Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-15
DeepSeek picked JBHT, TRV, IBKR, AA, TFC for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.15%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-15 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-16 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.15% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JBHT | -1.41% | +1.41% | 65% | +0.90% | Yes | |
| 2 | TRV | +0.89% | -0.89% | 60% | -1.40% | No | |
| 3 | IBKR | +4.10% | +4.10% | 60% | +3.59% | Yes | |
| 4 | AA | +10.74% | -10.74% | 56% | -11.25% | No | |
| 5 | TFC | +2.92% | +2.92% | 54% | +2.41% | Yes |
The model's market view
Window runs 2026-10-15T14:22Z to 2026-10-16T14:22Z and captures the 2026-10-16 US opening gap. The 2026-10-14 tape was mixed-to-weak: S&P 500 ~flat at 7,805.45, Nasdaq lower on a chip selloff, big-bank earnings mixed and a hotter CPI print, so the event-driven single-stock gaps dominate and broad risk appetite is only a mild headwind. All five selections have a confirmed catalyst whose occurrence or expected occurrence time falls inside the window: three report after the close on 2026-10-15 (Alcoa, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt) and two report before the open on 2026-10-16 (Truist, Travelers). Each is forecast from its latest verifiable 2026-10-15 intraday quote, not from the 2026-10-14 close. Direction is split 2 up / 3 down, sized to the implied options move for each name. The main shared risk is that a risk-off continuation (chips, rates) truncates any idiosyncratic bounce and amplifies misses.
Why each pick
JBHT
J.B. Hunt reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-15 (confirmed); that is an event inside the window and it drives the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: management pre-announced at an industry conference that Q3 operating income would fall 5-10% sequentially, an unusual seasonal deterioration; consensus EPS ~$1.81-1.83 on ~$3.58B revenue; EPS estimates were cut ~16% over 60 days; the drivers are ~$25M higher driver costs and ~$10M fuel headwind, concentrated in intermodal drayage. The 2026-10-14 close was $232.16 (+1.36%) but the stock sits below both its 50-day ($253.97) and 200-day ($244.49) averages with RSI 40. Counter-evidence (strongest against my down call): Q2 beat by ~10% ($1.91 vs $1.73), the Street stays Buy with a $282.17 mean target, and October bid season could deliver mid-to-high single-digit 2027 rate increases. Price/volume evidence is mixed - the last bar closed near its high on above-average volume, which is a continuation risk for a bounce. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $229.39 (Robinhood, timestamp not verified), already ~1.2% below the prior close; that decline is elapsed, not part of the forecast. I expect the pre-announced margin squeeze plus cautious pricing commentary to drive the gap lower. Invalidation: in-line or beat EPS with constructive 2027 pricing commentary, or a close back above the 20-day high $242.45.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jbht/history/): 2026-10-08 O222.62 H228.94 L222.62 C228.42 V1,028,742; 2026-10-09 O228.42 H231.27 L226.69 C229.26 V713,242; 2026-10-12 O229.41 H230.58 L227.73 C228.31 V766,245; 2026-10-13 O228.92 H230.63 L224.66 C229.04 V994,843; 2026-10-14 O229.02 H232.70 L226.50 C232.16 V1,280,550. return_5d_pct=+4.28%. high_20d=242.45, low_20d=222.11, avg_volume_20d=1,058,412 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
TRV
Travelers reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-16 (confirmed), inside the window, so the catalyst is the opening gap on 2026-10-16. Verified facts: consensus EPS ~$6.90-7.25 on ~$11.3B revenue, a ~11-16% y/y earnings decline; a softening property market and catastrophe losses are the swing factors; the stock closed 2026-10-14 at $377.82 (+1.22%), near its 52-week high of $398.70, up ~40% y/y, with RSI 63.8; consensus analyst stance is Neutral with a mean target of ~$360.67 (below spot). Counter-evidence (strongest against my down call): Travelers nearly doubled estimates last quarter and carries a multi-quarter beat streak with PEAD +5.7%, so a benign catastrophe quarter could produce another upside surprise and squeeze the extended tape higher. Price/volume evidence shows a steady uptrend, which supports continuation risk for longs. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $375.57 (eToro, delayed), ~0.6% below the prior close. With the stock extended and consensus already modelling a y/y decline, I expect a sell-the-news gap lower. Invalidation: a large reserve release or much-lower-than-feared cat losses pushing EPS well above $7.50, or a close above the 20-day high $382.97.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/trv/history/): 2026-10-08 O360.63 H372.13 L360.12 C370.27 V1,076,125; 2026-10-09 O368.11 H370.91 L367.33 C368.75 V753,269; 2026-10-12 O370.06 H372.64 L368.69 C371.68 V725,397; 2026-10-13 O373.76 H374.49 L370.23 C373.28 V986,087; 2026-10-14 O370.51 H377.94 L367.00 C377.82 V1,311,841. return_5d_pct=+4.77%. high_20d=382.97, low_20d=353.79, avg_volume_20d=1,175,752 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
IBKR
