Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-11-03
Grok 4.7 picked AMD, SHOP, SMCI, ALAB, ANET for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.47%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.7 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-03 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-04 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.47% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +1.58% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD | +0.72% | +0.72% | 72% | -0.86% | No | |
| 2 | SHOP | +5.51% | -5.51% | 68% | -7.09% | No | |
| 3 | SMCI | +0.76% | +0.76% | 65% | -0.82% | No | |
| 4 | ALAB | -10.08% | -10.08% | 63% | -11.66% | No | |
| 5 | ANET | +9.68% | +9.68% | 60% | +8.10% | Yes |
The model's market view
Markets are mixed amid US midterm elections and ongoing AI-related tech scrutiny following Apple and Palantir results. Several high-profile earnings after the close today (AMD, ANET, SMCI, ALAB) create event-driven volatility potential into tomorrow, with pre-open reports like Shopify already driving large moves. Tech remains sensitive to AI demand confirmation and margin pressure from memory costs.
Why each pick
AMD
AMD reports Q3 after the close today amid elevated AI chip demand expectations following recent sector volatility. Stock has rebounded ~5% intraday on anticipation but remains well below October highs near 658. Completed sessions show sharp swings: Nov 2 close 466.84 (volume 32.1M), Oct 30 504.80 (39.7M), Oct 29 566.42 (16.9M), Oct 28 578.44 (18.8M), Oct 27 560.26 (20.6M). return_5d_pct approx -17% from prior levels. high_20d near 658.52, low_20d near 466, avg_volume_20d ~22M shares. Volume elevated on down days recently, supporting potential for continuation or reversal on the print. Strongest counter-evidence is recent multiple large down days and high valuation sensitivity; price/volume supports volatility rather than clear trend. Invalidation if post-earnings guidance misses AI ramp expectations significantly or closes below 460. Latest quote ~490 (live regular-session ~10:30 AM EST), open ~480, high_so_far ~497, low_so_far ~474, partial volume high; much of pre-event move already reflected in today's bounce, further upside depends on beat and guidance. Source history: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ .
SHOP
SHOP reported before the open today with EPS beat ($0.49 vs ~$0.46) but slight revenue miss and margin pressure; stock already down ~9-15% from prior close 156.22. Completed bars: Nov 2 156.22 (13.8M vol), Oct 30 157.49 (10.5M), Oct 29 166.89 (4.5M), Oct 28 168.22 (5.7M), Oct 27 165.81 (5.5M). return_5d_pct negative ~6-7%. high_20d ~180.88, low_20d ~94, avg_volume_20d ~9M. Recent volume elevated into the event. Counter-evidence includes EPS beat and solid YoY growth (~32%); observed reaction is large, so further downside risks emotional continuation if guidance disappoints on the call, while support could come from holiday seasonality. Invalidation if it holds above 145 and reclaims 150 on volume. Latest ~142 (live regular-session), open ~136, high_so_far ~143.5, low_so_far ~135.7, partial volume elevated; pre-event close 156.22 to current ~-9% already reflects much of the miss. Source history: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHOP/history/ .
SMCI
SMCI reports after close today following preliminary update projecting strong revenue ($18.5-19.5B range vs prior lower guidance) and margin improvement. Stock volatile, down recently to ~30.44 close. Completed: Nov 2 30.44 (41M vol), Oct 30 32.95 (38M), Oct 29 34.43 (25M), Oct 28 35.81 (30M), Oct 27 35.09 (31M). return_5d_pct ~-10% or more. high_20d ~45-53, low_20d ~30, avg_volume_20d ~35-40M. High volume on declines. Counter-evidence is history of volatile reactions and prior misses; positive prelim supports upside if confirmed. Invalidation if actual revenue below 18B or margins disappoint. Latest ~31.5 (live), open ~31.3, high_so_far ~32.3, low_so_far ~30.9, partial volume building; pre-event path weak, observed bounce mild, post-print move expected larger. Source history: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/smci/download-data .
ALAB
ALAB reports after close today; high-growth AI connectivity name with recent record quarters and Scorpio ramp expectations. Up ~6-7% today. Completed: Nov 2 229.67 (5.5M), Oct 30 258.70 (7.3M), Oct 29 290.43 (3.1M), Oct 28 297.20 (3.3M), Oct 27 286.69 (4.5M). return_5d_pct negative ~15-20% from mid-October. high_20d ~400+, low_20d ~226, avg_volume_20d ~4M. Volume spikes on down days. Counter-evidence is sharp recent pullback and execution risk on ramp; supports potential bounce on beat. Invalidation below 220 on volume. Latest ~245 (live), open ~236, high_so_far ~249.5, low_so_far ~234, partial volume light so far; anticipation driving today's gain, further move post-print. Source history: https://stocknear.com/stocks/ALAB/history .
ANET
ANET reports after close today; AI networking beneficiary with strong prior growth. Up modestly today. Completed recent: prior closes around 164-170 range with volatility. return_5d_pct negative mid-single to high-single digits recently. high_20d ~217, low_20d ~114-160 area, avg_volume_20d ~6M. Counter-evidence includes valuation and customer concentration (MSFT/META); supports upside on guidance raise. Invalidation below 160. Latest ~169-170 (live ~10 AM), open ~165-170, partial volume building; pre-event mild positive, post expected larger. Source history: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ANET/ .
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | FN, FISV, PLTR, SHOP, AMD | -2.88% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | OKTA, IDXX, AMD, ANET, DDOG | -0.61% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, AMD, SHOP, ANET, AAPL | -2.75% | 20% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | FN, AMD, SHOP, PLTR, IT | -3.76% | 20% |
| Perplexity | AMD, ANET, SMCI, QCOM, UBER | +1.00% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | LSCC, IBTA, FN, OKTA, PLTR | -5.38% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.7's picks for 2026-11-03.
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