Stock Selection: Kimi's picks for 2026-09-23
Kimi picked META, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, LLY for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.92%. Picks that beat SPY: 60%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Kimi |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-24 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.92% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.70% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | META | +1.10% | 78% | +1.80% | Yes |
| 2 | MSFT | -0.70% | 72% | -0.00% | No |
| 3 | NVDA | -1.57% | 68% | -0.87% | No |
| 4 | AMD | -0.45% | 64% | +0.25% | Yes |
| 5 | LLY | +2.71% | 62% | +3.41% | Yes |
The model's market view
The Fed's first rate hike in three years on Sept 16 (to 3.75%-4.00%) with hawkish guidance from Chair Warsh has created a cautious tape, with SPY down ~0.6% intraday on Sept 23 near $769. Tech semis are under pressure (NVDA -1.5%, AMD -1.6%, AVGO -2.2%), while select names with idiosyncratic catalysts and quality attributes are bucking the trend. For a 1-day horizon, I favor stocks with positive momentum, event-driven catalysts, and analyst support that can decouple from index-level rate-hike digestion.
Why each pick
META
Meta is hosting its Connect event today (Sept 23), where new AI products and hardware including AI glasses are expected, serving as a strong idiosyncratic catalyst. The stock is up ~2.6% intraday, bucking the weak tape, and analysts see upside toward $800 (~19% above prior levels). Strong buy consensus (1.3 rating, 56 analysts). Risks: event-driven volatility if product announcements disappoint, high beta to any hawkish Fed repricing, Reality Labs spending concerns.
MSFT
Microsoft is one of the few mega-caps trading positive today (+0.2% intraday), showing relative strength in a hawkish-Fed tape. Strong buy consensus (1.3 rating, 52 analysts) with a mean target of $577 (~16% upside). Azure cloud and AI backlog provide durable earnings visibility that insulates it from rate-hike digestion better than most. Risks: high AI capex scrutiny, regulatory pressure on cloud licensing, broad tech de-rating if yields rise further.
NVDA
NVIDIA is down ~1.5% intraday, offering a dip-buy entry into a strong buy-rated name (1.3 consensus, 59 analysts, mean target $328, ~45% upside). Recent news highlights an immense dividend hike, putting dividend-growth focus on the stock, and the company has strong visibility into $1T+ AI demand through 2027 with Vera Rubin ramping. Mean reversion potential after a ~1.5% single-day decline in a still-upward trend. Risks: hawkish Fed pressure on high-multiple tech, China export restrictions, AI-capex sustainability debate.
AMD
AMD is down ~1.6% intraday, creating a short-term entry into a strong buy-rated semi (1.5 consensus, 50 analysts, mean target $617). Q2 FY2026 revenue grew >50% YoY with data center sales accelerating into late 2026; analysts expect >40% growth in 2026. High-beta name that typically outperforms on any dovish surprise or AI-sector bounce. Risks: hawkish Fed disproportionately hits high-multiple semis, Nvidia's GPU dominance, TSMC supply-chain geopolitics.
LLY
Eli Lilly offers defensive-growth characteristics in a rising-rate environment, with Mounjaro/Zepbound obesity-drug momentum driving ~48% revenue growth. Buy-rated (1.6 consensus, 29 analysts, mean target $1325, ~14% upside). Healthcare has been a relative safe haven during the current Fed-hike digestion, and LLY's growth profile justifies premium valuation. Down ~1% intraday, providing entry. Risks: premium valuation compression under higher rates, drug pricing policy risk, competition from Novo Nordisk.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, OIH, XOM, VKTX, XLV | -1.92% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | IONQ, MSFT, SOXL, NVDA, GOOG | -1.01% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, SOXL, GOOG, AAPL | -0.87% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | IONQ, PLTR, MU, AMD, NVDA | -0.25% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IONQ, CTAS, WOR, NVDA, UAL | -1.23% | 0% |
| DeepSeek | IONQ, MRNA, PLTR, CBRL, FUN | +1.84% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Kimi's picks for 2026-09-23.
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