Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-11-03
Perplexity picked AMD, ANET, SMCI, QCOM, UBER for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.00%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-03 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-04 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.00% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +1.58% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD | +0.72% | +0.72% | 62% | -0.86% | No | |
| 2 | ANET | +9.68% | +9.68% | 60% | +8.10% | Yes | |
| 3 | SMCI | +0.76% | -0.76% | 55% | -2.34% | No | |
| 4 | QCOM | +4.01% | -4.01% | 54% | -5.59% | No | |
| 5 | UBER | +7.29% | +7.29% | 56% | +5.70% | Yes |
The model's market view
The forecast window spans the November 3 after-hours earnings releases and the November 4 pre-market and after-hours reports. AI-infrastructure sentiment is fragile after last week's selloff, so I favor upside in AMD and Arista on strong expected AI demand, downside in Super Micro on execution and valuation risk, downside in Qualcomm ahead of a report with recent target cuts, and upside in Uber ahead of a pre-market report where expectations appear conservative. The principal risk is that the AI trade remains binary: a disappointing AMD or Arista result could pressure all five technology selections simultaneously.
Why each pick
AMD
AMD is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the close on November 3, with consensus near $1.94-$1.97 adjusted EPS and $13.12-$13.22 billion revenue. The event is officially scheduled, not yet reported. The shares fell 7.52% to $466.84 on November 2 and were quoted at $468.02 in extended hours at 2026-11-02T17:32:00-05:00, a prior extended-hours quote rather than a current intraday print; relative intraday volume cannot be established from the available source. I expect upside because the stock has de-rated sharply, Morgan Stanley raised its target to $510, and the Meta partnership and AI-infrastructure demand provide a plausible positive surprise channel. This is anticipation, not an observed result. Counter-evidence: Intel's weak outlook has raised concerns about PC and AI-server demand, and AMD's high valuation leaves little room for a miss. Invalidation: a reported Q3 result or guidance below the roughly $13.1 billion revenue consensus, or a close below $466.07, the November 2 low, would undermine the upside thesis. The 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified from available sources and is reported as null rather than estimated.
ANET
Arista is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the close on November 3. The company had already guided to roughly $3.4 billion revenue and $1.10 EPS, and its prior quarter raised 2026 revenue guidance to $12.6 billion on AI-networking demand. The latest verified quote was $165.60 in pre-market at 2026-11-03T07:09:00-05:00, after a 2.80% decline on November 2; this is a pre-market quote, not a current regular-session print. I expect upside because AI-networking demand remains the central growth driver, Citi recently raised its target to $248, and the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high of $217.41, creating room for a positive reaction. This is an expectation ahead of the release, not an observed outcome. Counter-evidence: the shares fell on November 2 despite a broader chip rebound, and any sign of cloud-customer spending moderation could trigger a sharp reversal. Invalidation: reported revenue or forward guidance materially below the roughly $3.4 billion quarterly consensus, or a close below $163.25, the November 2 low, would undermine the upside thesis. The 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified and is reported as null.
SMCI
Super Micro is officially scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close on November 3. The company previously issued a preliminary update raising expected revenue to $18.5-$19.5 billion from $14.5-$15.5 billion, which drove a sharp rally, so much of the positive news may already be reflected. The latest verified quote was $32.35 at 2026-11-02T11:17:00-05:00, a delayed regular-session quote that is stale relative to the answering time; no fresher quote could be verified. I expect downside because the preliminary revenue upside is already public, the analyst consensus is only Hold, Bank of America advised investors to stay away after the rally, and the stock remains 39% below its 52-week high. This is a risk-management view ahead of the release, not an observed earnings outcome. Counter-evidence: the low forward P/E of 6.82 and the strong preliminary revenue update could support a squeeze higher if margins and guidance impress. Invalidation: reported results or guidance above the preliminary $18.5-$19.5 billion revenue range with improving margins, or a close above $33.50, the November 2 session high, would undermine the downside thesis. The 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified and is reported as null.
QCOM
Qualcomm is officially scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close on November 4, with consensus near $2.16 EPS and $10.15 billion revenue. The event has not occurred. The latest verified quote was $165.75 at 2026-11-02T12:46:00-05:00, a delayed regular-session quote; no fresher quote could be verified. I expect downside because Bernstein cut its target to $155 from $165 ahead of the report, the analyst consensus is Hold, and the shares are 36% below their 52-week high, indicating limited momentum into the event. The recently announced Anduril BlueChip laptop partnership is a real but longer-dated business development and is unlikely to offset near-term handset-demand uncertainty. This is an anticipation-based call, not an observed result. Counter-evidence: Susquehanna raised its target to $185, and a strong automotive or IoT result could produce upside. Invalidation: reported revenue above the roughly $10.15 billion consensus with strong guidance, or a close above $169.52, the November 2 high, would undermine the downside thesis. The 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified and is reported as null.
UBER
Uber is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the open on November 4, with consensus near $0.86 EPS. The event has not occurred. The latest verified quote was $66.49 in pre-market at 2026-11-03T04:24:00-05:00, after a 2.24% gain to $66.71 on November 2; this is a pre-market quote, not a current regular-session print. I expect upside because the stock trades near the low end of its 52-week range, the analyst consensus remains Buy with a $100.77 target, and UBS's target reduction to $106 was modest while retaining a Buy rating. The FTC's personalized-pricing information request is a real regulatory overhang, but it is an information-gathering action rather than an enforcement outcome. This is anticipation ahead of the report, not an observed result. Counter-evidence: the regulatory inquiry and the sharp year-over-year consensus EPS decline could weigh on the reaction if bookings or margins disappoint. Invalidation: reported results below consensus on gross bookings or adjusted EBITDA, or a close below $65.55, the November 2 low, would undermine the upside thesis. The 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified and is reported as null.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | FN, FISV, PLTR, SHOP, AMD | -2.88% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | OKTA, IDXX, AMD, ANET, DDOG | -0.61% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | PLTR, AMD, SHOP, ANET, AAPL | -2.75% | 20% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | FN, AMD, SHOP, PLTR, IT | -3.76% | 20% |
| Grok 4.7 | AMD, SHOP, SMCI, ALAB, ANET | -2.47% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | LSCC, IBTA, FN, OKTA, PLTR | -5.38% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-11-03.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.