Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-28
Muse Spark 1.1 picked JEF, CCL, KMX, AIR, CNXC for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.69%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.69% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.27% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JEF | +0.01% | -0.01% | 72% | +0.26% | Yes | |
| 2 | CCL | +11.68% | -11.68% | 68% | -11.41% | No | |
| 3 | KMX | +7.92% | +7.92% | 65% | +8.19% | Yes | |
| 4 | AIR | -8.30% | -8.30% | 62% | -8.03% | No | |
| 5 | CNXC | +2.27% | +2.27% | 60% | +2.54% | Yes |
The model's market view
Market is in late-September window with light macro calendar on Monday Sep 28 and heavy micro catalysts on Tuesday Sep 29. Pre-market movers are acquisition-driven small caps, while large-cap focus is on scheduled Q3 earnings from investment bank Jefferies after close Monday and consumer-leisure names Carnival, CarMax, AAR and Concentrix on Tuesday. Anticipation and immediate reaction to these dated earnings should drive idiosyncratic gaps over the 1-day window, with SPY relatively flat.
Why each pick
JEF
Jefferies is officially scheduled to release Q3 2026 results after market close on Monday Sep 28. This is an observed scheduled event. Price check: intraday quote $47.23 on Sep 28 from Finnhub, down 0.94%. Thesis: Jefferies is a leading indicator for Wall Street deal flow; expectations are for EPS ~$1.04 vs $1.05 prior year. With investment banking revenues volatile and stock down 23% YTD, a miss or weak commentary could trigger immediate after-hours and next-day selling. Forecast down 4% as anticipation unwinds into the print. Risk: strong trading or banking beat could cause sharp upside continuation.
CCL
Carnival Corp reports Q3 2026 before open Tuesday Sep 29, confirmed by multiple earnings calendars. Price check: $22.245 intraday Sep 28, down 27% YTD. Consensus EPS $1.35-1.36 on revenue $8.39B vs $1.43 last year, call at 10am ET. Thesis: cruise demand remains strong but fuel and cost concerns plus lowered price momentum (-10% 1-month) set up for disappointment. Expect downside gap if EPS misses or guidance softens. Risk: low valuation at 8.75x forward earnings could cause short squeeze on beat.
KMX
CarMax reports Q2 2027 before open Tuesday Sep 29, scheduled for 8am ET. Price check: $57.885 intraday Sep 28, up 49% YTD but off highs after 145 corporate job cuts reported Sep 21. Consensus EPS $0.721-0.725 on $6.95B revenue, down 44% vs prior quarter EPS $1.31. Thesis: used-car retailer faces rising rates and affordability squeeze; cost cuts signal margin pressure. Market positioned for weak EPS YoY, but even in-line may be sold due to high expectations into print. Forecast up 3.5% if cost discipline and beat viewed positively, as JPM raised target to $70. Risk: used car price deflation could crush gross profit per unit.
AIR
AAR Corp aerospace services reports Q1 2027 after close Tuesday Sep 29 at 5pm ET. Price check: $115.07 intraday Sep 28, down from $154 high, still +38% YTD. Consensus EPS $1.31-1.33 on $880M revenue. Thesis: strong MRO demand supports top line but stock's 50-day MA at $132 is well above current price, indicating momentum loss. A beat on last quarter (+$0.15) may be hard to repeat with supply chain constraints. Anticipation of print can lift stock modestly into close Sep 29; forecast up 3% on expectation of continued 23% revenue growth narrative. Risk: any miss triggers rapid de-rating given high beta 1.12.
CNXC
Concentrix reports Q3 2026 after close Tuesday Sep 29 at 5pm ET per guidance page. Price check: $24.93 intraday Sep 28, down 40% YTD and -10.5% over 5 days, trading near 52-week low $19.12. Consensus Q3 EPS $2.65-2.77 on FY guidance $10.83-11.18. Thesis: CX services firm has been de-rated on AI disruption fears and lowered outlooks; oversold bounce likely if results merely in-line and outlook maintained. Anticipation of cash preservation and high dividend yield 5.1% may support buying into print. Forecast up 4.5%. Risk: another guidance cut would accelerate decline.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | KOD, SPCX, IDT, MTN, GNS | +0.03% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | RBLX, NVDA, PEP, RLJ, COST | +0.63% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, JEF, CCL, MU, NKE | +3.07% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | MTN, NVDA, JEF, MU, SPCX | +0.91% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | MDB, KOD, BA, MU, BWXT | -0.55% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | JEF, CCL, KMX, SRRK, TSLA | +3.51% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-28.
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