Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-30
Perplexity picked XOM, CVX, LLY, MRK, XLE for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -1.43%. Picks that beat SPY: 0%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -1.43% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +0.31% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XOM | -1.35% | 68% | -1.66% | No |
| 2 | CVX | -1.46% | 65% | -1.77% | No |
| 3 | LLY | -1.57% | 62% | -1.88% | No |
| 4 | MRK | +0.19% | 58% | -0.12% | No |
| 5 | XLE | -1.42% | 55% | -1.72% | No |
The model's market view
A sharp rotation out of AI-heavy technology is underway after weak Amazon and Intel results, while energy and healthcare earnings provide relative strength. I favor energy, pharmaceuticals, and other earnings-supported defensives over SPY for the next session, while recognizing that a broad risk-off rebound could lift technology and hurt this defensive tilt.
Why each pick
XOM
ExxonMobil reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.23, above the $4.13 consensus, helped by higher refining margins and elevated crude prices; the stock traded around $185.90 premarket on 2026-10-30 after closing at $183.29 on 2026-10-29. Its earnings beat, oil-price tailwind, and low exposure to the AI-capex selloff make it the strongest relative-outperformance candidate. Risks include a post-earnings fade, crude-oil reversal, or a broad market rebound that redirects capital back into beaten-down technology. Reference price is a premarket quote; regular-session trading had not fully progressed at research time.
CVX
Chevron beat Q3 estimates with adjusted EPS of $5.28 versus $4.88 expected, and revenue of $67.8 billion exceeded the $60.55 billion consensus; shares rose about 1% premarket and were indicated near $230.03 intraday on 2026-10-30. Strong refining margins, higher oil prices, and a sector rotation away from technology support its one-day outlook versus SPY. Risks are earnings-related profit taking, energy-price volatility, and underperformance if the market interprets the selloff as overdone and rotates back to mega-cap technology. Reference price is a live intraday quote.
LLY
Eli Lilly jumped after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $7.48 versus a $5.38 consensus, with Mounjaro sales up 65% year over year and Zepbound sales up 49%; the stock traded at $1,428.63 intraday on 2026-10-30, up about 4%. Strong GLP-1 demand and a clear fundamental catalyst give it a plausible edge over SPY even amid the tech-led selloff. Risks include a large gap-up being sold, high valuation, and sector-wide pharmaceutical weakness if investors reduce overall equity exposure. Reference price is a live intraday quote.
MRK
Merck reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.49 versus $2.12 expected, and the stock was trading at $150.92 intraday on 2026-10-30, up 3.14%, after closing at $146.33 on 2026-10-29. The earnings beat and defensive healthcare exposure align with the day’s rotation away from capital-intensive technology. Risks include reversal after a strong move, drug-pipeline or pricing headlines, and a market-wide rally in which SPY catches up quickly. Reference price is a live intraday quote.
XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund provides diversified exposure to the strongest relative-strength area, with XLE indicated around $69.71 premarket on 2026-10-30 after closing at $68.71 on 2026-10-29. Rising crude prices, stronger refining margins, and positive results from XOM and CVX support energy’s ability to outperform a benchmark weighed down by technology. Risks include an oil-price pullback, concentration in integrated oil majors, and a broad equity rebound that reduces the defensive rotation benefit. Reference price is a premarket quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, CDNA, LLY, XOM, MDLZ | -0.38% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | REGN, XOM, CVX, MDLZ, CDNA | -0.36% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | REGN, XLV, MDLZ, XOM, CL | +1.04% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | XOM, XLE, LLY, XLP, XLV | -1.20% | 20% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | LLY, XLV, WMT, XLE, MRK | -0.66% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | XLP, SNY, XOM, RSP, BTSG | -0.30% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-30.
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