Event Gaps: GPT-6's picks for 2026-10-30
GPT-6 picked ALNY, NOW, GKOS, CROX, FTNT for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.96%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.96% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.59% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALNY | -8.58% | +8.58% | 64% | +7.99% | Yes | |
| 2 | NOW | +0.67% | -0.67% | 62% | -1.26% | No | |
| 3 | GKOS | +0.47% | +0.47% | 61% | -0.13% | No | |
| 4 | CROX | +1.01% | +1.01% | 60% | +0.41% | Yes | |
| 5 | FTNT | -3.38% | +3.38% | 55% | +2.79% | Yes |
The model's market view
I expect substantial earnings-driven dispersion: continued downside for ALNY and NOW, further upside for GKOS and CROX, and a lower-confidence decline for FTNT. These are forecasts of additional movement within the supplied window, excluding the large reactions before its start. Expectations are uncertain because substantial information is already reflected in prices and emotional continuation can reverse abruptly.
Why each pick
ALNY
Ranked first because commercial-expectation pressure accompanies a persistent breakdown. The verified earnings-call summary reports disappointing AMVUTTRA demand conversion and TTR sales expected near guidance's low end: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/transcripts/. These affect business expectations; continued estimate reductions and selling are my inference. Before the event, recent closes clustered around $224–232. The observed reaction gapped down, rejected an attempted recovery and closed near the event-session low on 6.21 times completed-session average volume. Price evidence supports continuation down. The strongest counter-evidence is 52% product-revenue growth and maintained headline annual guidance. Emotional selling may already have overshot, creating rebound risk. A future regular-session close above the verified $185.59 event open would undermine the thesis.
latest_price=169.49 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/. The quote is below the completed twenty-session low. Pre-event baseline=$232.40 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=-27.069707%; this spans the catalyst but is not exclusively attributed to it. Much disappointment is already priced. Remaining thesis: further downside after the current quote, rather than counting the prior collapse as a future opportunity; exact elapsed-window return=null.
PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z: open=172.70; high_so_far=180.61; low_so_far=169.44; cumulative_volume=1538454 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline.
Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares.
2026-10-23 | 227.28 | 229.39 | 222.00 | 224.03 | 1055960
2026-10-26 | 226.24 | 232.48 | 224.10 | 227.66 | 1436998
2026-10-27 | 225.00 | 228.49 | 222.82 | 226.79 | 1603484
2026-10-28 | 222.72 | 232.88 | 220.00 | 232.40 | 1944031
2026-10-29 | 185.59 | 202.37 | 172.31 | 174.00 | 11802855
return_5d_pct=-23.442450; high_20d=238.96; low_20d=172.31; avg_volume_20d=1899218.50 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alny/history/.
NOW
Ranked second because slower near-term backlog-growth guidance is accompanied by sustained selling. Company evidence=https://investor.servicenow.com/news/news-details/2026/ServiceNow-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx. The guidance is verified; a persistent valuation reduction is my inference. Before earnings, closes declined from $158.96 to $150.13. The observed earnings reaction opened far lower and finished in the bottom 7.7% of the session range on 4.86 times average completed-session volume, supporting continuation down rather than an assumed oversold rebound. The strongest counter-evidence is raised full-year subscription and free-cash-flow-margin guidance. Emotional pessimism could exhaust and produce a sharp rebound. A future close above the verified $121.50 event-session high would invalidate the bearish interpretation.
latest_price=106.08 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:03:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately fourteen minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/. Pre-event baseline=$150.13 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=-29.341238%, spanning the announcement without establishing exclusive causation. The current quote has already broken yesterday's low; the remaining forecast requires additional downside after this quote, not credit for that existing decline. Exact elapsed-window return=null.
PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:03:00Z: open=109.13; high_so_far=109.90; low_so_far=null; cumulative_volume=10025436 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/. The displayed low conflicted with the last price, so it is unverified. Relative intraday volume cannot be established.
Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares.
2026-10-23 | 156.38 | 159.50 | 153.72 | 158.96 | 11100759
2026-10-26 | 158.55 | 159.30 | 155.00 | 158.18 | 14739149
2026-10-27 | 156.10 | 157.13 | 152.88 | 154.78 | 13481100
2026-10-28 | 151.60 | 155.15 | 148.22 | 150.13 | 28786305
2026-10-29 | 120.91 | 121.50 | 108.68 | 109.67 | 76427164
return_5d_pct=-30.146497; high_20d=159.50; low_20d=108.68; avg_volume_20d=15729713.75 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/history/.
GKOS
Ranked third for a substantial positive business revision. The company increased 2026 sales guidance to $775–785 million from $680–700 million and introduced a $1 billion preliminary 2027 outlook: https://investors.glaukos.com/news/news-details/2026/Glaukos-Announces-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx. These are reported facts; continued institutional buying is my inference. Before earnings, closes advanced moderately to $181.43. The observed reaction gapped to $211, held the gap and closed at 96.6% of its daily range with a small upper wick, on 4.12 times average completed-session volume. That supports continuation. The strongest counter-evidence is today's retreat below the event-session close after reaching a higher intraday high. Enthusiasm may have over-discounted the outlook. A future regular-session close below the verified $211 event open would undermine gap acceptance.
latest_price=239.98 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:07:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately ten minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/. Pre-event baseline=$181.43 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=32.271399%; this spans the catalyst and other information. Much improvement is already reflected. Remaining thesis: renewed upside after the quote as improved expectations are digested; exact elapsed-window return=null.
PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:07:00Z: open=242.42; high_so_far=248.75; low_so_far=237.05; cumulative_volume=575775 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established.
Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares.
2026-10-23 | 175.95 | 179.70 | 173.08 | 178.88 | 961189
2026-10-26 | 177.35 | 181.65 | 176.43 | 178.27 | 1067474
2026-10-27 | 178.49 | 185.86 | 176.68 | 181.17 | 1689592
2026-10-28 | 181.94 | 187.94 | 174.75 | 181.43 | 1884260
2026-10-29 | 211.00 | 243.71 | 207.41 | 242.48 | 5416241
return_5d_pct=37.234705; high_20d=243.71; low_20d=146.39; avg_volume_20d=1313933.95 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/history/.
CROX
Ranked fourth for improved earnings expectations supported by price acceptance above the earnings gap. The release verifies HEYDUDE revenue growth of 6% and adjusted EPS guidance raised to $14.45–14.65 from $13.70–14.00: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/crocs-inc-reports-strong-third-quarter-2026-results-raises-full-year-2026-outlook-302922644.html. These change business expectations; another upward repricing is my inference. Before earnings, recent closes clustered near $119. The observed reaction opened at $140 and closed near the event-session high on 3.98 times average completed-session volume, with a small lower wick. This supports continuation. The strongest counter-evidence is the size of the existing repricing relative to approximately 3% annual revenue-growth guidance. Emotional momentum can reverse into profit-taking. A future close below the verified $139.33 event-session low would invalidate the gap-acceptance thesis.
latest_price=153.19 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Pre-event baseline=$119.69 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=27.988972%, spanning the release without proving exclusive causation. The quote already exceeds the completed twenty-session high. Remaining thesis: further, smaller upside after the quote rather than repetition of the initial surge; exact elapsed-window return=null.
PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z: open=151.73; high_so_far=153.68; low_so_far=150.26; cumulative_volume=589748 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established.
Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares.
2026-10-23 | 117.21 | 121.24 | 117.14 | 119.23 | 1112626
2026-10-26 | 120.16 | 122.41 | 118.20 | 118.85 | 1152796
2026-10-27 | 118.63 | 120.98 | 117.92 | 119.50 | 1054734
2026-10-28 | 118.03 | 121.00 | 117.47 | 119.69 | 1631720
2026-10-29 | 140.00 | 151.82 | 139.33 | 150.26 | 4899332
return_5d_pct=24.192082; high_20d=151.82; low_20d=114.09; avg_volume_20d=1231693.80 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/.
FTNT
Ranked fifth because price evidence is mixed. The release verifies 29% billings growth and expanded repurchases, while the lowered service-revenue forecast is discussed here: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/3019151/fortinet-ftnt-stock-plunges-after-q3-earnings-time-to-buy-the-dip. The recurring-revenue concern is substantive; further valuation pressure is my inference. Before earnings, FTNT had already fallen from $185 to $174.08. The observed reaction gapped sharply down but recovered to the top 2.8% of the event-session range on 3.67 times average completed-session volume. That recovery is strong counter-evidence supporting reversal, not automatic continuation. However, today's quote is below both yesterday's close and today's open, weakening the recovery case. Strong billings and a buyback-supported rebound could defeat the bearish forecast. A future regular-session close above the verified $139.44 event-session high would undermine this call.
latest_price=135.46 USD; quote_time=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, approximately eight minutes old at cutoff; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/. Pre-event baseline=$174.08 at the October 28 regular close, timestamp=2026-10-28T20:00:00Z, source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/history/. Observed baseline-to-quote change=-22.185202%; it spans the catalyst and other influences. Substantial disappointment is already priced. Remaining thesis: additional downside after the current quote as service-growth concerns persist; exact elapsed-window return=null. Emotional selling may exhaust abruptly, which limits confidence.
PARTIAL SESSION, as_of=2026-10-30T15:09:00Z: open=137.09; high_so_far=138.79; low_so_far=134.55; cumulative_volume=2532216 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established.
Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted Close convention excluding dividend adjustments. Columns: session_date | open | high | low | close | volume_shares.
2026-10-23 | 172.88 | 180.17 | 171.19 | 179.99 | 3225722
2026-10-26 | 181.34 | 184.76 | 178.30 | 183.33 | 3228339
2026-10-27 | 181.41 | 186.32 | 180.82 | 185.00 | 3585303
2026-10-28 | 183.76 | 185.13 | 173.02 | 174.08 | 11099352
2026-10-29 | 127.96 | 139.44 | 127.40 | 139.10 | 17361083
return_5d_pct=-19.586079; high_20d=197.13; low_20d=127.40; avg_volume_20d=4729929.65 shares. History source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftnt/history/.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | INTC, AMZN, PLTR, AAPL, LLY | -1.02% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | INTC, AMZN, REGN, RIVN, GOOGL | +1.72% | 60% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, INTC, AMZN, XOM, LLY | -0.61% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | RDDT, INTC, MDLZ, RIVN, TWLO | +3.66% | 100% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | AAPL, AMZN, INTC, MSFT, GOOGL | -0.16% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | INTC, COIN, REGN, AMZN, AN | -0.82% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: GPT-6's picks for 2026-10-30.
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