Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-29
Muse Spark 1.1 picked PANW, ARM, QCOM, CRWD, BE for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -0.09%. Directions called correctly: 40%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-29 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-30 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -0.09% |
| Directions called correctly | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PANW | up | +4.28% | +4.28% | 75% | +3.77% | Yes |
| 2 | ARM | up | -2.29% | -2.29% | 70% | -2.80% | No |
| 3 | QCOM | up | -1.28% | -1.28% | 68% | -1.79% | No |
| 4 | CRWD | up | +1.79% | +1.79% | 65% | +1.28% | Yes |
| 5 | BE | up | -2.95% | -2.95% | 60% | -3.46% | No |
The model's market view
US session Sep 28 was risk-off for semis on rate and Iran headlines with Nasdaq -0.92% and S&P 500 -0.77%, but cybersecurity outperformed on analyst upgrades and AI-security catalyst. Extreme movers list shows split: large-cap semis ARM and QCOM down >7% on insider sales and sector pressure, Bloom Energy -8.95% as S&P 500 inclusion profit taking, while PANW and CRWD up on BTIG upgrade and OpenAI SEC unauthorized access news. Expect mean reversion in oversold semis and continuation in security momentum, with high volatility into PCE and NFP window.
Why each pick
PANW
Top large-cap gainer Sep 28 +4.63% on BTIG price target raise to $425 and reiterated Buy after management discussions. Substantive catalyst: analyst upgrade plus sector bid from OpenAI SEC unauthorized access news lifting security names. Previous close 392.09 vs prior close 374.74. Ranked 1 for momentum quality and volume 5.9M. Continuation thesis: upgrade-driven momentum typically persists next session. Price used is regular close Sep 28, market cap verified $262.11B Sep 29.
ARM
Top large-cap loser Sep 28 -8.7% on SoftBank margin loan risk and chip sector slump, trading turnover $2.6B. Substantive/speculative mix: fundamental pressure from AI infrastructure concerns but exaggerated by leverage headline. Previous close 283.33. Ranked 2 for magnitude of drop and $302B cap support. Reversal thesis: oversold intraday low 287.06 vs open 291, current quote 296.35 Sep 29 showing bounce, mean reversion likely. Reference price is previous close, latest quote Sep 29 is 296.35 intraday.
QCOM
Large-cap loser Sep 28 -7.17% to $186.71 from $201.97 after CEO Cristiano Amon disposed of 20k shares in two transactions last week plus sector weakness. Substantive catalyst: insider selling disclosure. Finnhub shows current price 188.58 with previous close 187.48, percent change 0.58% Sep 29 indicating stabilization. Reversal up thesis: insider sale is not fundamental, $198B market cap provides support, and 【entity-Apple¦canonical_name=Apple】 patent renewal news pre-market Sep 28 positive. Price used is latest delayed quote Sep 29.
CRWD
Gainer Sep 28 +2.82% to $259.25 on AI security demand lift after OpenAI unauthorized access report. Substantive catalyst: CrowdStrike rose alongside PANW as security platform leader. Market cap $264B Sep 28. Continuation thesis: security momentum, Fal.Con 2026 AI partnerships, Q2 revenue +25.8% and net new ARR $333M support follow-through. Previous change verified 2.82%. Reference price is Sep 28 close, latest intraday Sep 29 259.47 range.
BE
Top S&P 500 loser Sep 28 -8.95% to $262.87 after S&P 500 inclusion Sep 21 profit taking and concerns over New Mexico data center project using gas-powered fuel cells and China supply chain legal exposure. Substantive catalyst: inclusion rally reversal plus project turbulence. Also Motley Fool and Zacks report -8.9% as weakest in S&P 500. Reversal up thesis: $78.28B market cap, RBC Outperform $335 target implies 28% upside, Fremont facility +158k sq ft signals demand. Price used is Sep 28 close, Finnhub current 296.875 Sep 29 shows rebound started.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | KOD, MDB, RBLX, BE, LFCR | +3.22% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | BE, DASH, PSKY, CRWD, QCOM | +1.33% | 80% |
| Perplexity | SMMT, SSTI, IOVA, QURE, FICO | +3.28% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | KOD, MDB, BA, QCOM, BE | -3.92% | 0% |
| DeepSeek | KOD, ARM, QCOM, DASH, INTC | -1.39% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | MDB, SMMT, NVTS, KOD, BA | +1.77% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-29.
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