Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-25
Perplexity picked QCOM, ARM, AMD, NVDA, SOXL for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -4.31%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-25 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-28 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -4.31% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QCOM | -5.78% | 76% | -5.84% | No |
| 2 | ARM | -10.90% | 73% | -10.96% | No |
| 3 | AMD | -3.33% | 70% | -3.39% | No |
| 4 | NVDA | +3.41% | 66% | +3.34% | Yes |
| 5 | SOXL | -4.66% | 62% | -4.72% | No |
The model's market view
The near-term tape favors high-beta semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names over SPY. Index futures were higher, technology stocks were leading, and the strongest identifiable catalysts were Qualcomm's renewed Apple patent-licensing agreement and broad semiconductor momentum. Risks include elevated Treasury yields, macroeconomic data, Fed-speaker volatility, profit-taking and sharp intraday reversals. Sources describe the market context and catalysts as of September 25, 2026. [2][10]
Why each pick
QCOM
Qualcomm is the strongest event-driven candidate: reports said it opened about 3.05% higher after renewing its global patent-licensing agreement with Apple, while technology equipment was also advancing. The catalyst could support relative strength through the session, although the stock has already shown volatility and the licensing agreement's financial details were not fully disclosed. The latest quote I could look up was a live or delayed intraday price of $193.70 on 2026-09-25, with a reported intraday range of $191.75-$203.10. [2][28]
ARM
Arm offers high beta to the semiconductor rebound and was listed among the strongest premarket gainers, up about 4.07% in one market-mover report. The setup is attractive for a one-session relative-performance trade after the prior session's sharp decline, but the same volatility creates substantial reversal risk and valuation sensitivity. The latest quote I could look up was a live or delayed intraday price of $321.12 on 2026-09-25, versus a previous close of $306.34. [13][27]
AMD
AMD was among the higher-volume semiconductor names showing positive premarket momentum, with one report listing it near $641 and up about 1.91%. It should benefit if technology leadership persists, and its higher beta offers potential to outperform SPY over one session. Risks are crowded positioning, elevated valuation sensitivity and a possible fade in semiconductor momentum. The latest quote I could look up was a live or delayed intraday price of $612.75 on 2026-09-25; the source also reported a prior-session price of $612.07. [13][25]
NVDA
NVIDIA provides direct exposure to the session's AI and semiconductor leadership. Premarket data showed NVIDIA around $225.07, up about 0.22%, while the broader technology group was leading the recovery. The relatively modest move leaves room for continuation if risk appetite persists, but NVIDIA can lag higher-beta peers when investors rotate away from mega-cap AI or take profits. The latest quote I could look up was a premarket or delayed price of $225.07 on 2026-09-25. [2][5]
SOXL
SOXL was listed among the notable premarket gainers, up about 4.28% near $152.50, making it a direct vehicle for a continuation of broad semiconductor strength and a plausible one-session SPY outperformer. Its leveraged structure magnifies both upside and downside, so a reversal in yields, Fed expectations or chip momentum could produce a material loss relative to SPY. The latest quote I could look up was a premarket or delayed price of $152.50 on 2026-09-25. [13]
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ARM, QCOM, ADI, AMD, DELL | -4.54% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | AMD, INTC, MU, TSM, AKAM | -3.43% | 0% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, MU, PLTR, META, AVGO | -0.97% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL | +0.69% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | AKAM, MU, ARM, META, NVDA | -3.79% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | AKAM, META, AMD, BB, HPQ | -3.50% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-25.
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