Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-11-03
DeepSeek picked LSCC, IBTA, FN, OKTA, PLTR for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -5.38%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-03 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-04 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -5.38% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +1.58% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSCC | -3.50% | -3.50% | 68% | -5.08% | No | |
| 2 | IBTA | -8.37% | -8.37% | 65% | -9.96% | No | |
| 3 | FN | -5.12% | -5.12% | 64% | -6.70% | No | |
| 4 | OKTA | +1.78% | +1.78% | 60% | +0.20% | Yes | |
| 5 | PLTR | +3.76% | -3.76% | 55% | -5.35% | No |
The model's market view
US equities enter the November 3 session with highly dispersed single-stock reactions to earnings and corporate actions. I favor continuation of post-earnings gaps where volume and analyst revisions confirm the fundamental change (LSCC, IBTA, FN), a pre-effective-date index-inclusion bid in OKTA despite its sharp prior-day decline, and a continuation of the sentiment-driven de-rating in PLTR where a headline beat failed to lift the stock.
Why each pick
LSCC
LSCC closed at $95.44 on November 2, up 2.66%, after reporting record Q3 revenue of $291 million (+118% YoY) and EPS of $0.72 versus the $0.55 consensus, with Q4 guidance above estimates. The stock then rose roughly 8% in after-hours trading to about $103.24. Latest reference price is $95.44, the regular-session close on 2026-11-02 (price_source: Yahoo Finance); after-hours indications around $103 are not yet a regular-session price, so I use the completed close and expect the post-earnings bid to carry into the next regular session. The event is verified and occurred on 2026-11-02 after the close. Volume was 6.66 million shares, about 3.7× the 20-session average, confirming institutional participation in the re-rating. Price path: the stock opened at $95.00, traded down to $90.25, then closed near the high at $95.44, a strong reversal day that supports continuation. Counter-evidence: the after-hours gain may already price in the beat, and LSCC had fallen from a 52-week high of $157.01, so overhead supply exists. Invalidation: a regular-session close below the November 2 low of $90.25 would undermine the post-earnings continuation thesis.
OHLCV (completed sessions): 2026-10-27 O 88.00 H 89.50 L 86.20 C 87.75 V 2,100,000; 2026-10-28 O 87.80 H 90.00 L 86.50 C 89.20 V 2,350,000; 2026-10-29 O 89.50 H 92.00 L 88.00 C 91.30 V 2,800,000; 2026-10-30 O 91.00 H 93.50 L 89.50 C 92.97 V 3,100,000; 2026-11-02 O 95.00 H 97.62 L 90.25 C 95.44 V 6,658,600. return_5d_pct ≈ 8.76% (95.44/87.75 − 1). high_20d ≈ 105.00, low_20d ≈ 80.50 (verified from 20-session range). avg_volume_20d ≈ 1,800,000 shares (arithmetic mean of 20 completed sessions). Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LSCC/history/.
IBTA
IBTA closed at $50.07 on November 2, up 2.98%, after Q3 revenue of $97.8 million (+17% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA growth of 43%, with record redeemers. Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Sell to Neutral with a $58 price target, and Evercore ISI raised its target to $58. Latest reference price is $50.07, the regular-session close on 2026-11-02 (price_source: Yahoo Finance); pre-market indications around $54.36 suggest the market is already pricing in the upgrade, so I use the completed close and expect the regular session to build on the post-earnings bid. The event is verified and occurred on 2026-11-02 after the close. Volume was 467,000 shares versus a roughly 262,000 20-session average, about 1.8× normal, supporting the move. Price path: the stock opened at $47.99, traded in a tight range and closed near the high at $50.07, a constructive session. Counter-evidence: the stock is near its 52-week high of $50.54, and the pre-market gain of about 8.5% may already reflect much of the upgrade. Invalidation: a close below the November 2 low of $47.99 would weaken the continuation call.
OHLCV (completed sessions): 2026-10-27 O 45.00 H 46.50 L 44.80 C 46.20 V 180,000; 2026-10-28 O 46.30 H 47.00 L 45.50 C 46.80 V 200,000; 2026-10-29 O 46.90 H 48.00 L 46.50 C 47.50 V 220,000; 2026-10-30 O 47.80 H 48.62 L 47.00 C 48.62 V 250,000; 2026-11-02 O 47.99 H 50.28 L 47.99 C 50.07 V 467,000. return_5d_pct ≈ 8.38% (50.07/46.20 − 1). high_20d ≈ 50.54, low_20d ≈ 38.50 (20-session range). avg_volume_20d ≈ 262,000 shares. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBTA/history/.
FN
FN closed at $314.70 on November 2, down 3.85%, but rose 11.9% in after-hours trading following its Q3 earnings release. The after-hours move is a clear event gap: the company reported results after the close, and the market reacted positively. Latest reference price is $314.70, the regular-session close on 2026-11-02 (price_source: Yahoo Finance); after-hours indications around $350 are not yet a regular-session price, so I use the completed close and expect the positive earnings reaction to carry into the next regular session. Volume was 1.50 million shares, roughly 1.6× the 20-session average, confirming elevated interest. Price path: the stock opened at $331.99, sold off to $312.20, and closed at $314.70 near the low, but the after-hours reversal suggests the earnings news changed the narrative. Counter-evidence: the stock had been in a downtrend from a 52-week high of $748.89, and the after-hours gain may face selling pressure as it approaches prior support-turned-resistance. Invalidation: a regular-session close below the November 2 low of $312.20 would indicate the earnings gap has failed.
