Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-15
Perplexity picked SCHW, BX, CRWV, TRV, TFC for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.64%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-15 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-16 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.64% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SCHW | +1.44% | +1.44% | 68% | +0.93% | Yes | |
| 2 | BX | +3.20% | -3.20% | 58% | -3.71% | No | |
| 3 | CRWV | +6.86% | -6.86% | 72% | -7.37% | No | |
| 4 | TRV | +0.89% | +0.89% | 55% | +0.38% | Yes | |
| 5 | TFC | +2.92% | -2.92% | 54% | -3.43% | No |
The model's market view
The one-session setup is dominated by a risk-off AI/technology tape after hotter-than-expected September CPI, rising expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike, and reported stress in leveraged AI-infrastructure credits. Scheduled Q3 earnings from Schwab, Blackstone, Travelers and Truist create discrete event risk inside the window, while CoreWeave faces continuation risk from an already reported leveraged-AI selloff. I favor earnings-driven financials selectively and lean against the most indebted AI-infrastructure name.
Why each pick
SCHW
Charles Schwab reported record Q3 2026 results before the open on October 15: revenue of $7.17 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.69, above the listed consensus of $1.61, with the earnings call at 8:30 AM ET. This is an observed earnings event, not merely an expectation. The latest verifiable quote is $97.65 in premarket trading at 2026-10-15, above the October 14 regular-session close of $96.80, implying an observed post-earnings/premarket gain of about 0.88% from the prior close; the remaining forecast is for further positive follow-through as investors digest net interest income, client cash and asset-gathering commentary. Price/volume evidence supports a constructive reaction: October 14 volume was 13.13 million shares versus a reported average of about 7.91-8.35 million, showing elevated interest into the print, though that volume preceded the release and does not by itself prove continuation. The strongest counter-evidence is the broader financial-sector and rate-sensitive selloff: hotter CPI has raised rate-hike odds, which could cap the rally if guidance on cash sorting or net interest margin disappoints. Verified completed daily bars available in the sources consulted are insufficient to report a full five-session OHLCV series, five-day return, 20-day high/low, or verified 20-day average share volume; those figures are null rather than estimated. A close back below the October 14 close of $96.80 would invalidate the positive earnings-follow-through thesis. Latest quote: $97.65, 2026-10-15 premarket, delayed, source https://www.investing.com/equities/charles-schwab. Reference price is that premarket quote; market cap and average volume are as reported by the same source/Yahoo Finance, and avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from the reported 7.991 million-share average volume times the $96.80 October 14 close.
BX
Blackstone is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results during the morning of October 15, with TradingEconomics listing an AM release and consensus EPS of $1.46; the exact release minute is not verified, so event_time uses the dated scheduled session rather than an invented timestamp. This is an officially scheduled catalyst, and anticipation is already visible: BX closed October 14 at $106.21, down 3.43% on 7.58-7.59 million shares, well above the reported 4.51-5.10 million average, suggesting de-risking into the print. The latest verifiable quote is $106.60 in premarket trading at 5:04 AM EDT, only 0.37% above the prior close, so the market has not resolved the earnings outcome. I forecast down because the stock entered the event after a high-volume decline and because private-markets fee-related earnings and realizations can disappoint when rate expectations rise; however, this is inference, not a reported miss. The strongest counter-evidence is the modest premarket bounce and the possibility that strong fundraising or deployment news triggers a short-covering rally. The October 14 bar was open $108.90, high $109.99, low $105.44, close $106.21, volume 7,584,200; the remaining completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A premarket/regular-session move above $109.99, the October 14 high, would invalidate the downside thesis. Latest quote: $106.60, 2026-10-15 5:04 AM EDT premarket, delayed, source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bx. Market cap is CNBC's $126.868 billion; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from MarketWatch's 4.51 million average share volume times the $106.21 October 14 close.
