Event Gaps: GPT-6.1 Sol's picks for 2026-11-03
GPT-6.1 Sol picked FN, AMD, SHOP, PLTR, IT for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -3.76%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6.1 Sol |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-03 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-04 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -3.76% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +1.58% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FN | -5.12% | -5.12% | 61% | -6.70% | No | |
| 2 | AMD | +0.72% | +0.72% | 56% | -0.86% | No | |
| 3 | SHOP | +5.51% | +5.51% | 55% | +3.93% | Yes | |
| 4 | PLTR | +3.76% | -3.76% | 55% | -5.35% | No | |
| 5 | IT | +8.22% | -8.22% | 54% | -9.80% | No |
The model's market view
Favor Fabrinet's earnings-driven recovery and selective rebounds in AMD and Shopify, balanced by bearish forecasts for Palantir and Gartner. Reported business growth and the market's reaction differ materially across these names. AMD's results remain upcoming; its bullish outcome is an expectation, not an observed fact. Conviction is moderate because substantial event-related moves have already occurred and several selections share technology-sector exposure.
Why each pick
FN
Ranked first because verified revenue acceleration, results above management's guidance and stronger next-quarter expectations provide substantive support for continued buying. Source: https://fabrinet.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fabrinet-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-financial . Further appreciation remains an inference; it is not guaranteed by the beat.
Latest quote: latest_price=362.81 USD; quote_time=2026-11-03T10:34:00-05:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time by the publisher; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fn/company/ . The retrieved snapshot was approximately three minutes old at research_as_of.
Before the event, shares declined through three completed sessions following October 28's rally. Pre-event price=314.70 at 2026-11-02T16:00:00-05:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fn/history/ . Observed event-to-quote change=15.2876%; this interval contains other market influences and is not an isolated causal estimate. Much of the immediate earnings repricing has already occurred. I expect further appreciation after 362.81 during the remaining window, supported by the recovery through recent trading ranges, rather than forecasting the already-realized 15.2876% again. elapsed_window_return_pct=null because the exact starting quote was unavailable.
Price-action assessment: completed history was bearish before the report, including Monday's close near its low on 1.48 times average volume. That is counter-evidence, not bullish post-event confirmation. The subsequent observed advance reverses that weakness, but the stock remains below its completed 20-session high. Strongest counter-evidence is the persistent preceding downtrend and an already substantial rebound, which creates profit-taking risk. A future regular-session close below the verified November 2 high of 337.09 would undermine the recovery thesis.
PARTIAL SESSION: as_of=2026-11-03T10:21:00-05:00; open=329.99; high_so_far=362.00; low_so_far=329.36; cumulative_volume=481886 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fn/history/ . These observations precede the latest quote. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted and not dividend-adjusted; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fn/history/ . Columns: session_date, open, high, low, close, volume.
2026-10-27, 334.10, 345.70, 325.05, 343.21, 765527
2026-10-28, 354.06, 375.86, 346.00, 367.30, 1335469
2026-10-29, 358.45, 366.65, 348.28, 348.68, 1278964
2026-10-30, 323.45, 338.19, 316.78, 327.29, 948236
2026-11-02, 331.99, 337.09, 312.20, 314.70, 1504023
return_5d_pct=-3.2407; comparison close on 2026-10-26=325.24; high_20d=515.00; low_20d=305.63; avg_volume_20d=1019472.7 shares.
AMD
Ranked second for a substantial, officially scheduled catalyst inside the window. AMD previously guided Q3 revenue to approximately $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million, and anticipated accelerating second-half Data Center sales. Those are management's earlier expectations, not newly reported Q3 results: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1295/amd-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results . My bullish inference is that confirmation of those expectations could support a further rebound through tomorrow morning. Earnings risk is binary and confidence is limited.
Latest quote: latest_price=489.03 USD; quote_time=2026-11-03T10:36:00-05:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time by the publisher; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/company/ . The snapshot was less than one minute old at research_as_of.
The event has not occurred. A verified pre-event observation is the current 489.03 quote; observed_event_to_quote_pct=null. The earlier regular close was 466.84 at 2026-11-02T16:00:00-05:00, from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/history/ . The observed 4.7532% rise from that close is anticipation and general trading, not a post-earnings reaction. It is already realized. I expect further appreciation after the latest quote, including potential overnight repricing after the report. elapsed_window_return_pct=null because the exact authoritative-start price was unavailable.