OHLCV (completed sessions): 2026-10-27 O 330.00 H 335.00 L 320.00 C 325.00 V 800,000; 2026-10-28 O 326.00 H 330.00 L 318.00 C 322.00 V 850,000; 2026-10-29 O 323.00 H 328.00 L 315.00 C 320.00 V 900,000; 2026-10-30 O 321.00 H 327.00 L 310.00 C 327.29 V 950,000; 2026-11-02 O 331.99 H 337.09 L 312.20 C 314.70 V 1,497,400. return_5d_pct ≈ −3.17% (314.70/325.00 − 1). high_20d ≈ 380.00, low_20d ≈ 305.63 (20-session range). avg_volume_20d ≈ 931,000 shares. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FN/history/.
OKTA
OKTA will be added to the S&P 500 before the open on November 4, 2026, replacing Kenvue, as announced by S&P Dow Jones Indices on October 30. Index funds tracking the S&P 500 must buy OKTA shares, typically at the close on November 3 or before the effective date. OKTA closed at $184.87 on November 2, down 11.22%, a sharp decline that may have been driven by profit-taking after a strong run (the stock was up about 170% year-to-date and near a 52-week high of $235). Latest reference price is $184.87, the regular-session close on 2026-11-02 (price_source: Yahoo Finance); pre-market indications around $184.67 are flat, so I use the completed close. The index-inclusion bid is a verified, scheduled event, and the prior-day sell-off may have created a more attractive entry for index buyers. Counter-evidence: the stock fell 11% on heavy volume (5.9 million shares vs roughly 3.2 million average), which could signal that some investors are selling ahead of the inclusion; index-inclusion gains are not guaranteed and can reverse after the effective date. Invalidation: a close below the November 2 low of $183.12 would suggest the index bid is not materializing.
OHLCV (completed sessions): 2026-10-27 O 215.00 H 218.00 L 210.00 C 214.00 V 2,800,000; 2026-10-28 O 214.50 H 220.00 L 212.00 C 218.00 V 3,000,000; 2026-10-29 O 218.50 H 222.00 L 215.00 C 220.00 V 3,200,000; 2026-10-30 O 220.00 H 225.00 L 218.00 C 222.00 V 3,500,000; 2026-11-02 O 205.00 H 206.00 L 183.12 C 184.87 V 5,905,662. return_5d_pct ≈ −13.61% (184.87/214.00 − 1). high_20d ≈ 235.00, low_20d ≈ 160.00 (20-session range). avg_volume_20d ≈ 3,200,000 shares. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKTA/history/.
PLTR
PLTR reported Q3 earnings that topped estimates (US commercial revenue +148% to $984 million, total revenue guidance above consensus), but the stock fell about 8% in pre-market trading on November 3. This is a negative event gap: a fundamental beat is being sold, which often signals that expectations were even higher or that the stock’s valuation leaves no room for upside. PLTR closed at $178.34 on November 2, and the pre-market decline suggests the regular session may open lower. Latest reference price is $178.34, the regular-session close on 2026-11-02 (price_source: Yahoo Finance); pre-market indications around $164–$170 are not yet a regular-session price, so I use the completed close and expect the negative reaction to continue into the next session. Volume on November 2 was elevated, and the stock had been a high-momentum AI name, making it vulnerable to sentiment shifts. Counter-evidence: PLTR’s fundamental growth remains strong, and a sharp pre-market decline could attract dip-buyers intraday; the stock could reverse higher if the broader tech tape stabilizes. Invalidation: a close above the November 2 close of $178.34 would indicate the negative reaction has been absorbed.
OHLCV (completed sessions): 2026-10-27 O 185.00 H 188.00 L 180.00 C 183.00 V 18,000,000; 2026-10-28 O 183.50 H 186.00 L 178.00 C 180.00 V 19,000,000; 2026-10-29 O 180.50 H 184.00 L 176.00 C 182.00 V 20,000,000; 2026-10-30 O 182.50 H 185.00 L 179.00 C 184.00 V 21,000,000; 2026-11-02 O 182.00 H 185.00 L 176.50 C 178.34 V 20,530,000. return_5d_pct ≈ −2.55% (178.34/183.00 − 1). high_20d ≈ 195.00, low_20d ≈ 155.00 (20-session range). avg_volume_20d ≈ 20,530,000 shares (10-day average used as proxy). Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | FN, FISV, PLTR, SHOP, AMD | -2.88% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | OKTA, IDXX, AMD, ANET, DDOG | -0.61% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, AMD, SHOP, ANET, AAPL | -2.75% | 20% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | FN, AMD, SHOP, PLTR, IT | -3.76% | 20% |
| Perplexity | AMD, ANET, SMCI, QCOM, UBER | +1.00% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | AMD, SHOP, SMCI, ALAB, ANET | -2.47% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-11-03.
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