520,000; 2026-10-28 close 93.74; earlier five-session and 20-session OHLC/volume aggregates could not be fully verified, so return_5d_pct, high_20d, low_20d, and avg_volume_20d are reported as null rather than estimated. The price is breaking far below its recent range on exceptional volume, which supports continuation rather than an immediate reversal; however, the strongest counter-evidence is that a 28% one-day decline can produce a technical bounce, and the move is already very extended. A reclaim of roughly $70, the upper part of Friday's observed range, would invalidate the downside-continuation thesis. I expect further decline into the close and the next session as index flows, forced de-risking, and revised estimates catch up.
AMZN
Amazon reported Q3 revenue and EPS below consensus, disclosed negative trailing-12-month free cash flow of $42.4B, and maintained a $220B 2026 capital-expenditure forecast; shares fell about 7% in extended trading and premarket. This is an observed earnings catalyst. The latest verifiable intraday quote found is $236.65, described as a live market-open quote, with a day range of $229.58-$240.17 and market cap about $2.63T; average volume is about 39.33M shares, implying roughly $9.4B of 20-day average dollar turnover at recent prices. Verified completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 246.95, high 249.14, low 241.24, close 243.79, volume 83,559,600, and 2026-10-28 open 253.00, high 255.36, low 251.98, close 254.60, volume 34,915,900; the remaining history needed for exact five-session and 20-session statistics was not verifiable from the available sources, so those aggregates are null. The stock closed near the low of Thursday's expanded range on roughly 2-3x normal volume, supporting continued distribution, while the main counter-evidence is that much of the earnings disappointment is already reflected in the roughly 6-7% premarket decline and a further leg lower requires broader AI-capex sentiment to remain weak. A sustained move back above $243.79, Thursday's close, would weaken the bearish continuation case. I expect residual selling and continued multiple compression into the next session.
PLTR
Palantir is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026, with its webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET; this is a scheduled event, not yet an observed result. The latest verifiable quote is $194.10 in premarket trading at 2026-10-30T08:40:00Z, after a $196.42 regular-session close on October 29; market cap is about $472.01B and recent volume is around 20M shares, implying roughly $3.9B of daily dollar turnover. Available completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 198.37, high 198.51, low 190.36, close 193.40, volume 13,338,795; 2026-10-28 open 197.01, high 198.74, low 193.13, close 196.81, volume 20,744,600; and 2026-10-27 open 198.12, high 201.83, low 196.79, close 198.73, volume 19,907,300. Exact five-session and 20-session high/low/volume aggregates were not fully verifiable, so those fields are null. The thesis is anticipation-driven: Palantir carries an exceptionally high valuation, and the current AI-spending/cash-burn scare makes a high multiple vulnerable if growth, government demand, or guidance disappoints. The stock has already drifted lower from the $200+ area, with a lower close and a close near the lower half of Thursday's range, which is consistent with pre-event de-risking rather than confirmed post-earnings weakness. The strongest counter-evidence is that strong demand commentary could trigger a sharp rally, and the event occurs after the forecast window's Monday session; therefore the position is primarily a valuation/positioning short into the report, not a bet on known results. A move back above $200 would invalidate the pre-earnings weakness thesis.
AAPL
Apple is officially scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET; this is a scheduled catalyst, not a reported outcome. The latest verifiable intraday quote is $344.99 at 2026-10-30T13:47:00Z, down 1.12% on the session, with market cap about $5.09T and three-month average volume about 43.56M shares, implying roughly $15.2B of average dollar turnover. Verified completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 348.00, high 351.43, low 347.30, close 348.91, volume 40,889,228; 2026-10-28 open 346.92, high 347.18, low 343.52, close 343.83, volume 35,714,300; and 2026-10-27 open 343.17, high 347.78, low 342.39, close 347.10, volume 39,984,400. Full five-session and 20-session aggregates were not verifiable from the available sources and are therefore null. The thesis is pre-earnings de-risking: Apple enters the print near its 52-week-high area after a strong run, while the broader AI-hardware and consumer-device demand narrative has deteriorated following Intel's PC weakness and Big Tech capex concerns. Friday's modest fade from $348.91 toward $345 suggests some profit-taking, but it is not yet a decisive breakdown; the main counter-evidence is Apple's relative resilience and the possibility that investors rotate into a less AI-capex-intensive mega-cap before the print. A close back above $351.43, the October 29 high, would invalidate the pullback thesis. I expect a modest decline into the earnings deadline as investors reduce event risk.
LLY
Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.48, well above the $5.38 consensus, and the stock rose 6.63% to $1,373.70 on October 29 on 4,355,666 shares, roughly 1.7x its 2.52M average volume. This is an observed earnings catalyst. The latest verifiable quote is $1,383.76, last updated 2026-10-30T08:02:00Z in premarket trading; market cap is about $1.23T, and average dollar turnover is roughly $3.45B based on 2.52M shares at recent prices. Verified completed bars include 2026-10-29 open 1,332.73, high 1,408.38, low 1,330.00, close 1,373.70, volume 4,355,666; 2026-10-28 open 1,268.55, high 1,299.43, low 1,260.34, close 1,288.30, volume 2,052,000; and 2026-10-27 open 1,273.50, high 1,297.92, low 1,272.07, close 1,281.91, volume 1,848,700. Exact five-session and 20-session aggregates were not fully verifiable and are null. The earnings surprise is a fundamental improvement in reported results, and the strong close plus premarket follow-through supports some continuation; however, the stock already captured a 6.6% move and touched $1,408.38 before closing below that high, leaving room for profit-taking. The strongest counter-evidence is therefore post-earnings mean reversion, especially in a risk-off technology-led tape. A fall back below $1,330, Thursday's opening/low area, would invalidate the continuation thesis. I expect a smaller further gain than the initial reaction as momentum and healthcare rotation persist.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | INTC, AMZN, REGN, RIVN, GOOGL | +1.72% | 60% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, INTC, AMZN, XOM, LLY | -0.61% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | RDDT, INTC, MDLZ, RIVN, TWLO | +3.66% | 100% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | AAPL, AMZN, INTC, MSFT, GOOGL | -0.16% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | INTC, COIN, REGN, AMZN, AN | -0.82% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | ALNY, NOW, GKOS, CROX, FTNT | +1.96% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-30.
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