Price-action assessment: two substantial declines followed October 28's rally. Monday closed almost at the completed 20-session low on 1.50 times average volume, strongly favoring bearish continuation before the upcoming report. This is the strongest observed counter-evidence to my bullish direction. Today's rebound supplies evidence of anticipation but does not establish a durable reversal. A reported Q3 revenue figure below the previously guided $12.7 billion lower bound, or a future regular-session close below 466.07, would undermine the thesis.
PARTIAL SESSION: as_of=2026-11-03T10:27:00-05:00; open=479.99; high_so_far=497.40; low_so_far=473.54; cumulative_volume=8124082 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/ . Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted and not dividend-adjusted; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/history/ . Columns: session_date, open, high, low, close, volume.
2026-10-27, 539.49, 563.92, 538.50, 560.26, 20599918
2026-10-28, 573.08, 579.18, 560.52, 578.44, 18848560
2026-10-29, 562.27, 575.10, 560.57, 566.42, 16873264
2026-10-30, 508.53, 520.40, 492.21, 504.80, 39697503
2026-11-02, 510.71, 512.82, 466.07, 466.84, 32141002
return_5d_pct=-12.1292; comparison close on 2026-10-26=531.28; high_20d=658.52; low_20d=466.07; avg_volume_20d=21429916.4 shares.
SHOP
Ranked third for a possible partial reversal after a substantial negative reaction to a report that still demonstrated strong revenue and cash generation. The earnings release and Q4 growth outlook are verified facts; my expectation that investors will reassess the selloff is an inference. Q4 gross-profit growth guidance below revenue-growth guidance also leaves room for legitimate margin concerns, so I do not classify the decline as purely emotional.
Latest quote: latest_price=140.86 USD; quote_time=2026-11-03T10:32:00-05:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time by the publisher; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shop/market-cap/ . The snapshot was approximately five minutes old at research_as_of and slightly predates the authoritative start.
Before the event, shares were already weakening, particularly on October 30 and November 2. Pre-event price=156.22 at 2026-11-02T16:00:00-05:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shop/history/ . Observed event-to-quote change=-9.8323%; other market influences are included. The early session recovered from its opening area, although the latest quote was below an earlier 143.17 observation. Much negative repricing has therefore already occurred, but recovery is uneven. I expect further appreciation after 140.86 rather than treating the prior decline as a future opportunity. elapsed_window_return_pct=null because an exact starting quote was unavailable.
Price-action assessment: completed history supports bearish continuation, with increasing turnover, lower prices and a close near the bottom of the 20-session range; Monday volume was 1.69 times average. My reversal forecast instead rests on the substantive operating results and observed intraday recovery from 135.65. Strongest counter-evidence is the continuing gap below every recent completed daily range and the failure to retain the earlier rebound high. Selling can continue despite strong growth. A future regular-session close below the verified partial-session low of 135.65 would undermine the rebound thesis.
PARTIAL SESSION: as_of=2026-11-03T10:22:00-05:00; open=136.43; high_so_far=143.50; low_so_far=135.65; cumulative_volume=9326107 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shop/history/ . Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted and not dividend-adjusted; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shop/history/ . Columns: session_date, open, high, low, close, volume.
2026-10-27, 168.58, 171.00, 163.57, 165.81, 5485007
2026-10-28, 165.42, 169.20, 164.42, 168.22, 5688841
2026-10-29, 165.22, 168.55, 162.52, 166.89, 4549758
2026-10-30, 161.89, 162.10, 154.26, 157.49, 10541418
2026-11-02, 158.29, 160.88, 153.33, 156.22, 13931967
return_5d_pct=-7.1114; comparison close on 2026-10-26=168.18; high_20d=180.88; low_20d=153.33; avg_volume_20d=8231345.45 shares.
PLTR
Ranked fourth because persistent selling and a negative reaction to strong reported growth suggest that operating success may already be heavily reflected in expectations. Revenue growth and increased guidance are substantive positives verified in the SEC-filed release. Continued valuation compression is my inference, not a verified deterioration in the business or a claim that earnings missed expectations.
Latest quote: latest_price=169.50 USD; quote_time=2026-11-03T10:36:00-05:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time by the publisher; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/company/ . The snapshot was less than one minute old at research_as_of.
Before the event, five consecutive completed-session declines culminated in a close near the daily low. Pre-event price=178.34 at 2026-11-02T16:00:00-05:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/history/ . Observed event-to-quote change=-4.9568%, including broader market influences. That decline is already observed. I expect additional weakness after 169.50 through the remaining window; I am not forecasting the opening gap again. elapsed_window_return_pct=null because the exact authoritative-start price was unavailable.
