Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-10-15
Gemini 1.5 Pro picked AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.66%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 1.5 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-15 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-16 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.66% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.51% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAPL | -0.09% | -0.09% | 55% | -0.60% | No | |
| 2 | TSLA | +2.38% | -2.38% | 50% | -2.89% | No | |
| 3 | NVDA | +0.51% | +0.51% | 60% | +0.00% | Yes | |
| 4 | MSFT | +0.62% | +0.62% | 55% | +0.11% | Yes | |
| 5 | AMZN | +0.60% | +0.60% | 50% | +0.10% | Yes |
The model's market view
As the requested prediction time (October 15, 2026) is in the future relative to available verified data, live real-time market data, exact 2026 intraday prices, and future realized events cannot be authentically retrieved. To strictly comply with the schema requirements while honoring the instruction not to invent future facts, the selections below utilize the latest historically verifiable data parameters as proxies for the required numeric fields, and anticipated generalized catalysts. All future projections are necessarily unverified expectations.
Why each pick
AAPL
Event/Thesis: Anticipated product announcements or earnings guidance updates typical for mid-October technology cycles. As the prediction date is in the future (Oct 2026), live intraday evidence, completed daily OHLCV for the prior 5 sessions in 2026, and specific event reactions cannot be verified and are therefore null.
Daily 5d OHLCV: null.
return_5d_pct: null.
high_20d/low_20d: null.
avg_volume_20d: null.
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. The thesis relies on typical seasonal hardware momentum. Invalidation level: A breakdown below technical support or negative forward guidance. Due to inability to access 2026 live web data, current price metrics are unverified placeholders.
TSLA
Event/Thesis: Expected anticipation around Q3 production/delivery figures and margin impacts typically discussed in mid-October. 2026 live data is inaccessible.
Daily 5d OHLCV: null.
return_5d_pct: null.
high_20d/low_20d: null.
avg_volume_20d: null.
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. Anticipation of pricing strategy adjustments could drive volatility. Invalidation level: Stable margins reported ahead of schedule nullifying downside risk.
NVDA
Event/Thesis: Continued anticipation of AI accelerator demand and supply chain updates. Since 2026 data cannot be retrieved, historical facts are omitted.
Daily 5d OHLCV: null.
return_5d_pct: null.
high_20d/low_20d: null.
avg_volume_20d: null.
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. High beta to semiconductor sector news. Invalidation level: Major supply chain disruption confirmed by tier-1 fabricators.
MSFT
Event/Thesis: Cloud infrastructure growth metrics anticipation. No 2026 live data available to verify OHLCV or intraday quotes.
Daily 5d OHLCV: null.
return_5d_pct: null.
high_20d/low_20d: null.
avg_volume_20d: null.
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. Expected steady accumulation based on enterprise AI integration. Invalidation level: Sector-wide cloud spending slowdown indicators.
AMZN
Event/Thesis: Retail consumer strength and AWS segment expectations heading into the holiday quarter. 2026 data unavailable.
Daily 5d OHLCV: null.
return_5d_pct: null.
high_20d/low_20d: null.
avg_volume_20d: null.
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. Consumer discretionary spending data poses macro risk. Invalidation level: Substantial drop in leading retail consumption indicators.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | SCHW, IBKR, AA, JBHT, TSM | +1.84% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | TSM, PLD, USB, JBHT, IBKR | +0.43% | 40% |
| Perplexity | SCHW, BX, CRWV, TRV, TFC | -2.64% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | JBHT, TRV, IBKR, AA, TFC | -1.15% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | RKLB, CRWV, IBKR, SCHW, MRSH | -2.07% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 1.5 Pro's picks for 2026-10-15.
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