Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-30
DeepSeek picked XOM, XLE, LLY, XLP, XLV for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -1.20%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -1.20% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.31% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XOM | -1.35% | 82% | -1.66% | No |
| 2 | XLE | -1.42% | 76% | -1.72% | No |
| 3 | LLY | -1.57% | 73% | -1.88% | No |
| 4 | XLP | +0.84% | 72% | +0.53% | Yes |
| 5 | XLV | -0.96% | 68% | -1.27% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are under renewed tech-led pressure, with SPY down about 1.26% intraday as AI capex concerns and disappointing Amazon and Intel results weigh on the Nasdaq while the Dow and defensive sectors hold up better. Rotation is clearly favoring energy, consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. I expect that relative-strength trade to persist over the one-session window, though a sharp tech rebound or a headline-driven reversal in oil would be the main risk to this defensive posture.
Why each pick
XOM
ExxonMobil beat Q3 adjusted EPS estimates, raised its dividend for the 44th consecutive year, and reaffirmed a $20 billion buyback, giving it both an idiosyncratic catalyst and strong relative strength. The latest intraday quote I could verify was $186.68, up 1.85%, near a 52-week high. Energy is also benefiting from higher oil prices on persistent Iran-related supply concerns. Risks include a sell-the-news reversal after the earnings pop, a pullback in crude, and the stock’s elevated RSI.
XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR is levered to the same oil-strength and earnings-beat trade as XOM, but with broader exposure across integrated majors and refiners. It was up 1.44% at $69.70 intraday and trading at a 52-week high, with XOM as a top holding. The sector’s momentum and positive relative strength versus SPY make it likely to outperform if the rotation persists. Risks are a sudden reversal in crude prices or a broad market rebound that favors high-beta tech over energy.
LLY
Eli Lilly delivered another strong quarter with revenue up 39%, Mounjaro and Zepbound beating expectations, and a third upward revision to full-year guidance. The stock was up 3.90% intraday at $1,427.30 after gaining 6.63% Thursday, and it remains in a powerful uptrend at all-time highs. Its idiosyncratic earnings momentum can outperform SPY even if the broader market stays soft. The main risk is profit-taking after a two-day surge of roughly 10%, plus elevated valuation and any sector-wide healthcare pullback.
XLP
Consumer staples are a direct beneficiary of the rotation out of tech, and XLP was up 1.24% at $89.27 intraday while SPY was down 1.26%. Staples touched an all-time high Friday morning and have been making a series of new highs, reflecting demand for low-beta, cash-generative defensive exposure. In a continued risk-off session, XLP should outperform the broad market. The risk is that a sharp tech rebound or a yield spike reduces appetite for defensive bond proxies, causing staples to lag.
XLV
Healthcare is participating in the defensive rotation and was up 0.79% at $185.49 intraday, outperforming SPY by roughly two percentage points. The sector has strong momentum from Lilly’s blowout results and raised guidance, and healthcare tends to hold up better when AI and tech capex concerns pressure the broader market. Risks include a giveback after Thursday’s 2.4% sector rally, mixed reactions to AbbVie’s in-line guidance, and the possibility that a tech-led rebound pulls relative performance back toward the index.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | XOM, CVX, LLY, MRK, XLE | -1.43% | 0% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, CDNA, LLY, XOM, MDLZ | -0.38% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | REGN, XOM, CVX, MDLZ, CDNA | -0.36% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | REGN, XLV, MDLZ, XOM, CL | +1.04% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | LLY, XLV, WMT, XLE, MRK | -0.66% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | XLP, SNY, XOM, RSP, BTSG | -0.30% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-30.
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