Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-30
Muse Spark 1.1 picked REGN, XOM, CVX, MDLZ, CDNA for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.36%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.36% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.31% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | REGN | +5.68% | 78% | +5.37% | Yes |
| 2 | XOM | -1.35% | 72% | -1.66% | No |
| 3 | CVX | -1.46% | 70% | -1.77% | No |
| 4 | MDLZ | +2.32% | 68% | +2.01% | Yes |
| 5 | CDNA | -5.45% | 65% | -5.76% | No |
The model's market view
Oct 30 risk-off driven by tech: Nasdaq 100 futures -2.33% and S&P -1.04% while Dow flat, after Amazon fell 7.2% premarket despite cloud growth and Intel tumbled ~26% on weak Q4 guidance. SPY traded near $760.29 early and $765.26 premarket down 0.55%, with AI capex concerns pressuring mega-cap tech. Energy and defensive staples/biotech with Q3 beats are outperforming and likely to continue beating SPY into Nov 2 session on sector rotation.
Why each pick
REGN
Regeneron reported Q3 EPS $20.07 vs $16.42 consensus beating by $3.65 with revenue $5.12B vs $4.56B est on Oct 30. Stock rose 7.5% premarket to $880 vs $818.77 close and traded intraday at $916.44 up 11.9%. Low beta 0.13 makes it defensive vs SPY down ~1% on AI selloff. Biotech beat momentum plus Sanofi alliance provides follow-through into Monday. Risks: sharp 12% intraday gain invites profit-taking, biotech volatility, high absolute price may mean mean-reversion. Reference is live intraday quote.
XOM
ExxonMobil beat Q3 on Oct 30: adjusted EPS $4.23 vs $4.12 est and revenue $110.5B vs $104.89B, driven by refining margins surge and record Gulf Coast utilization. Stock current $185.77 up 1.35% intraday while SPY down. Energy sector up 52% YTD entering Friday and benefits from oil at $85.68 vs $64.97 year ago. Low beta 0.17 and defensive rotation from tech supports outperformance over 1 session. Risks: oil price pullback, refining margin normalization, profit-taking after 52% YTD run. Reference is intraday regular-session quote.
CVX
Chevron also beat Oct 30: net income nearly 200% to $9.9B, adjusted $5.28 vs $4.89 est, downstream earnings at multi-year highs on diesel. Stock $235.825 up 1.88% intraday vs SPY $760.29 down. Same energy rotation thesis as XOM with low beta 0.49, plus record US crude throughput. Continues to benefit from war-driven refining surge narrative. Risks: correlated to crude, downstream margins are cyclical, high YTD gains +54% may limit upside. Reference is intraday regular-session quote.
MDLZ
Mondelez reported Q3 2026 results Oct 30, flagged as S&P 500 premarket gainer +7.08% to $66.96 from $62.53 close on volume return. Intraday $64.32 up 2.86% while Nasdaq pressured by AMZN -6.25% and INTC -26.24%. Consumer staples low beta 0.38 offers defensive outperformance when SPY falls on tech. Staples seeing rotation as AI trade questioned. Risks: modest growth, FX headwinds, pullback after premarket spike, lower momentum vs biotech. Reference is intraday quote, lower than premarket high indicating consolidation but still beating SPY.
CDNA
CareDx surged on earnings: current $89.375 up 24.96% from $71.52 prior close, open $80.615 high $90.87, following prior-day earnings and testing momentum. Listed as top gaining US stock today +9.8% to +22% in different prints. Biotech testing name with 374% YTD and 29% 5-day return showing strong momentum persistence. In risk-off tech tape, idiosyncratic biotech beat continues to outperform SPY which is down ~1%. Risks: very high beta 2.57, small-cap volatility, sharp 25% move prone to reversal, profit-taking into weekend. Reference is intraday regular-session quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | XOM, CVX, LLY, MRK, XLE | -1.43% | 0% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, CDNA, LLY, XOM, MDLZ | -0.38% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | REGN, XLV, MDLZ, XOM, CL | +1.04% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | XOM, XLE, LLY, XLP, XLV | -1.20% | 20% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | LLY, XLV, WMT, XLE, MRK | -0.66% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | XLP, SNY, XOM, RSP, BTSG | -0.30% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-30.
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