Interactive Brokers reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-15 (confirmed), inside the window; the reaction prints in the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: consensus EPS $0.67 (+17.8% y/y) on ~$1.87B revenue (+12.7% y/y); client accounts +35% y/y to 5.576M and DARTs +6% y/y; Q2 beat by 11.3%; Street is Buy with a $104.04 mean target (~24% above the 2026-10-14 close). Counter-evidence (strongest against my up call): EPS estimates were cut 3.6% over 60 days on softer trading activity, and the stock fell -3.83% on 2026-10-14 on the largest volume of the lookback, closing at $84.14 below its 50-day MA ($90.35) with RSI 38.5, so momentum is negative and a guidance-driven miss would be punished. Price/volume evidence supports reversal risk rather than continuation for longs, but the sell-off looks like pre-print de-risking rather than a fundamental break given 75-80% operating margins. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $82.29 at 2026-10-15T14:12Z (delayed regular session, sina), already ~2.2% lower in the elapsed part of the window; that move is not part of the forecast. I expect a post-print relief bounce, direction up. Invalidation: Q3 revenue below ~$1.83B, a decline in client cash/NII, or a close below the 20-day low $83.60.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ibkr/history/): 2026-10-08 O87.11 H87.79 L86.28 C86.47 V2,991,462; 2026-10-09 O87.05 H88.28 L86.47 C87.87 V2,423,508; 2026-10-12 O88.22 H89.11 L87.72 C87.89 V3,015,828; 2026-10-13 O87.70 H88.02 L86.09 C87.49 V2,885,108; 2026-10-14 O86.02 H86.84 L83.62 C84.14 V4,562,558. return_5d_pct=-4.10%. high_20d=93.94, low_20d=83.60, avg_volume_20d=3,806,154 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
AA
Alcoa reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-15 (confirmed), inside the window, so the catalyst is the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: consensus EPS ~$1.54 on ~$3.78-3.80B revenue, down from $2.12 EPS sequentially; alumina weakness and cost inflation (carbon, Canadian tariffs, restart costs) offset strong aluminium pricing (aluminium sales +~50% y/y, alumina -~20%); EPS estimates cut ~3.16% in two months; the 2026-10-14 close was $40.08, a weak close near the $39.49 session low, and the stock is down ~5.7% over five sessions into the print. Counter-evidence (strongest against my down call): the Street is net Buy with a $59.90 mean target (~50% above spot) and Barclays argued near-term pressures are largely reflected, so a low bar plus strong aluminium could produce a squeeze higher. Price/volume evidence shows a weak close and negative pre-event drift, which supports continuation down. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $39.25 at 2026-10-15T14:02Z (delayed regular session, sina), already ~2.1% lower in the elapsed window; that decline is not part of the forecast. I expect the after-close reaction to extend lower on margin compression and soft alumina. Invalidation: an aluminium-driven beat-and-raise, or a close back above the 20-day high $47.49.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aa/history/): 2026-10-08 O42.01 H42.98 L41.84 C42.83 V4,233,988; 2026-10-09 O43.09 H43.28 L41.98 C42.20 V4,068,471; 2026-10-12 O41.68 H42.05 L41.41 C41.67 V4,170,911; 2026-10-13 O41.43 H41.78 L40.74 C41.49 V4,698,076; 2026-10-14 O40.91 H41.26 L39.49 C40.08 V5,681,700. return_5d_pct=-5.65%. high_20d=47.49, low_20d=39.49, avg_volume_20d=4,153,501 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14; arithmetic mean of daily share volume).
TFC
Truist reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-16 (confirmed), inside the window, so the catalyst is the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: consensus EPS ~$1.11-1.17 on ~$5.36B revenue (+~2.3% y/y); management guided Q3 revenue +1% q/q; the 2026-10-14 close was $45.57, down ~9% into the print, at 0.95x book and ~10.5x trailing earnings, with RSI 33 (oversold) and below its 50-day ($49.41) and 200-day ($49.63) averages. Counter-evidence (strongest against my up call): post-earnings announcement drift after the prior report was -9.1%, and the mixed big-bank prints of 2026-10-13/14 (hotter CPI, softer capital-markets tone) leave genuine sector risk; the falling 50-day average is a real downtrend. Price/volume evidence shows a low RSI and a stock near the bottom of its range, which supports mean reversion but not a confirmed turn. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $45.42 (eastmoney, delayed), roughly flat-to-lower versus the prior close. I expect a low bar and cheap valuation to produce a modestly positive gap, direction up. Invalidation: a miss on net interest income or credit, a guidance cut, or a close below the 20-day low $45.06.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tfc/history/): 2026-10-08 O45.23 H46.24 L45.07 C46.18 V8,881,056; 2026-10-09 O45.87 H46.32 L45.73 C46.11 V6,790,114; 2026-10-12 O46.23 H46.71 L46.23 C46.64 V6,203,922; 2026-10-13 O46.96 H47.21 L45.88 C45.92 V6,495,972; 2026-10-14 O45.42 H45.70 L45.06 C45.57 V7,568,584. return_5d_pct=-0.02%. high_20d=49.75, low_20d=45.06, avg_volume_20d=8,217,215 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN | -0.66% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | SCHW, IBKR, AA, JBHT, TSM | +1.84% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | TSM, PLD, USB, JBHT, IBKR | +0.43% | 40% |
| Perplexity | SCHW, BX, CRWV, TRV, TFC | -2.64% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | RKLB, CRWV, IBKR, SCHW, MRSH | -2.07% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-15.
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