CRWV
CoreWeave is the highest-conviction downside selection because the negative catalyst has already occurred and the move shows signs of continuation rather than stabilization. On October 14, CRWV fell 15.46% to $65.78 on 108.45-111.21 million shares, roughly 3.7 times its reported 29.61-30.02 million average volume, after investors focused on debt-funded AI buildout risk, its bonds and broader AI-infrastructure risk-off sentiment following hot CPI. The latest verifiable quote is $62.77 in premarket trading at 9:21 AM EDT, down another 4.58% from the October 14 close, implying an observed post-selloff/premarket decline of about 4.58%; the remaining forecast is for continued pressure over the rest of the window as leveraged-AI concerns and rising rate expectations persist. This is sentiment and funding-cost repricing rather than a newly reported fundamental earnings event; CoreWeave's next earnings report is listed as expected on November 9 or November 11, 2026, so no same-day company catalyst is verified. The strongest counter-evidence is the stock's extreme one-day decline and its 52-week low near $60.55, which could attract bargain hunting or produce a violent short squeeze. The verified October 14 completed bar is open $71.74, high $72.52, low $64.41, close $65.78, volume 108,452,700; the other four completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A recovery above the October 14 close of $65.78 would invalidate the continuation thesis. Latest quote: $62.77, 2026-10-15 9:21 AM EDT premarket, delayed, source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crwv. Market cap is MarketWatch's $36.28 billion; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from its 29.61 million average share volume times the $62.77 premarket quote.
TRV
Travelers is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on October 16, with Yahoo Finance listing the earnings call at 9:00 AM EDT; the exact release time is not verified, so event_time reflects the scheduled call date/time rather than an assumed release minute. The catalyst has not occurred, so the trade is an anticipation and event-risk position: insurers can move sharply on catastrophe losses, underlying underwriting margins and investment income. TRV closed October 14 at $377.82, up 1.22% on 1.31 million shares, slightly below its reported 1.63 million average volume, indicating no obvious pre-positioning or unusual accumulation. I forecast a modest upside move because the stock enters the print near the upper end of its recent range and property-casualty results can benefit from favorable prior-year reserve development, but confidence is limited because the outcome is genuinely binary and the broader market is risk-off. The strongest counter-evidence is that a large catastrophe-loss disclosure or weak underlying combined ratio could reverse the move quickly. The verified October 14 completed bar is open $370.51, high $377.94, low $367.00, close $377.82, volume 1,311,500; the remaining completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A close below $367.00, the October 14 low, before the release would weaken the constructive pre-earnings setup. Latest verifiable quote: $377.82, October 14 regular-session close, delayed, source https://investor.travelers.com/investor-toolkit/historical-prices/default.aspx. Market cap is $78.804 billion per Yahoo/CNBC; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from Yahoo's 1.626876 million average share volume times the $377.82 close.
TFC
Truist is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on October 16, with Yahoo Finance listing the earnings call at 8:00 AM EDT; the exact release time is not verified, so event_time uses the scheduled call time. The event has not occurred, and the position is therefore an anticipation trade. I forecast down because the current bank-earnings backdrop is unfavorable: Reuters reported a sweep of disappointing bank results this week, and Yahoo reported that Bank of America fell about 5% after a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty, while Wells Fargo declined after softer revenue. TFC closed October 14 at $45.92, down 1.54% on 6.35 million shares, and its after-hours quote was $45.98, essentially flat, so little earnings-specific information appears reflected yet. The latest verifiable regular-session close is used as reference because no verified intraday October 15 quote was found. The strongest counter-evidence is that Truist could benefit from higher-for-longer rate expectations through net interest income, and the stock's modest decline suggests the market is not aggressively positioned for a miss. The verified October 14 completed bar is close $45.92 with volume 6,354,944; its open/high/low and the other completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A close above $47, accompanied by positive net-interest-income guidance, would invalidate the downside thesis. Latest quote: $45.98 after hours at 4:26 PM EDT on 2026-10-14, delayed, source https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TFC. Market cap is CNBC's $56.097 billion; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from Yahoo's 7.314059 million average share volume times the $45.98 after-hours quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN | -0.66% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | SCHW, IBKR, AA, JBHT, TSM | +1.84% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | TSM, PLD, USB, JBHT, IBKR | +0.43% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | JBHT, TRV, IBKR, AA, TFC | -1.15% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | RKLB, CRWV, IBKR, SCHW, MRSH | -2.07% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-15.
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