Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-23
Grok 4.5 picked IONQ, PLTR, MU, AMD, NVDA for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -0.25%. Picks that beat SPY: 40%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-24 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -0.25% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.70% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IONQ | -0.71% | 58% | -0.01% | No |
| 2 | PLTR | +0.10% | 55% | +0.80% | Yes |
| 3 | MU | -2.10% | 52% | -1.40% | No |
| 4 | AMD | -0.45% | 50% | +0.25% | Yes |
| 5 | NVDA | -1.57% | 48% | -0.87% | No |
The model's market view
SPY is modestly lower on the session amid mixed equity tone. Semiconductor and AI-related names retain residual momentum from the prior multi-day advance, while quantum and software platforms show relative strength that can support outperformance over a single trading session.
Why each pick
IONQ
IonQ is trading higher on the session with elevated volume after recent partnership news and broader AI/quantum interest. Relative strength versus the broader market supports potential continuation over the next session. Risk is high volatility and rapid mean-reversion if risk appetite fades.
PLTR
Palantir is advancing on the day with constructive technicals and ongoing commercial AI contract momentum. The stock has shown relative resilience and can outperform a flat-to-down SPY if software/AI flows persist. Risk includes valuation sensitivity and profit-taking after recent gains.
MU
Micron retains strong multi-day momentum from memory demand and semiconductor sector strength despite modest session giveback. Residual buying interest and sector leadership can support outperformance versus SPY. Risk is profit-taking after the sharp prior advance and sensitivity to broader tech flows.
AMD
AMD continues to benefit from AI and semiconductor momentum with elevated recent volume and price recovery. Relative sector strength offers a path to outperform SPY over one session. Risk includes high beta and potential consolidation after consecutive strong sessions.
NVDA
NVIDIA remains the core AI semiconductor leader and has shown constructive price action near recent highs. Sector leadership and residual momentum can support modest outperformance versus SPY. Risk is limited near-term catalysts and possible digestion after the multi-week advance.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, OIH, XOM, VKTX, XLV | -1.92% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | IONQ, MSFT, SOXL, NVDA, GOOG | -1.01% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, SOXL, GOOG, AAPL | -0.87% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | IONQ, CTAS, WOR, NVDA, UAL | -1.23% | 0% |
| Kimi | META, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, LLY | +0.92% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | IONQ, MRNA, PLTR, CBRL, FUN | +1.84% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-23.
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