Event Gaps: GPT-6's picks for 2026-09-28
GPT-6 picked MDB, KOD, BA, MU, BWXT for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.55%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.55% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.27% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MDB | -1.17% | +1.17% | 57% | +1.44% | Yes | |
| 2 | KOD | +3.69% | -3.69% | 52% | -3.41% | No | |
| 3 | BA | +0.77% | -0.77% | 56% | -0.50% | No | |
| 4 | MU | +2.71% | -2.71% | 54% | -2.44% | No | |
| 5 | BWXT | +1.91% | +1.91% | 51% | +2.19% | Yes |
The model's market view
Company-specific news is driving unusually large moves in KOD and MDB, while Boeing faces renewed regulatory scrutiny. The forecasts below cover additional movement from the current window, not gains or losses already recorded today. Sharp emotional moves can continue longer than expected or reverse abruptly.
Why each pick
MDB
The CEO departure and interim appointment have occurred. The intraday quote checked already reflects a steep decline; the forecast is for further weakness as investors reassess leadership immediately before tomorrow's officially scheduled Investor Day. Reaffirmed guidance and a rebound after the initial shock are major risks.
KOD
Positive Phase 3 results have occurred and were known before the window began. The intraday quote checked was already roughly 160% above the prior close. I expect some profit-taking from that level, but enthusiasm could continue and produce another sharp rise; this is a high-uncertainty reversal forecast.
BA
The reported 737 MAX software issue and FAA review are already public, and the intraday quote checked showed a sizable decline. Continued concern about certification or delivery delays could extend the loss. Boeing says existing pilot procedures address the scenario, so clarification from the FAA or airlines could reverse the reaction.
MU
Micron's earnings call is officially scheduled for September 30, after this forecast window. Its approach can still move the stock now: the intraday quote checked was lower amid weakness in AI-related shares, and I expect some further reduction in risk ahead of results. A recovery in semiconductor sentiment or optimistic earnings expectations could instead lift MU.
BWXT
BWXT's Investor Day is officially scheduled within the forecast window. Anticipation of management presentations or materials posted beforehand could lift the stock from the intraday quote checked. No new targets or contracts have been announced for the event, and disappointing presentations or broader market weakness could outweigh anticipation.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | KOD, SPCX, IDT, MTN, GNS | +0.03% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | RBLX, NVDA, PEP, RLJ, COST | +0.63% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, JEF, CCL, MU, NKE | +3.07% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | MTN, NVDA, JEF, MU, SPCX | +0.91% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | JEF, CCL, KMX, SRRK, TSLA | +3.51% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JEF, CCL, KMX, AIR, CNXC | -1.69% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: GPT-6's picks for 2026-09-28.
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