Extreme Movers: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-29
Perplexity picked SMMT, SSTI, IOVA, QURE, FICO for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +3.28%. Directions called correctly: 80%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +3.28% |
| Directions called correctly | 80% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMMT | up | +2.71% | +2.71% | 75% | +2.20% | Yes |
| 2 | SSTI | up | +3.28% | +3.28% | 80% | +2.77% | Yes |
| 3 | IOVA | up | +4.86% | +4.86% | 70% | +4.35% | Yes |
| 4 | QURE | down | +1.37% | -1.37% | 65% | -1.88% | No |
| 5 | FICO | down | -6.91% | +6.91% | 60% | +6.40% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are showing sharp divergence on September 29, 2026, with biotech and small-cap names leading both gainers and losers. Catalyst-driven moves dominate: buyout announcements, FDA-related developments, and regulatory headwinds are creating extreme single-session volatility. The market is rewarding substantive clinical and M&A news while punishing companies facing competitive or regulatory threats.
Why each pick
SMMT
Summit Therapeutics surged after AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion strategic equity investment at an implied $18.36 per share, representing roughly a 10% premium. The deal validates Summit's ivonescimab oncology program, which has shown strong Phase III data in NSCLC and other indications. This is a substantive catalyst with big-pharma validation. Direction is up with continuation hypothesis, as the stock rose approximately 21.8% in the source session (September 29 regular session) from a prior close of $15.48, and the AstraZeneca deal provides fundamental support for further gains. Market cap is approximately $12.35 billion. Reference price is $18.80 (intraday quote on September 29, 2026).
SSTI
SoundThinking jumped over 50% after announcing it agreed to be acquired by Transom Capital Group for $8.00 per share in cash plus contingent value rights worth up to $3.00 additional. This is a definitive buyout catalyst at a 46% premium to the prior close. The stock rose approximately 51.8% in the source session from $5.47. Direction is up with continuation hypothesis, as the buyout provides a clear floor and the CVR offers additional upside. Market cap is approximately $72 million (above the $1 billion exclusion threshold is not required since price is well above $1). Reference price is $8.31 (intraday quote on September 29, 2026).
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics gained approximately 27.7% after raising full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $410-$420 million from $350-$370 million, citing stronger-than-expected demand for its FDA-approved TIL therapy Amtagvi. The company also continues expanding its treatment center network. This is a substantive commercial catalyst with real revenue growth (nearly 60% implied annual growth). Direction is up with continuation hypothesis. Market cap is approximately $4.98 billion. Reference price is $14.03 (intraday quote on September 29, 2026, per Morningstar).
QURE
uniQure plummeted approximately 35.9% on what appears to be clinical trial setbacks or negative data readouts, though specific catalyst details are not fully confirmed in available sources. The stock fell from a prior close of $39.11 to around $25.05 intraday. This is likely a substantive negative catalyst given the magnitude of the decline and the company's gene therapy focus where trial results are binary events. Direction is down with continuation hypothesis, as negative clinical data often leads to further de-rating. Market cap is approximately $2.71 billion. Reference price is $25.05 (intraday quote on September 29, 2026).
FICO
Fair Isaac dropped approximately 22% following FHFA Director Bill Pulte's announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will consolidate their loan-level pricing matrices into a single grid that places VantageScore on equal footing with FICO Classic scores. This regulatory move undermines FICO's decades-long dominance in mortgage credit scoring and directly threatens its Scores segment revenue. This is a substantive regulatory catalyst with long-term competitive implications. Direction is down with continuation hypothesis, as regulatory headwinds typically persist. Market cap is approximately $20.5 billion. Reference price is $656.05 (intraday quote on September 29, 2026).
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | KOD, MDB, RBLX, BE, LFCR | +3.22% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | PANW, ARM, QCOM, CRWD, BE | -0.09% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | BE, DASH, PSKY, CRWD, QCOM | +1.33% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | KOD, MDB, BA, QCOM, BE | -3.92% | 0% |
| DeepSeek | KOD, ARM, QCOM, DASH, INTC | -1.39% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | MDB, SMMT, NVTS, KOD, BA | +1.77% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Perplexity's picks for 2026-09-29.
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