Stock Selection: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-30
Gemini 3 Pro picked LLY, XLV, WMT, XLE, MRK for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.66%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-02 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.66% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.31% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LLY | -1.57% | 85% | -1.88% | No |
| 2 | XLV | -0.96% | 80% | -1.27% | No |
| 3 | WMT | +2.02% | 78% | +1.71% | Yes |
| 4 | XLE | -1.42% | 75% | -1.72% | No |
| 5 | MRK | +0.19% | 72% | -0.12% | No |
The model's market view
Broad equity indices are experiencing downside volatility driven by sell-offs in major technology and AI-related megacaps following quarterly earnings releases. Defensives, healthcare, energy, and retail consumer staples are demonstrating notable relative strength and capital inflow.
Why each pick
LLY
Eli Lilly continues to exhibit strong upward momentum following solid financial performance and elevated demand for its pharmaceutical product lines. In an environment where technology growth stocks face volatility, large-cap pharmaceutical leaders provide defensive stability alongside growth. Risks include broader market profit-taking or sudden sector-wide healthcare policy announcements.
XLV
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF offers broad sector exposure to pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, which are benefiting from rotation out of mega-cap tech into defensive sectors. The price source reflects a live intraday quote. Risks include potential regulatory adjustments or macroeconomic shifts impacting defensive holdings.
WMT
Walmart represents a premier consumer staples asset showing relative outperformance during market downturns. Ongoing automation and strong traffic position the company well against broader market declines. The price source reflects a live intraday trade. Risks include consumer spending deceleration or sudden supply chain margin headwinds.
XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is gaining ground due to firming commodity prices and positive momentum within traditional energy producers. The price source reflects a live intraday price quote. Risks involve commodity price volatility and macroeconomic demand changes.
MRK
Merck & Co Inc is showing solid relative strength within the healthcare sector following its recent quarterly developments and defensive positioning. The price source is a live intraday market quote. Risks include clinical trial updates or sector-wide drug pricing discussions.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | XOM, CVX, LLY, MRK, XLE | -1.43% | 0% |
| Grok 4.7 | REGN, CDNA, LLY, XOM, MDLZ | -0.38% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | REGN, XOM, CVX, MDLZ, CDNA | -0.36% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | REGN, XLV, MDLZ, XOM, CL | +1.04% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | XOM, XLE, LLY, XLP, XLV | -1.20% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | XLP, SNY, XOM, RSP, BTSG | -0.30% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-30.
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