Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-15
Muse Spark 1.1 picked TSM, PLD, USB, JBHT, IBKR for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +0.43%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-15 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-16 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +0.43% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSM | +0.22% | +0.22% | 72% | -0.29% | No | |
| 2 | PLD | -0.67% | -0.67% | 65% | -1.17% | No | |
| 3 | USB | +2.45% | +2.45% | 60% | +1.94% | Yes | |
| 4 | JBHT | -1.41% | -1.41% | 68% | -1.92% | No | |
| 5 | IBKR | +4.10% | +4.10% | 62% | +3.59% | Yes |
The model's market view
October 15 is a heavy earnings day with banks and transports. Record AI-driven results from TSMC already printed pre-market, while US REIT Prologis and regional bank U.S. Bancorp beat on the open. Two high-beta after-close prints - J.B. Hunt and 【entity-Interactive Brokers¦canonical_name=Interactive Brokers】 - are scheduled after the window start and should drive anticipation trades today. Broad market is under pressure from chip selloff, creating gap-down reversals versus beat reactions.
Why each pick
TSM
Thesis: TSMC reported Q3 2026 record profit Oct 15: NT$1.49T revenue ~$46.7B +50% YoY above guidance $44.6-45.8B, net income NT$763.1B +68.7% YoY beating LSEG NT$746.34B, gross margin 66.4%, op margin 58.7%, Q4 guidance $52.3-54.3B (+14% seq). Beat is factual, occurred. Stock sold off -4.3% intraday to ~$411 despite beat due to high expectations and valuation concerns, indicating emotional de-risking. Anticipation of 【entity-Nvidia¦canonical_name=Nvidia】/Broadcom/【entity-AMD¦canonical_name=AMD】 read-through plus after-hours rebound to $422.55 suggests reversal potential. Expected move up 4% into Oct 16 close as buyers fade the gap.
Price Action: 5 completed bars from verified history: 2026-10-14 open 436.25 high 440.39 low 428.06 close 430.00 volume 15101700, 2026-10-13 439.52/445.50/437.40/445.12 vol 8573772, 2026-10-12 453.55/454.40/444.35/444.35 vol 8844570, 2026-10-09 464.21/464.83/449.75/453.31 vol 9260233, 2026-10-08 466.32/471.19/452.88/457.99 vol 13419057. return_5d_pct = 100*(430.00/457.99-1) = -6.11%. high_20d estimated null low_20d null avg_volume_20d ~11M shares but full 20d not verified null. Intraday Oct 15 shows open 415.17 high 415.17 low 407.13 close prior 430, current 411.3 down gap. Volume elevated vs avg indicating exhaustion not continuation. Counter-evidence: rich P/E ~29 and AI capex fear. Invalidation: close below $400 or Q4 guide cut. Event occurred fact.
OHLC source: https://kqtv.marketminute.com/ Historical Prices For TSM. Intraday quote: https://finnhub.io TSM Current Price 411.3. After-hours: https://public.com Trade TSM Stock After-hours Oct 15 8PM EST $422.55.
PLD
Thesis: Prologis reported Q3 2026 BMO Oct 15: EPS $1.60 vs consensus $0.78 (core FFO definition) beating by $0.82 per Zacks, updated FY guidance 6.25-6.29 vs consensus 6.27. Net margin 45.79% ROE 7.29%. Market initially faded -1.38% to 128.65 despite beat, suggesting confusion between GAAP $0.86 and core FFO $1.60 and interest-rate headwinds. Industrial REIT demand still healthy. Expect mean-reversion up 2.5% as clarity spreads.
Price Action: Completed bar Oct 14 close 130.46 per source. 5-day history not fully verified, return_5d_pct null, high_20d null low_20d null avg_volume_20d null. Intraday Oct 15 open 132.04 high 132.39 low 128.19 previous close 130.46 current 128.65 down gap with upper wick. Opened at 130.50 per thestockobserver. Volume not verified elevated. Counter-evidence: rising rates pressure REIT valuations. Invalidation: break below 116.51 12m low. Event occurred.
OHLC source: https://www.thestockobserver.com/2026/10/15/prologis-nysepld-issues-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-0-82-eps.html and https://finnhub.io PLD quote.
USB
Thesis: U.S. Bancorp reported Q3 2026 BMO Oct 15: diluted EPS $1.34 vs $1.32-1.33 consensus (+$0.02), revenue $7.97-8.04B vs $8.01B slight miss, net income $2.20B +10% YoY, NIM supported. Raised full-year revenue growth guidance 8-9%. Stock opened at $56.29 down 1.1% despite beat due to revenue miss and credit provisions $654M vs $571M YoY. Emotional continuation down risk fading, beat on EPS with expense control (efficiency 55.9%) should support bounce up 2% over window.
Price Action: Oct 15 open 56.29 vs prior close implied ~56.9. No full 5-day OHLC verified, null. 52-week range $45.02-$66.07, 50-day MA $61.05 above price indicating oversold below MA. Counter-evidence: revenue miss and rising provisions. Invalidation: close below $54. Event occurred fact.
Source for open and market cap: https://www.watchlistnews.com/u-s-bancorp-nyseusb-posts-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-expectations-by-0-02-eps/11262242.html
JBHT
Thesis: J.B. Hunt reports Q3 2026 AMC Oct 15, consensus EPS $1.81 revenue $3.59B, up 2.84% YoY expected, Q2 EPS was $1.91 +45% YoY. Freight upcycle and intermodal pricing recovery in focus. Market anticipates beat given first half earnings +30.9% to $322.58M. Stock trading at $232.47 up 0.13% today, near flat pre-event, showing muted anticipation. Expected move up 3.5% post-print as guidance lift anticipated. Event is scheduled after window start but anticipation can move stock today; actual release after close will affect final hour of window on Oct 16 open continuation.
Price Action: No verified 5-day OHLC, null. Current price 232.47 open 232.93 high 234.64 low 231 previous close 232.16. Trading tight range pre-earnings, low wick. Counter-evidence: fuel and driver cost warnings historically weigh (Simply Wall). Invalidation: EPS miss < $1.70 or guide down. Event scheduled, not yet occurred.
Source: https://finnhub.io JBHT Current Price 232.47
IBKR
Thesis: Interactive Brokers reports Q3 2026 AMC Oct 15 at 4:30 PM ET call. Consensus EPS $0.668 revenue $1.86B +13.5% YoY growth, EPS +15.8% YoY. Brokerage benefits from elevated volatility and rising rates on client cash. Stock down -2.42% to $82.10 today, -6.43% 5-day, trading below pre-market $82.72, showing pre-earnings de-risking. High bar after record quarter but IBKR navigates favorable rates. Expect bounce up 3% as short-covering into print.
Price Action: Current price 82.10 open 82.75 high 83.03 low 81.04 previous close 84.14 down gap. 5-day return -6.43% per finnhub indicating oversold pre-event, not exhaustion. No full 5-bar OHLC verified null. Volume avg not verified. Counter-evidence: prior quarter missed by 1.69% and DART slowdown risk. Invalidation: EPS < $0.60 or client equity drop. Event scheduled.
Source: https://finnhub.io IBKR Financial Market Data Current Price 82.1
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN | -0.66% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | SCHW, IBKR, AA, JBHT, TSM | +1.84% | 40% |
| Perplexity | SCHW, BX, CRWV, TRV, TFC | -2.64% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | JBHT, TRV, IBKR, AA, TFC | -1.15% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | RKLB, CRWV, IBKR, SCHW, MRSH | -2.07% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-15.
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