Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-23
DeepSeek picked IONQ, MRNA, PLTR, CBRL, FUN for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +1.84%. Picks that beat SPY: 80%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-24 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +1.84% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -0.70% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IONQ | -0.71% | 75% | -0.01% | No |
| 2 | MRNA | +0.07% | 72% | +0.77% | Yes |
| 3 | PLTR | +0.10% | 70% | +0.80% | Yes |
| 4 | CBRL | +4.19% | 68% | +4.88% | Yes |
| 5 | FUN | +2.04% | 62% | +2.74% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities enter the session with mixed signals: the Nasdaq hit a record high on AI and semiconductor momentum, but breadth is extremely narrow (only a handful of mega-cap names are driving gains, with 257 S&P 500 constituents below their 200-day moving averages). Rising Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar are headwinds for broad market multiples. SPY is trading around $773, with support at $766 and resistance near $779. The setup favors high-conviction, catalyst-driven individual names over broad index exposure, as stock-specific news (quantum breakthrough, cancer-vaccine data, activist campaigns, earnings beats) is creating sharp single-session moves that can outpace SPY.
Why each pick
IONQ
IonQ announced the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder running on a single standard CPU, supporting up to 408 logical qubits and over 31.5 million quantum operations with as little as 0.02% execution-time overhead. The stock surged over 10% in premarket and early trading, with intraday highs above $46. The breakthrough, coupled with an Nvidia partnership and the Quantum World Congress catalyst, has created intense momentum. Risks include extreme volatility (5-year beta of 3.30), the stock trading roughly 48% below its 52-week high, and the possibility of a sharp intraday reversal given the speculative nature of quantum computing names. The narrow market breadth could amplify a sell-off in high-beta names if SPY turns negative.
MRNA
Moderna is riding sustained momentum from its mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene, co-developed with Merck) which met primary endpoints in a Phase III melanoma trial. Three abstracts have been accepted for presentation at the ESMO Congress 2026, and full Phase III data are expected in October. The stock rose over 5% intraday, hitting a new 2023 high above $192. The catalyst pipeline is unusually dense for a one-day horizon, and the stock has demonstrated the ability to make large single-session moves (it nearly tripled in one day in August on Phase III data). Risks include UBS maintaining a Neutral rating with a $150 target, implying significant downside from current levels, and the stock's wide intraday range (over 10% on Tuesday) suggesting elevated volatility. Any negative pre-ESMO commentary could trigger profit-taking.
PLTR
Palantir is benefiting from the FAA's deployment of its AI-based SMART flight management system at three major Washington-area airports, the first operational deployment of the technology in the US. Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating with a $225 target, noting that the FAA contract expansion could significantly boost government revenues. The stock hit a fresh 2026 high above $193 in morning trading, clearing a recent peak of $188.37. Palantir is also riding the broader AI application-software rally. Risks include the stock trading at a premium valuation (GF Value estimates fair value at $180.41) and the possibility that the FAA catalyst is already partially priced in after the initial 5% pop. If market breadth continues to deteriorate, high-multiple AI names could see outsized profit-taking.
CBRL
Cracker Barrel reported fiscal Q4 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.99, crushing the consensus estimate of $0.10 by $0.89, on revenue of $849.3 million (slightly above estimates). More importantly, the company issued fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance that beat the average analyst estimate, signaling improving traffic trends. The stock gapped up at the open and traded as high as $47.57, up over 4% from the prior close. The earnings surprise is substantial and the guidance is a forward-looking catalyst. Risks include the fact that revenue still declined 2.2% year-over-year, the stock has a Moderate Sell analyst consensus with an average target of $46.50, and the premarket gap may attract sellers once the initial enthusiasm fades. The dividend sustainability question also lingers.
FUN
Six Flags Entertainment is under pressure from activist investor Jana Partners, which sent a letter to the board urging it to immediately hire an investment bank to explore a potential sale. The stock jumped 5.5% in after-hours trading and is trading around $12.70 intraday. The average analyst price target of $21.18 implies over 72% upside, suggesting significant undervaluation if a sale process materializes. The stock is down roughly 42% over the past 12 months, making it a deep-value activist target. Risks include the company's high debt load, the fact that the board may resist a sale, and the very low absolute share price which can attract speculative flows. The 1-day horizon may be too short for a full re-rating, but activist news flow typically drives multi-day momentum.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | XLE, OIH, XOM, VKTX, XLV | -1.92% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | IONQ, MSFT, SOXL, NVDA, GOOG | -1.01% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, SOXL, GOOG, AAPL | -0.87% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | IONQ, PLTR, MU, AMD, NVDA | -0.25% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IONQ, CTAS, WOR, NVDA, UAL | -1.23% | 0% |
| Kimi | META, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, LLY | +0.92% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-23.
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