Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-29
Grok 4.5 picked KOD, MDB, BA, QCOM, BE for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -3.92%. Directions called correctly: 0%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -3.92% |
| Directions called correctly | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KOD | down | +4.77% | -4.77% | 55% | -5.28% | No |
| 2 | MDB | down | +10.29% | -10.29% | 62% | -10.80% | No |
| 3 | BA | up | -0.30% | -0.30% | 58% | -0.81% | No |
| 4 | QCOM | up | -1.28% | -1.28% | 57% | -1.79% | No |
| 5 | BE | up | -2.95% | -2.95% | 54% | -3.46% | No |
The model's market view
US equities opened mixed on September 29 after a broad decline on September 28 driven by rising Treasury yields, geopolitical oil concerns, and selective AI/tech pressure. Extreme movers from the prior session show high volatility in biotech and software names, with potential for mean-reversion in large-cap losers and continuation risk in parabolic gainers.
Why each pick
KOD
Kodiak Sciences surged nearly 178% on September 28 on positive clinical data for its retinal therapy platform, a substantive catalyst that drove heavy volume. Extreme one-day gains of this magnitude often face profit-taking the next session; current quote near 86.55 (intraday September 29, modestly below prior close) supports a short-term reversal lower rather than immediate continuation. Market cap confirmed above 5B.
MDB
MongoDB fell 18.46% on September 28 after its CEO resigned abruptly to join Meta, a clear negative leadership catalyst that is substantive. The stock remains under pressure with current quote around 324 (intraday September 29). Continuation of the decline is favored as succession uncertainty and pre-Investor-Day overhang persist. Market cap well above 1B.
BA
Boeing dropped 6.91% on September 28 on reports of a 737 MAX software glitch delaying certification, a substantive operational setback. Shares have begun recovering in early September 29 trading near 190. A short-term reversal higher is expected as the news is digested and production backlog remains intact. Large-cap status confirmed.
QCOM
Qualcomm declined 7.17% on September 28 amid broader semiconductor and AI-related selling plus insider activity, a mix of sector and company-specific pressure. Current quote near 189 shows early stabilization. Reversal higher is favored as the prior drop appears overdone relative to recent positive licensing news. Market cap exceeds 190B.
BE
Bloom Energy fell about 8.95% on September 28 after a strong prior session, with no single dominant new negative catalyst identified beyond general market and profit-taking pressure. Current intraday quote near 295 shows rebound. Reversal higher is the higher-probability path given the stock’s strong multi-month trend and solid market cap.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | KOD, MDB, RBLX, BE, LFCR | +3.22% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | PANW, ARM, QCOM, CRWD, BE | -0.09% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | BE, DASH, PSKY, CRWD, QCOM | +1.33% | 80% |
| Perplexity | SMMT, SSTI, IOVA, QURE, FICO | +3.28% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | KOD, ARM, QCOM, DASH, INTC | -1.39% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | MDB, SMMT, NVTS, KOD, BA | +1.77% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-29.
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