Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-28
DeepSeek picked JEF, CCL, KMX, SRRK, TSLA for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +3.51%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v10 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +3.51% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.27% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JEF | +0.01% | +0.01% | 70% | +0.28% | Yes | |
| 2 | CCL | +11.68% | +11.68% | 65% | +11.96% | Yes | |
| 3 | KMX | +7.92% | +7.92% | 60% | +8.19% | Yes | |
| 4 | SRRK | -1.61% | -1.61% | 75% | -1.34% | No | |
| 5 | TSLA | -1.81% | -1.81% | 55% | -1.53% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are in a event-heavy stretch as Q3 earnings season begins and key regulatory decisions approach. Near-term volatility is likely concentrated in single names with scheduled catalysts, while the broader market digests mixed macro signals. Anticipation of several high-impact events within the next 24 hours could drive sharp moves in affected stocks, creating directional opportunities relative to SPY.
Why each pick
JEF
Jefferies reports Q3 earnings after the close on September 28, 2026. The stock has a history of beating EPS estimates (38% of the time) and revenue estimates (75% of the time) over the past two years. With a dividend yield above 3% and a valuation near a three-year low, a positive surprise could drive upside. Risks include a year-over-year EPS decline expectation and potential market volatility affecting investment banking revenue. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
CCL
Carnival reports fiscal Q3 2026 results before the market opens on September 29, 2026. The company has seen record customer deposits and robust booking levels, but analysts expect a year-over-year EPS decline and margin pressure from higher fuel costs. A beat on revenue or optimistic guidance could lift the stock. Risks include softer pricing and fuel headwinds that may weigh on results. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
KMX
CarMax is set to report Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings before the market opens on September 29, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of around $0.66-$0.73, representing year-over-year growth. The used-car market has shown resilience, and a positive surprise could drive the stock higher. Risks include potential weakness in consumer demand and margin compression. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
SRRK
Scholar Rock has a PDUFA action date of September 30, 2026, for its SMA therapy apitegromab. The FDA review is on track, and approval could come at any time through that date. Positive anticipation and a potential early approval could drive significant upside. Risks include a complete response letter or delayed decision, which could cause a sharp decline. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
TSLA
Tesla is set to unveil its second-generation Roadster on October 1, 2026. Anticipation of the event, which may highlight SpaceX collaboration and advanced performance specs, could drive positive sentiment in the stock within the window. Risks include a sell-the-news reaction if the reveal disappoints or if broader EV sector weakness persists. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | KOD, SPCX, IDT, MTN, GNS | +0.03% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | RBLX, NVDA, PEP, RLJ, COST | +0.63% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, JEF, CCL, MU, NKE | +3.07% | 80% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | MTN, NVDA, JEF, MU, SPCX | +0.91% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | MDB, KOD, BA, MU, BWXT | -0.55% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | JEF, CCL, KMX, AIR, CNXC | -1.69% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-28.
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