Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-25
Grok 4.5 picked AKAM, MU, ARM, META, NVDA for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -3.79%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-25 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-28 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -3.79% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AKAM | -4.75% | 78% | -4.81% | No |
| 2 | MU | -2.46% | 72% | -2.52% | No |
| 3 | ARM | -10.90% | 68% | -10.96% | No |
| 4 | META | -3.95% | 65% | -4.01% | No |
| 5 | NVDA | +3.41% | 62% | +3.34% | Yes |
The model's market view
Markets are mixed amid elevated Treasury yields near multi-year highs and oil prices influenced by Middle East developments, with hopes for Strait of Hormuz de-escalation providing some relief. Tech and AI-related names show relative resilience on strong earnings growth expectations and specific catalysts, while broader indices hover near flat. Information Technology leads sector performance intraday. Short-term focus remains on momentum from AI infrastructure deals and chip demand rather than broad risk-on.
Why each pick
AKAM
Akamai announced a major multi-year $11.6 billion cloud infrastructure agreement with Anthropic (potential expansion to ~$20B), driving a sharp premarket and intraday surge after the prior close of 110.41. This positions AKAM strongly in AI cloud delivery and security. Thesis: continued momentum from the deal news and AI infrastructure demand should drive further outperformance versus SPY in the session. Risks: profit-taking after the large gap-up, broader yield pressure on growth stocks, or any deal-related skepticism. Latest traded price reflects the post-deal rally.
MU
Micron continues to benefit from strong AI memory demand (HBM and DRAM), with recent sessions showing gains and positive analyst focus amid the semiconductor AI cycle. Thesis: chip sector leadership and memory pricing strength support outperformance versus the broader market in a session favoring tech. Risks: high valuations, potential yield-driven rotation out of semiconductors, or any softening in AI capex signals. Intraday price reflects ongoing strength.
ARM
Arm Holdings benefits from royalty exposure to AI and smartphone/edge computing chips, with recent volatility but positive product and design-win momentum supporting the AI architecture narrative. Thesis: semiconductor AI tailwinds and relative strength in tech should help it outperform SPY on the day. Risks: high valuation sensitivity to rates, competition in AI chips, or sector pullbacks. Price reflects rebound dynamics.
META
Meta has strong momentum from Muse AI agent and related product announcements, driving large prior-session gains and positioning it as a communication-services AI leader. Thesis: continued AI product enthusiasm and advertising resilience support outperformance versus SPY. Risks: profit-taking after sharp rally, regulatory concerns, or broader market weakness. Intraday levels show some consolidation after the move.
NVDA
NVIDIA remains the core AI infrastructure play with dominant GPU position and strong earnings trajectory. Thesis: sustained AI demand and tech sector leadership position it to outperform SPY in a session with IT outperformance. Risks: elevated valuations, any signs of AI spending slowdown, or rate sensitivity. Price reflects steady but not explosive session action.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ARM, QCOM, ADI, AMD, DELL | -4.54% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | AMD, INTC, MU, TSM, AKAM | -3.43% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, MU, PLTR, META, AVGO | -0.97% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL | +0.69% | 40% |
| Perplexity | QCOM, ARM, AMD, NVDA, SOXL | -4.31% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | AKAM, META, AMD, BB, HPQ | -3.50% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-25.
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