Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-25
Muse Spark 1.1 picked NVDA, MU, PLTR, META, AVGO for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.97%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-25 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-28 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.97% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.06% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | +3.41% | 68% | +3.34% | Yes |
| 2 | MU | -2.46% | 65% | -2.52% | No |
| 3 | PLTR | -1.70% | 62% | -1.76% | No |
| 4 | META | -3.95% | 60% | -4.01% | No |
| 5 | AVGO | +0.18% | 58% | +0.12% | Yes |
The model's market view
SPY down ~0.08% early Friday Sep 25 with QQQ -0.15% as market digests gains. No major macro catalyst today, so 1-day alpha likely from high-beta AI/semiconductor momentum and intraday reversal. Finnhub intraday shows NVDA, AVGO flat, META -3.2% on profit-taking after Muse AI rally, MU showing strong memory pricing momentum. Bias for beta rebound into close if SPY holds.
Why each pick
NVDA
Intraday price 223.75 after opening at 225.13, down -0.37% vs SPY -0.08%, creating short-term mean reversion setup. NVDA is flagged as top large-cap to watch today per MarketBeat screener, with continued AI infrastructure demand. 5-day return +4.6% shows momentum. For 1 session, oversold intraday low at 223.45 vs high 226.94 offers bounce potential to outperform flat SPY. Risks: high beta 2.22, valuation at 28.6x P/E, failure to hold 223 support.
MU
Micron is top momentum in memory. Live quote shows daily change +10.41 (+3.77%) with monthly +27.68% and yearly +218.64% driven by HBM and AI memory supercycle. Listed among five large-cap stocks to watch today. High beta memory tends to outperform on up days and has continued bid even on flat SPY days. Intraday strength suggests continuation into next session close. Risks: extreme run (+218% YoY), profit-taking, cyclical memory pricing reversal.
PLTR
Finnhub current 191.39 with 5-day +10.91% and 1-month +10.8%, strongest momentum among software. Intraday low 190.61 already tested, up on track for highest close since Dec 2025 per Data Talk. AI sentiment and government contract catalysts support 1-day outperformance vs SPY. High beta 1.65 benefits if market recovers. Risks: extreme P/E 152.5, high volatility, large premium to historical levels.
META
META down -3.21% intraday to 752.59 after opening at 768.845, on profit-taking after 36% September surge on Muse AI and Charm reveal at Connect Sep 23. TD Cowen raised target to 865, JPMorgan to 920, Cantor to 860 on Sep 25. Oversold intraday reversal setup: low 750.54 vs high 769.57. For 1 session, mean-reversion likely to outperform flat SPY after washout. Risks: large drawdown continuation, valuation stretched after run, high volume selling.
AVGO
Broadcom trading flat +0.0186% at 350.425 vs SPY -0.08%, showing relative strength. Q3 earnings recently digested, with AI networking and VMware integration supporting demand. Beta 1.48 and 5-day +3.29% shows it holds bid on weak tape. For 1-day horizon, defensive AI infrastructure with stable price action likely to beat SPY if market stays soft. Risks: post-earnings volatility, priced for perfection, high valuation at 44x P/E.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | ARM, QCOM, ADI, AMD, DELL | -4.54% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | AMD, INTC, MU, TSM, AKAM | -3.43% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL | +0.69% | 40% |
| Perplexity | QCOM, ARM, AMD, NVDA, SOXL | -4.31% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | AKAM, MU, ARM, META, NVDA | -3.79% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | AKAM, META, AMD, BB, HPQ | -3.50% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-25.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.