Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-28
Grok 4.5 picked NVDA, XLE, XOM, VLO, OXY for a 1-day horizon. Portfolio return vs SPY: -1.22%. Picks that beat SPY: 0%.
| Experiment | Stock Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | stock-selection-v8 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Portfolio return vs SPY | -1.22% |
| Picks that beat SPY | 0% |
| Benchmark return | -0.37% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | -0.62% | 72% | -0.25% | No |
| 2 | XLE | -1.45% | 68% | -1.08% | No |
| 3 | XOM | -1.31% | 65% | -0.95% | No |
| 4 | VLO | -1.89% | 62% | -1.52% | No |
| 5 | OXY | -2.66% | 60% | -2.29% | No |
The model's market view
US equities opened lower amid a sharp rebound in crude oil prices after the US rejected Iran's proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI above $96 and Brent near $108. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to around 5.23%, heightening inflation and rate-hike concerns ahead of core PCE and the jobs report later in the week. Tech and growth names faced pressure while energy and related cyclicals showed relative strength. Breadth is mixed and volatility has edged higher; the session favors oil-levered names and any idiosyncratic positive catalysts over the broad market.
Why each pick
NVDA
Nvidia announced a record $150 billion share-repurchase authorization and new AI-agent security tools, driving the stock higher in early trading while the broader market declined. Relative strength versus SPY is pronounced on a day when semiconductors are otherwise soft. Thesis: buyback support and AI narrative resilience should allow NVDA to finish the session well ahead of the index. Risks: any escalation in Middle East tensions or a sharp further rise in yields could still pressure high-multiple tech, and the move may fade into the close if oil keeps climbing.
XLE
The Energy Select Sector SPDR is the purest liquid expression of the oil-price spike that is the dominant macro driver today. With WTI up more than 4% and futures pointing to continued strength, XLE is trading higher while SPY is lower. Thesis: energy should remain the relative-strength leader for the remainder of the session. Risks: any sudden diplomatic breakthrough that sends oil lower, or broad risk-off selling that overwhelms sector gains.
XOM
Exxon Mobil is rising in tandem with crude as the largest integrated major with significant upstream leverage. Early gains of roughly 1.4% contrast with SPY’s decline. Thesis: high-quality balance sheet and direct oil beta should keep XOM outperforming the index for the day. Risks: profit-taking after recent energy strength or a rapid reversal in oil prices on any Iran-related headlines.
VLO
Valero, a leading independent refiner, benefits from elevated crude prices and refining margins that typically expand when oil spikes on supply concerns. The stock is higher while the market is lower. Thesis: refining leverage plus energy-sector momentum supports outperformance versus SPY today. Risks: refining crack spreads can lag or compress if product demand softens, and the stock is already extended after strong September gains.
OXY
Occidental Petroleum offers higher operational leverage to crude prices than the integrated majors and is trading higher in early dealings. Thesis: pure-play upstream exposure should allow OXY to outperform a soft SPY on the oil-driven session. Risks: higher beta means larger drawdowns if oil reverses, and the name has been more volatile than XOM or XLE recently.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Portfolio return vs SPY | Picks that beat SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVDA, XOM, AAPL, PLTR, MSFT | -0.96% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, GOOGL | -1.03% | 0% |
| Perplexity | NVDA, META, MSFT, AMD, SOXL | +1.23% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | NVDA, XOM, CVX, XLE, APA | -0.89% | 0% |
| GPT-6 | XOM, CVX, IONQ, COP, KOD | +0.20% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Stock Selection: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-28.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.