Extreme Movers: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-29
DeepSeek picked KOD, ARM, QCOM, DASH, INTC for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -1.39%. Directions called correctly: 20%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -1.39% |
| Directions called correctly | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KOD | down | +4.77% | -4.77% | 65% | -5.28% | No |
| 2 | ARM | up | -2.29% | -2.29% | 60% | -2.80% | No |
| 3 | QCOM | up | -1.28% | -1.28% | 58% | -1.79% | No |
| 4 | DASH | up | +3.14% | +3.14% | 55% | +2.63% | Yes |
| 5 | INTC | down | +1.77% | -1.77% | 52% | -2.28% | No |
The model's market view
US equities enter the target session after a broad risk-off Monday (Sep 28, 2026) driven by a semiconductor selloff sparked by OpenAI pausing its most advanced AI model training and testing, surging oil prices, and rising Treasury yields. The Dow fell 0.67%, the S&P 500 lost 0.77%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.92%. Chip names bore the brunt: ARM -8.70%, Qualcomm -7.17%, Intel -5.67%, while Nvidia bucked the trend with a +1.68% gain. Biotech Kodiak Sciences was the standout gainer, surging 177.96% on positive Phase 3 data for its eye-disease drugs. The market backdrop remains fragile, with inflation concerns and AI-spending doubts likely to keep pressure on semiconductors, though oversold bounces are possible. I expect mean-reversion in some of Monday's hardest-hit chip names and profit-taking in the parabolic Kodiak move.
Why each pick
KOD
Kodiak Sciences surged 177.96% on Sep 28 after its Phase 3 DAYBREAK trial for wet AMD met primary endpoints for both Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted, a substantive catalyst. The stock closed at $89.92, its best day on record, and pre-market on Sep 29 showed profit-taking with a quote of $87.39 (-2.81%). With such a parabolic one-day move and no new fundamental news, I expect a reversal lower as short-term traders lock in gains and the stock mean-reverts. Risk: continued analyst upgrades or buyout speculation could extend the rally. Reference price is the Sep 29 pre-market quote ($87.39) from Sohu Finance; market cap is from stockanalysis.com ($5.64B).
ARM
ARM fell 8.70% on Sep 28 as part of a broad semiconductor selloff triggered by OpenAI pausing advanced AI model training and rising Treasury yields. The catalyst is speculative and sentiment-driven rather than fundamental: ARM's long-term AI data-center CPU narrative remains intact, and no company-specific negative news emerged. The stock closed at $283.33 and pre-market on Sep 29 traded at $287.70 (+1.54%), indicating early stabilization. I expect a reversal higher as the oversold bounce extends and dip-buyers step in. Risk: further AI-spending pessimism could keep chips under pressure. Reference price is the Sep 29 pre-market quote ($287.70) from stockanalysis.com.
QCOM
Qualcomm dropped 7.17% on Sep 28 amid the chip-sector rout and fading momentum from its Snapdragon Summit, with reports of a Samsung 2nm pricing standoff. The decline was largely macro-driven (OpenAI pause, rising yields) rather than a fundamental deterioration in Qualcomm's business. The stock closed at $187.48 and traded around $189.09 on Sep 29, showing a modest bounce. I expect a reversal higher as the selloff looks overdone and bargain hunters rotate back into quality semiconductor names. Risk: continued weakness in handset demand or broader tech de-rating could cap gains. Reference price is the Sep 29 intraday quote ($189.09) from Robinhood.
DASH
DoorDash fell 7.74% on Sep 28 after confirming a $131.5 million settlement with New York City over delivery-worker wage disputes. The catalyst is substantive but the market reaction appears excessive for a one-time cash settlement that does not materially alter DoorDash's long-term growth trajectory. The stock closed at $178.39 and pre-market on Sep 29 traded at $180.90 (+1.41%), suggesting early buying interest. I expect a reversal higher as investors recognize the settlement as a manageable cost and refocus on DoorDash's dominant delivery-market position. Risk: regulatory overhang could persist and weigh on sentiment. Reference price is the Sep 29 pre-market quote ($180.90) from stockanalysis.com.
INTC
Intel declined 5.67% on Sep 28, pressured by CPU-sector weakness tied to Meta's Muse momentum and investor reassessment of AI chip demand, compounded by Intel's disclosure of large-scale quantum-computing workforce reductions and analyst downgrades. The catalyst is a mix of substantive (workforce cuts) and speculative (AI demand fears), but the downward momentum may persist as the market digests slowing AI infrastructure spending. The stock closed at $116.03 and pre-market on Sep 29 was $116.21, essentially flat. I expect continuation lower as chip-sector headwinds persist and Intel's restructuring story remains unsettled. Risk: a broad tech rebound could lift Intel alongside peers. Reference price is the Sep 29 pre-market quote ($116.21) from Motley Fool.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | KOD, MDB, RBLX, BE, LFCR | +3.22% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | PANW, ARM, QCOM, CRWD, BE | -0.09% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | BE, DASH, PSKY, CRWD, QCOM | +1.33% | 80% |
| Perplexity | SMMT, SSTI, IOVA, QURE, FICO | +3.28% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | KOD, MDB, BA, QCOM, BE | -3.92% | 0% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | MDB, SMMT, NVTS, KOD, BA | +1.77% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-29.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.