Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-28
Gemini 1.5 Pro picked RBLX, NVDA, PEP, RLJ, COST for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +0.63%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +0.63% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.27% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RBLX | -2.07% | +2.07% | 85% | +2.34% | Yes | |
| 2 | NVDA | -0.58% | -0.58% | 80% | -0.31% | No | |
| 3 | PEP | -0.04% | +0.04% | 75% | +0.31% | Yes | |
| 4 | RLJ | -0.81% | +0.81% | 70% | +1.08% | Yes | |
| 5 | COST | -0.52% | -0.52% | 75% | -0.25% | No |
The model's market view
The US equity markets face headwinds from geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices, but specific stock events and earnings continue to drive idiosyncratic price action in an otherwise range-bound tape.
Why each pick
RBLX
Jefferies downgraded Roblox due to overly optimistic bookings estimates and margin pressures. The stock is already trading lower but continued institutional repricing through the close should add downward pressure as growth expectations are reset. The primary risk is a short-covering bounce if dip buyers step in at technical support levels. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
NVDA
Nvidia's rollout of open-source tools to govern rogue AI agents reinforces its dominance not just in hardware but in the broader AI software and safety ecosystem. This catalyst is expected to invite sustained bid flow over the session. The risk is a sudden reversal in tech sentiment from broader macroeconomic concerns such as rising interest rates. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
PEP
Deutsche Bank's downgrade highlights turnaround struggles in PepsiCo's core North American Foods segment. Given its high dividend payout ratio and shifting investor sentiment, the stock will likely experience ongoing pressure throughout the window as yield-seeking investors reassess the risks. A potential risk to this bearish thesis is defensive sector rotation if overall market volatility spikes. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
RLJ
Following Raymond James downgrading RLJ Lodging Trust to Market Perform, institutional sentiment is cooling. Despite strong profitability metrics, the lack of financial strength makes the stock vulnerable in a high-rate environment, likely pushing shares lower during the window. A surprise uptick in broader REIT sentiment is the primary upside risk. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
COST
Costco delivered a strong earnings beat for its fiscal fourth quarter, demonstrating resilient consumer demand and pricing power. Post-earnings momentum typically carries through the session as analysts digest the results and upgrade forward estimates. The main risk is intraday profit-taking if the broader consumer discretionary sector sells off. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | KOD, SPCX, IDT, MTN, GNS | +0.03% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, JEF, CCL, MU, NKE | +3.07% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | MTN, NVDA, JEF, MU, SPCX | +0.91% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | MDB, KOD, BA, MU, BWXT | -0.55% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | JEF, CCL, KMX, SRRK, TSLA | +3.51% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JEF, CCL, KMX, AIR, CNXC | -1.69% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-09-28.
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