Stock Selection: GPT-6's picks for 2026-09-28
GPT-6 picked XOM, CVX, IONQ, COP, KOD for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: +0.20%. Picks that beat SPY: 20%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-6 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | +0.20% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.37% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XOM | -1.31% | 62% | -0.95% | No |
| 2 | CVX | -1.30% | 60% | -0.93% | No |
| 3 | IONQ | -5.61% | 56% | -5.25% | No |
| 4 | COP | -2.05% | 55% | -1.68% | No |
| 5 | KOD | +9.46% | 51% | +9.82% | Yes |
The model's market view
Rising oil prices amid stalled US–Iran talks favor energy shares, while higher yields and renewed AI safety concerns weigh on the broader market. The five equal-weight selections combine three energy producers with two stocks that have company-specific catalysts. The main portfolio risk is a rapid easing of oil supply concerns.
Why each pick
XOM
The latest intraday quote checked was above the prior close. Higher crude prices and today's analyst target increase support relative performance against SPY. Renewed progress in US–Iran talks could quickly reverse the oil move.
CVX
The latest intraday quote checked showed a gain while SPY faced pressure. Higher oil prices and today's analyst target increase offer near-term support. A ceasefire breakthrough or falling crude prices would weaken the thesis.
IONQ
The latest intraday quote checked was higher, and Bank of America initiated Buy coverage today. That catalyst could sustain relative strength despite broader technology weakness. High volatility, valuation sensitivity, and a reversal of the morning gain are substantial risks.
COP
As an oil and gas producer, COP may benefit if the rebound in crude persists through the window; its latest intraday quote checked was above the prior close. Increased Middle East exports or renewed peace progress could push oil lower and erase that advantage.
KOD
Kodiak reported that both treatments met primary endpoints in its Phase 3 DAYBREAK trial, creating a strong company-specific catalyst. The latest intraday quote checked had already risen sharply, so profit-taking and uncertainty about eventual regulatory approval make this the riskiest selection.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, XOM, AAPL, PLTR, MSFT | -0.96% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, GOOGL | -1.03% | 0% |
| Perplexity | NVDA, META, MSFT, AMD, SOXL | +1.23% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | NVDA, XLE, XOM, VLO, OXY | -1.22% | 0% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | NVDA, XOM, CVX, XLE, APA | -0.89% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: GPT-6's picks for 2026-09-28.
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