Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-30
DeepSeek picked INTC, COIN, REGN, AMZN, AN for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.82%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.82% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.59% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC | -3.18% | +3.18% | 70% | +2.59% | Yes | |
| 2 | COIN | +2.20% | -2.20% | 65% | -2.79% | No | |
| 3 | REGN | +5.28% | +5.28% | 65% | +4.68% | Yes | |
| 4 | AMZN | +5.86% | -5.86% | 55% | -6.45% | No | |
| 5 | AN | -1.54% | -1.54% | 55% | -2.13% | No |
The model's market view
US equities enter the final session of October with a sharp AI-capex de-rating in megacap technology and crypto-linked names, while healthcare and selected consumer/auto retailers with positive earnings surprises attract fresh money. The equal-weight book is net short three post-earnings losers (INTC, COIN, AMZN) and long two post-earnings winners (REGN, AN), exploiting same-day post-earnings drift into Monday's open. The main risk is a violent short-covering rebound in the most oversold names, especially INTC and COIN, and the possibility that Friday's intraday reversals in AMZN and AN extend into the weekend.
Why each pick
INTC
Latest quote: $66.81 at 2026-10-30T14:37:34Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $92.07. Event observed: Q3 results released 2026-10-29 after the close; weak Q4 guidance triggered multiple analyst downgrades and price-target cuts, and the stock gapped from $92.07 to a $68.35 open, traded as low as $64.12 and is now $66.81, near the session low. The already realised reaction is about -27.4%; I expect a further 6% decline over the remaining window because post-earnings drift and analyst estimate cuts are still being absorbed, and the close near the low confirms sellers remain in control. Strongest counter-evidence: the stock is extremely oversold on a one-day basis and could see a sharp dead-cat bounce or short-covering rally; a close above $75 would invalidate the downside thesis. Completed daily bars (Yahoo Finance chart API, US Eastern): 2026-10-23 O87.92 H89.19 L84.65 C85.49 V134,128,100; 2026-10-26 O85.92 H87.87 L84.74 C86.96 V72,093,700; 2026-10-27 O87.94 H92.09 L86.46 C90.47 V98,744,200; 2026-10-28 O92.47 H94.98 L91.86 C93.74 V90,523,300; 2026-10-29 O95.09 H95.68 L90.84 C92.07 V82,592,400. return_5d_pct=7.70%; high_20d=126.00; low_20d=84.65; avg_volume_20d=97,935,460. PARTIAL SESSION: day high $68.77, low $64.12, cumulative volume 170,349,539 at 14:37Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline.
COIN
Latest quote: $137.075 at 2026-10-30T14:37:34Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $160.59. Event observed: Q3 revenue of about $1.216B missed consensus and management disclosed insider share-sale plans; the stock gapped from $160.59 to a $148.23 open, traded as low as $136.90 and is now $137.08, essentially at the session low. The already realised reaction is about -14.6%; I expect a further 5% decline over the window because the revenue miss and governance overhang are being digested, and the close near the low leaves little evidence of dip-buying. Strongest counter-evidence: COIN is a high-beta crypto proxy and can reverse violently on a Bitcoin bounce or short-covering; reclaiming the $148.50 session high would invalidate the short. Five completed daily bars and 20-session statistics: null (could not fully verify before submission; no estimate substituted). PARTIAL SESSION: day high $148.50, low $136.90, cumulative volume 6,819,236 at 14:37Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume are approximate from latest price and typical share turnover; both comfortably clear the floors.
REGN
Latest quote: $908.505 at 2026-10-30T14:37:33Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $818.77. Event observed: Q3 adjusted EPS of $20.07 beat the $16.24 consensus and revenue also topped estimates; the stock gapped from $818.77 to a $839.08 open, traded as high as $935.35 and is now $908.51. The already realised reaction is about +11.0%; I expect a further 3% advance over the remaining window as post-earnings drift attracts healthcare flows, but the fade from the $935 high is the strongest counter-evidence and suggests some profit-taking. Invalidation: a close below $880 would break the gap support and negate the long. Five completed daily bars and 20-session statistics: null (could not fully verify before submission; no estimate substituted). PARTIAL SESSION: day high $935.35, low $839.08, cumulative volume 1,061,834 at 14:37Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume are approximate from latest price and typical share turnover; both clear the floors.
AMZN
Latest quote: $238.915 at 2026-10-30T14:36:34Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $243.79. Event observed: Q3 revenue of $201.94B and EPS of $1.89 both missed consensus; after-hours trading initially fell 7.3%, but the regular session opened $232.53, traded as low as $229.36 and has recovered to $238.92, leaving only about half the initial gap. The already realised reaction is about -2.0%; I expect a further 2% decline over the window as AI-capex concerns and post-earnings drift persist, but the intraday reversal is the strongest counter-evidence and the short is lower-confidence. Invalidation: a close above the $243.79 prior close would fully repair the gap and negate the downside thesis. Completed daily bars (Yahoo Finance chart API, US Eastern): 2026-10-23 O248.85 H250.01 L246.45 C248.00 V25,569,000; 2026-10-26 O249.47 H250.79 L247.23 C249.09 V32,696,400; 2026-10-27 O250.43 H254.68 L248.71 C253.10 V34,477,800; 2026-10-28 O253.00 H255.36 L251.98 C254.60 V34,915,900; 2026-10-29 O246.95 H249.14 L241.24 C243.79 V83,559,600. return_5d_pct=-2.63%; high_20d=265.34; low_20d=241.24; avg_volume_20d=38,026,855. PARTIAL SESSION: day high $240.21, low $229.36, cumulative volume 38,777,679 at 14:36Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline.
AN
Latest quote: $181.496 at 2026-10-30T14:36:18Z, regular-session Yahoo Finance chart API. Prior close $169.34. Event observed: Q3 EPS of $5.11 beat the $5.08 consensus and revenue of $7.010B beat the $6.967B consensus; the stock gapped from $169.34 to a $177.74 open, traded as high as $192.99 and is now $181.50. The already realised reaction is about +7.2%; I expect a modest further 2% advance over the window as the beat supports post-earnings drift, but the heavy fade from the $192.99 high is the strongest counter-evidence and suggests profit-taking. Invalidation: a close below the $177.74 gap open would negate the long. Five completed daily bars and 20-session statistics: null (could not fully verify before submission; no estimate substituted). PARTIAL SESSION: day high $192.99, low $177.74, cumulative volume 348,578 at 14:36Z; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume are approximate from latest price and typical share turnover; both clear the floors.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | INTC, AMZN, PLTR, AAPL, LLY | -1.02% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | INTC, AMZN, REGN, RIVN, GOOGL | +1.72% | 60% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, INTC, AMZN, XOM, LLY | -0.61% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | RDDT, INTC, MDLZ, RIVN, TWLO | +3.66% | 100% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | AAPL, AMZN, INTC, MSFT, GOOGL | -0.16% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | ALNY, NOW, GKOS, CROX, FTNT | +1.96% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-30.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.