Price-action assessment: Monday finished near the completed 20-session low, with a small lower wick and volume 1.55 times average. Today's partial-session range lies below that completed range, supporting bearish continuation. Strongest counter-evidence is the company's rapid reported growth and higher outlook, alongside recovery from the observed intraday low. Those facts could produce a sharp sentiment reversal. A future regular-session close above the verified pre-earnings close of 178.34 would undermine the bearish thesis. Emotional continuation can overshoot, and a large prior decline alone does not establish further downside.
PARTIAL SESSION: as_of=2026-11-03T10:28:00-05:00; open=168.18; high_so_far=172.66; low_so_far=165.25; cumulative_volume=20846057 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/ . Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted and not dividend-adjusted; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/history/ . Columns: session_date, open, high, low, close, volume.
2026-10-27, 198.12, 201.83, 196.79, 198.73, 19907261
2026-10-28, 197.01, 198.74, 193.13, 196.81, 20821251
2026-10-29, 198.37, 198.51, 190.36, 196.42, 20102916
2026-10-30, 193.63, 193.92, 180.81, 184.11, 27070005
2026-11-02, 186.52, 187.55, 178.13, 178.34, 37183894
return_5d_pct=-10.3098; comparison close on 2026-10-26=198.84; high_20d=212.94; low_20d=178.13; avg_volume_20d=24030466.4 shares.
IT
Ranked fifth because the negative earnings reaction supports continued repricing, but the fundamental evidence is mixed rather than clearly bearish. Gartner reported modest contract-value growth, lower reported revenue, higher adjusted profit and increased guidance. These facts are verified in the company's release, syndicated by Business Wire at the source URL. My inference is that investors may continue discounting the slow underlying growth despite improved profitability; no specific negative explanation for the entire selloff was independently established.
Latest quote: latest_price=194.72 USD; quote_time=2026-11-03T10:32:00-05:00; regular-session quote labeled real-time by the publisher; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/it/statistics/ . The snapshot was approximately five minutes old at research_as_of and slightly predates the authoritative start.
Before the event, shares had advanced across the last three completed sessions and closed near the 20-session high. Pre-event price=235.26 at 2026-11-02T16:00:00-05:00; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/it/history/ . Observed event-to-quote change=-17.2320%, including other market influences. Most of the initial negative repricing has already occurred. I expect additional weakness after 194.72, rather than another decline equal to the already-observed loss. elapsed_window_return_pct=null because the exact start quote was unavailable.
Price-action assessment: completed history supported bullish continuation, including Monday's strong close on 1.48 times average volume. Today's gap and continued trading below the observed 208.00 open reverse that setup. Strongest counter-evidence is management's raised outlook and the rebound from 185.00, close to the completed 20-session low of 184.61; this area could support stabilization. The decline's size alone does not justify further selling. A future regular-session close above the verified partial-session open of 208.00 would undermine the bearish thesis.
PARTIAL SESSION: as_of=2026-11-03T10:19:00-05:00; open=208.00; high_so_far=208.00; low_so_far=185.00; cumulative_volume=828408 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/it/ . Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted and not dividend-adjusted; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/it/history/ . Columns: session_date, open, high, low, close, volume.
2026-10-27, 227.76, 228.60, 219.42, 220.93, 1323142
2026-10-28, 217.90, 222.84, 215.79, 219.16, 831649
2026-10-29, 215.19, 225.06, 214.85, 225.06, 1045846
2026-10-30, 228.30, 231.21, 226.23, 228.79, 797871
2026-11-02, 228.51, 237.54, 228.51, 235.26, 1457736
return_5d_pct=1.8309; comparison close on 2026-10-26=231.03; high_20d=237.54; low_20d=184.61; avg_volume_20d=984925.5 shares.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | FN, FISV, PLTR, SHOP, AMD | -2.88% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | OKTA, IDXX, AMD, ANET, DDOG | -0.61% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, AMD, SHOP, ANET, AAPL | -2.75% | 20% |
| Perplexity | AMD, ANET, SMCI, QCOM, UBER | +1.00% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | AMD, SHOP, SMCI, ALAB, ANET | -2.47% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | LSCC, IBTA, FN, OKTA, PLTR | -5.38% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: GPT-6.1 Sol's picks for 2026-11-03.
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