Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-28
Perplexity picked KOD, SPCX, IDT, MTN, GNS for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +0.03%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +0.03% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.27% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KOD | +3.69% | +3.69% | 82% | +3.96% | Yes | |
| 2 | SPCX | -0.84% | -0.84% | 76% | -0.57% | No | |
| 3 | IDT | +8.38% | +8.38% | 71% | +8.65% | Yes | |
| 4 | MTN | -1.87% | -1.87% | 68% | -1.60% | No | |
| 5 | GNS | -10.56% | -10.56% | 64% | -10.28% | No |
The model's market view
US equities closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and Nasdaq up 0.5%, supported by falling oil prices and optimism around US-China talks despite elevated Treasury yields. Technology and AI-related stocks led gains, with semiconductors and mega-cap software names showing relative strength into Monday's session. The 1-day horizon favors momentum names with near-term catalysts, strong institutional flows, and exposure to the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out.
Why each pick
KOD
Thesis: Kodiak Sciences is reporting topline Phase 3 DAYBREAK results for Zenkuda and KSI-501 in wet AMD today (September 28) at 8:30 AM EDT. Positive data could validate its retina pipeline and drive significant re-rating given the company's precommercial status. The stock closed at $32.35 on September 25 and has shown high volatility around catalysts. Risks: Binary clinical readout risk—if data disappoints on efficacy or safety, shares could gap down sharply. The stock has already run up over 60% intraday on September 28 ahead of the readout, increasing emotional continuation and profit-taking risk post-announcement.
SPCX
Thesis: SpaceX is targeting its Starship Flight 14 launch for September 28, 2026, with a 75-minute window opening at 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC). This is the first orbital flight attempt and first revenue-generating mission, deploying Starlink V3 satellites. A successful launch would be a major milestone, potentially driving shares higher. The stock closed at $148.68 on September 25 and has gained over 10% in the past year. Risks: Launch delays or failures remain possible given the experimental nature of Starship. Weather, regulatory, or technical issues could push the launch beyond the window, creating disappointment. The stock has already rallied into the event, increasing vulnerability to a 'sell the news' reaction.
IDT
Thesis: IDT Corporation is scheduled to report Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings on September 28, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT. The company has shown consistent profitability with net income of $70.7 million for the first nine months of FY26. A strong print could reinforce fintech and communications growth narratives. The stock closed at $67.75 on September 25 and has traded in a $45–$72 range over the past year. Risks: Earnings miss or weak guidance could trigger a sharp pullback. The stock is down 1.49% intraday on September 28 ahead of the print, suggesting cautious sentiment. Post-earnings volatility is elevated for small-cap fintech names.
MTN
Thesis: Vail Resorts is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after market close on September 28, 2026. Analysts expect an EPS loss of $5.23 on revenue of $275.6 million. As a ski resort operator, MTN's results provide early signals for the winter season and consumer discretionary spending. The stock closed at $136.11 on September 25, down 1.24% on the day. A beat or strong forward guidance could drive a gap-up on September 29. Risks: Seasonal business model creates high earnings volatility. Weak guidance or pass sales concerns could pressure shares. The stock has underperformed the broader market year-to-date, reflecting cyclical concerns.
GNS
Thesis: Genius Group is among the 12 companies reporting earnings on September 28, 2026, with results expected before market open. The micro-cap edtech name has shown high volatility around earnings prints. The stock closed at $0.1573 on September 25, up 1.48% on the day. A positive surprise or updated guidance could drive outsized percentage moves given the low share price and small market cap (~$30 million). Risks: Extreme volatility and liquidity risk—GNS is a speculative micro-cap with limited institutional ownership. Negative results could trigger a sharp decline. The stock has declined significantly over the past year, reflecting execution concerns in the edtech sector.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | RBLX, NVDA, PEP, RLJ, COST | +0.63% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, JEF, CCL, MU, NKE | +3.07% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | MTN, NVDA, JEF, MU, SPCX | +0.91% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | MDB, KOD, BA, MU, BWXT | -0.55% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | JEF, CCL, KMX, SRRK, TSLA | +3.51% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JEF, CCL, KMX, AIR, CNXC | -1.69% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-28.
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